Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
042
FXXX10 KWNP 140031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 14-May 16 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 14-May 16 2024
May 14 May 15 May 16
00-03UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 2.33
03-06UT 3.33 3.67 2.00
06-09UT 2.67 3.00 2.67
09-12UT 2.33 2.33 2.33
12-15UT 2.33 2.67 2.00
15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 2.67
18-21UT 5.67 (G2) 3.00 3.00
21-00UT 4.33 3.00 2.33
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 14
May and G1 conditions are likely on 15 May as CME influence wanes.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 14-May 16 2024
May 14 May 15 May 16
S1 or greater 99% 25% 5%
Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected on 14 May with
a chance on 15 May due to the eruptive potential from Region 3664.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 13 2024 0944 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 14-May 16 2024
May 14 May 15 May 16
R1-R2 80% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 40% 10% 10%
Rationale: R1-R3 (Minor-Strong) conditions are expected on 14 May due
to the flare potential of Region 3664. As the region rotates around the
Suns W limb, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) probabilities drop to just a chance
from the remaining active regions on the Suns visible disk.