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000
FXUS64 KTSA 171717
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Low clouds and patchy fog had developed this morning generally
along and south of a warm front currently near the I-40 corridor.
This front will lift north through the day as a sfc low deepens
over SE CO/ SW KS. By mid to late afternoon, the front is
projected to span from N-Central OK east-southeast into W-Central
AR. Some CAMs have suggested an isolated shower or storm may
develop this afternoon or early evening near this boundary/ the
terrain in W-Central AR. However, opted to keep PoPs below
mentionable values for now due to limited potential and
expectation for limited coverage (if any). Otherwise, low clouds
will continue to erode this morning with some high clouds
persisting especially across the southern half of the CWA. High
temps look on track, climbing well into the 80s... perhaps
approaching 90 in some spots along/ west of Hwy 75. Winds will be
much lighter today, generally 5-15 mph with a few gusts to near
20 mph possible this afternoon, primarily along/ west of Hwy 75
where pressure gradients will be tighter. Low storm chances return
this evening near the OK-KS border.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

An isolated thunderstorm or two may develop near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border this evening, but the better chances will
remain to the north. If a storm does develop, it may become severe
with large hail being the main threat. Otherwise it will be a
breezy and mild night, with overnight lows mainly in the 65-70
degree range.

A strong cold front will sweep southeast across the area Thursday.
Warm and humid conditions will continue ahead of the front, with
gusty north winds and falling afternoon temperatures in its wake
across northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front, with
some of the storms possibly becoming severe. Overall, have
lowered the NBM pops in northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon
where they seem much too high given a relatively early frontal
passage.

Showers and storms will exit the area later Thursday evening, with
much cooler temperatures expected Friday through the weekend. An
upper wave is expected to result in showers and a few
thunderstorms from late Friday through early Sunday, with
southern parts of the forecast area being the most favored
locations for rainfall.

After a dry start to next week Monday, unsettled weather looks to
return towards the middle of the week. Model discrepancies are
large by that time, so stuck close to the NBM solution for now
beyond Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions expected today into early tonight for all TAF
sites. Potential for a shower or storm to develop in NW AR this
afternoon/ evening, but did not include in forecast due to low
probability. A shower or storm may also impact BVO late this
evening/ early overnight, but again, probability is too low to
mention at this time. Low clouds build into much of E OK and NW AR
late overnight & tomorrow morning providing MVFR conditions. A
strong cold front approaches the region by the end of the forecast
period with increasing chances of storms across NE OK by 18z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  82  48  66 /  10  30  10  10
FSM   66  86  55  71 /  10  50  40  20
MLC   69  84  52  68 /  10  40  30  20
BVO   66  79  45  66 /  20  40   0  10
FYV   65  84  48  68 /   0  40  30  10
BYV   65  85  47  67 /   0  50  30  10
MKO   67  85  49  69 /   0  50  20  20
MIO   68  81  45  65 /  20  50  10  10
F10   68  85  49  68 /   0  40  20  20
HHW   67  83  55  68 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43