812
FXUS01 KWBC 070759
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Tue May 07 2024

Valid 12Z Tue May 07 2024 - 12Z Thu May 09 2024

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and over parts of the Southern Plains,
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on
Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio Valley on Tuesday and over parts of the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday...

...Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies...

A front extending from the Northern Plains to the Middle
Mississippi Valley and then to the Southern Plain on Tuesday will
develop a wave of low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes by
Wednesday. The boundary will move off the Northeast Coast by
Thursday as a second wave of low pressure develops over the
Southern Plains and moves to the Ohio Valley by Thursday.

As the front advances eastward on Tuesday, it will bring with it
showers and severe thunderstorms, particularly over parts of the
Ohio Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley. In light of this, the
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of Indiana, western Ohio, and
north-central Kentucky through Wednesday morning.  The potential
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. There is also a heightened threat of EF2 to EF5
tornadoes and hail two inches or greater over the area.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain
over parts of southern Indiana, southwestern Ohio, and
north-central Kentucky. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio
Valley through Wednesday morning.  The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Northeast, Southeast, Southern Plains, Central Gulf Coast, and
Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, as the second wave of low pressure moves out of the
Southern Plains into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, the
storm will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of
Oklahoma, a small part of Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky,
southeastern Illinois, southern Indiana, Tennessee, and a small
portion of Mississippi. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Southern Plains from Wednesday through Thursday morning.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.  There will be the added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys. Moreover, there will be an additional threat of hail two
inches or greater over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys,
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Plains.

Further, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to
develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the region from
Wednesday into Thursday morning.  The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Northeast to Southeast on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the northwestern sector of the
country will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of
the Pacific Northwest through late Tuesday night. The system will
produce rain over parts of the Northern High Plains and heavy snow
over parts of the Northern Rockies on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$