388
FXUS62 KTBW 061811
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
211 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Above average temperatures with moderately dry conditions
continue today as a high pressure system situated in the Atlantic
keeps the southeasterly flow over the area. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms could develop later this afternoon/evening as the
west coast sea breeze and east coast sea breeze finally collide.
However, rain chances still remain low overall, with best chances
east of I75. Storms that do develop will remain largely stationary
as the steering flows aloft remain light. This means, localized
heavy rainfall could occur. If there is enough lift, and storms
are able to develop a stronger core, small hail could be possible
with 500mb temps right around -9 degrees. Conditions will begin to
settle overnight, with tomorrow much of the same expected.

Heat remains the major concern this week with a stronger ridge
likely to build in, and the Atlantic Surface ridge axis shifting
further south over the area. Widespread low to mid 90s expected each
afternoon. Wednesday and Thursday look to be the hottest of the
week, with limited rain chances and mostly sunny skies. Remember to
drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks when doing any
outside activities. Moving towards the weekend, a weak frontal
boundary approaches the area increasing rain chances slight Friday
night into Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period. SE breeze shifts
onshore with sea breeze development. Only concern would be the
chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms. However, these will
likely develop further inland and remain stationary. Much the
same tomorrow. By mid week, even less shower development expected.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Southeasterly flow continues, with a shift onshore as the
afternoon seabreeze develops. No major marine concerns through the
week as high pressure dominates conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Warm, dry conditions expected through the week, with no major
fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  89  74  90 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  72  92  74  94 /  10  20   0  10
GIF  71  93  72  95 /  20  30   0  10
SRQ  72  87  72  88 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  66  91  66  91 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  76  88  77  89 /  10  10   0   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn