172
FXZS60 NSTU 020005
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
105 PM SST Wed May 1 2024

.Short term...

Satellite imagery this morning and early afternoon shows showers
and thunderstorms from a trough currently to the east/northeast of
American Samoa. To the south, a ridge of high pressure moves
southeastward, further away from the region. This will allow the
trough to move over American Samoa later today and tonight. The
trough will bring plenty of moisture and instability into the
region, which will allow thunderstorms to continue developing
within the trough. Widespread showers are forecast throughout the
region with scattered thunderstorms tonight. Recent ASCAT imagery
shows stronger winds, compared to so far today, around 15 to 20
mph in the area of the trough. Winds will increase to that
strength tonight may bring gusty winds with potentially heavy
rainfall at times.

Another ridge from the southwest will move closer to the territory
from Thursday and Friday. This will slow down the movement of the
aforementioned trough to remain over the region. Therefore, the
forecast remains the same with widespread showers with a risk of
thunderstorms during this time. Winds are expected to remain
around 15 to 20 mph.

.Long term...

For the weekend, the trough is expected to move south. This will
decrease winds to up to 15 mph. The risk of rainfall will reduce,
from widespread to numerous (60% chance). Even though showers are
likely, it would be in the passing form and gusty winds are
possible when showers move through.

Winds are forecast to reduce to light and variable with scattered
passing showers (40% chance) for early next week as the trough
continues to slowly move southward.

&&

.Marine...

Recent altimeter data and data from a drifting buoy to the
east of the American Samoa islands shows seas between 7 to 9
feet where the trough is currently located. As the trough moves
over the region, winds are forecast to increase to a fresh
easterly breeze which will build sea heights over the American
Samoa coastal waters to around 7 to 9 feet. The trough is expected
to remain in the region through Friday, which will cause enhanced
sea conditions to remain during that time.

The trough is forecast to move south by the weekend. Wind driven
seas will ease as winds will decrease to a gentle to moderate
breeze to around 6 to 7 feet with the occasional 8 footers.


&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

LaPlante