National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FNUS75 KTFX 120930
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Eitten Ridge unit 1...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
330 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MDT on April 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...Gusty erratic winds possible with thunderstorms today...

.DISCUSSION...
Light rain showers possible before 10 AM, with any rainfall
amounts less than 0.03 inches. A better chance for storms will
occur from 6 PM to 8 PM tonight, with storm storms producing
strong wind gusts. It will be mild today, with low humidity
for a few hours. Similar conditions expected for Sat/Sun but
the chance for storms is slightly lower. It will be much
colder with snow likely by Tuesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    morning rain showers. Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1700, then 2.
Max temperature.....63-68.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    west 15 to 20 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph increasing to 25 to 30
                    mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth early in the morning.

TIME (MDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........68  65  44  15  10  12  17  33  36  37  39
Weather cov.....                                SCH     SCH
Weather type....                                RN      RW
Tstm cov........                                        SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............37  40  46  53  57  59  63  64  65  65  64
RH..............54  52  45  42  37  34  31  30  29  29  30
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  20  15  15
20 FT wind gust.15  15  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 7.5 8.5 9.0 9.0 9.0
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.15  15  20  20  25  25  30  30  30  25  25
Haines index....M   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of rain late in the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....40-45.
Max humidity........70-75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 5 mph early in the evening.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph becoming southwest 5 to 10
                    mph in the evening and overnight, then
                    increasing to around 15 mph after 3 am.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........60  60  60  82  70  65  70  60  60  60  55  50
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RN  RN
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............63  60  54  51  49  47  47  46  46  45  45  45
RH..............32  36  45  51  56  59  61  58  60  62  59  62
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..15  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.20  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...7.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW
Transp wind spd.20  10  5   10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....63-68.
Min humidity........31-36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    west in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth early in the morning.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........48  30  32  23  15  24  35  35  35  35  35  35
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............44  45  47  51  57  59  62  63  64  64  65  64
RH..............62  60  58  53  47  43  39  37  37  37  36  36
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.10      15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 2.0 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.0 6.5
Transp wind dir.W   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.15  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  15  15
Haines index....M   M   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Brusda
Requested by...Kyle Marquardt
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410419.0/TFX
.DELDT 04/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle.marquardt@usda.gov