Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 271048
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
648 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Two systems will be impacting our area today. The main one will
be low pressure moving from Georgia to the Carolina coastline
through Thursday morning. This will bring better rain chances
east of the Blue Ridge today into tonight. A front moving in
from the west will slowly push the coastal system east Thursday.
High pressure builds from the lower Mississippi Valley into the
Gulf Coast states Thursday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Better rain chances east of the Blue Ridge today as low
pressure works across the southeast U.S.

The models are becoming consistent enough to paint a wetter
picture across our piedmont of VA/NC today with less coverage
west.

Low pressure over southeast Georgia will slowly track
north/northeast into the Carolinas through tonight. Deeper
moisture convergence and lift over a warm front ahead of the low
will bring rainfall across the piedmont this morning into the
afternoon. While rain is possible in the mountains, kept pops in
the chance to low chance range, and overall mainly dry in
WV/far SW VA.

The 5h pattern shows a closed low over the upper MS Valley and
south to north flow which will keep the system slow moving.

Today will be cloudy though some breaks this afternoon are
likely in the mountains. Temperatures will likely be milder in
the our WV/SW VA mountains than in the piedmont, with 50s east
to lower 60s southwest.

Confidence is lower on low temperatures tonight as models have
some colder air tracking in by dawn Thursday with mid to upper
30s in the mountains to upper 40s in southside VA/NC piedmont.
If clouds linger and low pressure is slower, lows could be
higher. As the low moves into eastern NC late tonight and
support aloft tracks across central NC, some westward drift in
the rain is possible so keeping slight chance pops as far west
as WV/VA border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1). Rain system exits the eastern parts of the CWA Thursday
morning.

2). Trend toward breezy and cooler conditions Thursday into
Friday.


The low pressure that brings rain to the eastern parts of VA/NC
Wed-Thu will exit to the east by afternoon Thursday as the
parent upper trough takes on a negative tilt and moves off the
Mid-Atlantic coast by evening. High pressure will settle across
the region and to our south for Friday bringing warmer westerly
flow to the region Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, increasingly
zonal flow aloft will develop going into the weekend. A fat
moving upper-level disturbance tracking across the Ohio Valley
into PA Saturday will help to form a baroclinic zone/frontal
boundary to our north over the weekend. This front will
gradually work its way south, mainly through convective outflow
and cooling, into the first part of next week leading to an
increasingly unsettled pattern. Most of the CWA will remain dry
Saturday, but could see some showers work their way into the
northern portions of the CWA late Saturday, especially
along/north of the I-64 corridor.

Temperatures will bottom out Friday morning as a pocket of
around -6C to -8C sweeps through the region behind the departing
upper trough. Cold advection will help bring gusty west winds to
the area as well, but overall winds appear to remain below wind
advisory criteria except perhaps across some of the higher
ridges along/west of the Blue Ridge, especially areas of WV/far
southwest VA. Westerly flow will help to quickly moderate
temperatures back to above normal levels for the weekend.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- Low to Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled weather conditions expected through the period.

2) Looking at mostly above normal temperatures through the
period.

As noted in the "Short Term" section of this discussion, a
baroclinic zone/weak frontal boundary will form within an
overall zonal flow aloft over the Ohio Valley during the
weekend. Disturbances within the flow will help promote the
development of convection from time-to-time along this boundary,
one such occurrence expected Sunday. While this first round of
convection Sunday is expected to remain mainly north of the
CWA, it will help to push the frontal boundary/baroclinic zone a
bit further south. Subsequent disturbances will have a similar
effect on the baroclinic zone, allowing it to finally reach the
VA/NC border by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Consequently,
the chance for precipitation will increase steadily through the
period as well as from north to south. Yes, there could be some
thunder at times with this activity, especially early next week
as upper- level dynamics become more favorable and instability
increases with above normal temperatures reaching well into the
60s and even a few 70s. However, strong to severe thunderstorms
are not expected at this time as overall the dewpoints remain
too low and generally below the 55-degree F critical threshold.

Otherwise, the period will be characterized by considerable
cloud cover, especially north of the VA/NC border with scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms (mainly west of the Blue Ridge)
with precipitation chances steadily increasing between Sunday
and Tuesday. Temperatures will average above normal with lows
mostly in the 40s and highs mainly in the 60s west to the 70s
east.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Low to Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Wednesday...

Poor flying conditions will be prevalent for most of this period
as low pressure works from Georgia into the Carolinas, east of
the mountains Rainfall seems a good bet from ROA east to
LYH/DAN with some light rains further west this morning, but
looking less as we head through the day.

Ceilings/vsbys will improve to VFR at BLF/LWB this afternoon,
but could drop again to MVFR after 0z/Thu.

Winds will generally be light from the east/northeast, except
turning west/northwest this afternoon/evening in WV.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub-VFR remains into Thursday morning then cigs/vsbys should
improve to VFR by Thu afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds arrive Thu night into Friday but mainly
VFR, though some sub-VFR cigs possible at BLF.

A front may drop down from the north Saturday-Sunday with
scattered showers, but overall appears mainly VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...DS/WP


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