Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FNUS75 KRIW 231122
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Spot Forecast for Monument Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Riverton WY
522 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions are expected at the burn unit today. Skies will be
mostly sunny, though high clouds will increase by mid afternoon.
Wind will be on the lighter side, generally downvalley or out of
the southwest all day. Humidity will drop through the afternoon,
bottoming out in the mid 20 percent range around 1700.
Light/downslope wind is expected after 2100.

Wednesday will be warmer and drier with similar upslope winds. A
few showers will build in the nearby higher elevations and drift
near the burn zone in the afternoon. A more unsettled pattern
begins to push in Thursday, bringing breezier winds and then
cooler/wetter conditions Friday through the weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 mph late in
                    the morning.
Ridgetop wind.......Northwest around 5 mph shifting to the north
                    early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL increasing to 3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph shifting to the west 9 to 15
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (47700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........43  48  42  39  30  31  36  45  50  61  57
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............27  31  34  40  44  47  50  52  56  55  53
RH..............50  49  49  42  38  35  31  31  26  27  31
20 FT wind dir..NW  NE  E   E   SE  E   N   NW  NW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   3   5   6   6   6   6   7   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.5   5   6       7   7   10  10  12  11  10
Ridge wind dir..NW  NW  E   E   E   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW
Ridge wind spd..5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.7 3.7 3.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.7   7   12  12  12  9   9   9   15  15  15
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/10003   3   7   7   7   21  21  21  48  48  48

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 31.
Max humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light5.
Ridgetop wind.......West 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 13 mph shifting to the south
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........60  59  57  54  48  41  36  36  39  43  45  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............51  48  44  40  38  37  36  35  35  34  34  33
RH..............32  35  43  50  52  52  56  59  56  56  56  58
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  W   NW  N
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   4   5   4   4   4   3   4   3   3
20 FT wind gust.11  10  7   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   4
Ridge wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
Ridge wind spd..15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  9   9   9   9   9   9   8   8   8
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100020  20  20  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
CWR.................1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......West around 5 mph, then increasing to
                    around 15 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL increasing to 6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph shifting to the west 7 to 14
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (72800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........41  35  28  23  22  24  28  34  40  45  49  52
Weather cov.....                                ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............32  34  37  40  44  49  53  56  58  60  59  58
RH..............61  56  54  52  51  46  39  35  33  31  33  36
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   SE  E   SE  S   W   W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   2   5   7   8   8   7   7
20 FT wind gust.4   4   4   5   5   6   7   10  11  11  12  12
Ridge wind dir..W   W   W   SE  SE  SE  W   W   W   W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 4.3 4.3 4.3 6.1 6.1 6.1
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   7   7   13  13  13  14  14  14
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/10003   3   3   6   6   6   47  47  47  73  73  73

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Cooler. Mostly cloudy. Showers, scattered thunderstorms and snow
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs around 50. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers with possible snow showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 30. Highs in the mid 40s. West winds
around 7 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Showers, snow showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows around 30.
Highs in the lower 40s. West winds around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Straub
Requested by...Wade Froseth
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411827.0/RIW
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL wade.froseth@usda.gov
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