187
FXUS66 KSGX 281629
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
929 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions continue through much of this week. Marine
layer low clouds and fog will likely be confined to the coast and
the western coastal valleys during this time. The mountains and
deserts will also experience breezy winds from the west each
afternoon and evening. There is a chance for some weak Santa Ana
winds on Thursday, followed by another round of cooler and
breezier weather by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

9 AM Update: Low clouds have cleared the coast of Southern
California, setting the stage for a pleasant day with seasonal
temperatures. Winds from the west are still expected to pick up
over the mountains and deserts later this afternoon and evening,
though winds today are expected to be weaker than yesterdays with
peak gusts generally in the 25-40 mph range. The forecast
generally looks on track and no major changes are planned this
afternoon.

Previous Discussion Issued at 155 AM PDT:

A weak coastal eddy is helping low clouds sneak near the coast
this morning. Latest WRF/HRRR guidance show this regime occurring
over the next few days, through Tuesday, which will prompt low
clouds and patchy fog within 10 miles of the coast. Today will be
noticeably warmer, especially away from the immediate coast with
highs near 80 across the Inland Empire and low 90s across the
Coachella Valley and Anza Borrego Desert.

Warming will continue by Monday and Tuesday as weak high pressure
prevails over the region, with many areas along and west of the
mountains getting into the mid/upper 60s at the beaches and higher
elevations to lower 80s across the Inland Empire and High Desert.
NBM indicates breezy west winds each afternoon/evening across the
mountains and deserts with gusts near 20-30 MPH.

A passing trough across the Pacific Northwest will tighten the
pressure gradient over our region, leading to increased onshore
flow and a deeper marine layer. Temperatures will remain close to
slightly above average. Ensemble clusters are still in
disagreement on the position of where this trough goes, but
depending how far south it goes across the Great Basin, it will
generate Santa Ana winds. For now, the winds look weak with low
probabilities of winds greater than 30 MPH per latest NBM
guidance. Another trough may form over the western U.S., leading
to more cooler and breezier weather by later next week with
continued dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
281622Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN clouds with ceilings 1,500 feet AGL
are rapidly dissipating, last around KSAN. Expect similar clouds
and ceiling developing late tonight between 06 to 09 UTC mainly for
CRQ to SAN.

Mountains/Deserts...Clear through today. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 kt in deserts after 00 UTC and locally in
mountains after 18 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Adams
AVIATION/MARINE...Tardy