Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 271022
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
522 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread frost and areas of freeze will occur again tonight
  into tomorrow morning.

- A warming trend will continue through late this week into the
  weekend. Forecast highs are 10-15 degrees above the
  climatological normal this weekend.

- Windy conditions will develop Friday, with southwest wind
  gusts of 30-40 mph likely along and west of Highway 65.

- There is the potential for active weather early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Infrared satellite imagery shows a stratus deck exiting out of
eastern Missouri early this morning along with the cold front.
Surface high pressure will take its place, allowing for mostly
clear skies. Therefore, temperatures will at least be able to
rebound into the 50s this afternoon after a cold and frosty
morning.

Another night of widespread frost appears likely tonight with
chilly temperatures, clear skies, and light winds producing a
good radiational cooling setup. However, temperatures look to
be a touch warmer than this morning; the NBM mean keeps
temperatures above the typical 28 degree hard freeze threshold
across nearly the entire area. The exceptions will likely be in
sheltered valleys of the eastern Ozarks, which may be better
characterized by the NBM 25th percentile temperatures in the mid
to upper 20s. Thus, additional freeze headlines were not issued
with this forecast package but will be re-evaluated in the
afternoon.

Temperatures will continue on a steady climb Thursday as upper-
level ridging shifts east through the Plains. Lows Thursday
night range from the upper 30s across the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 40s west of Springfield.

Dew points were also lowered a few degrees Thursday to account
for mixing and model tendencies to overdo moisture on the first
day of southerly flow. While winds look to remain modest (10-15
mph), locally elevated fire danger is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Windy and warm conditions will be the weather of note Friday. A
strengthening lee-low on the eastern side of the Rockies will
increase the surface pressure gradient across the region.
Likewise, medium-range guidance depicts strong southwesterly 850
mb flow nudging into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri
Friday afternoon. This tight pressure gradient and a well mixed
thermodynamic profile would allow for wind gusts of 30-40 mph,
particularly west of Highway 65. It should be noted that a
roughly 4-6 mph difference exists between the current
operational NBM and the experimental version due to bias
differences. Temperatures will climb above normal Friday as
well, with forecast highs in the low to mid 70s. The warming
trend will continue into the weekend, with highs in the mid 70s
to near 80. These temperatures are 10-15 degrees above the
climatological normal.

As an upper-level disturbance begins to move onshore across the
Pacific coast Saturday, an east-west oriented surface front
looks to set up across central Missouri. With gradually
increasing moisture return, some ensemble guidance begins to
develop isolated to scattered showers along the front as early
as Friday night.

Better shower and thunderstorm chances are introduced Sunday
night into Monday as the aforementioned upper-level disturbance
shifts east. While details remain scarce, the potential for
severe weather will need to be monitored in the coming days.
LREF clusters depict ensemble solutions differing with regard
to how far south the low digs across the southwestern CONUS.
This detail will influence the timing of the better lift, and if
the southern wave phases with the northern wave. Nonetheless,
the CIPS severe analog and the CSU machine learning system both
highlight the potential for severe weather for our area.

Given the uncertainty in the timing of the Sunday night/Monday
system, precipitation chances Tuesday are questionable. Current
NBM chances drop below 15% Tuesday afternoon. Much cooler
temperatures move in behind this system, with forecast highs in
the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A few mid-
level clouds to start will dissipate throughout the morning.
Winds will remain light throughout the forecast period,
switching from northwesterly to southerly around 05Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Record High Temperatures:

March 30:
KUNO: 82/1963
KVIH: 80/1967

April 1:
KUNO: 86/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 1:
KSGF: 62/1946

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>096-101>103.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio
CLIMATE...Camden


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