Generic Space Environment Advisory
Issued by NWS

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ADVOUT

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado, USA

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #14-37
2014 September 14 at 8:34 p.m. MDT (2014 September 15 0234 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For September 8-14

A category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm occurred on 0155 UTC on 12 September due to a coronal mass ejection (CME) that was associated with a long duration M4/1n xray flare that originated from Region 2158 (N16, L=87, class/area Dkc/440 on 11 September) on 09 September.
A category G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm occurred at 1741 UTC on 12 September due to a coronal mass ejection (CME) that was associated with an X1/2b xray flare that originated from Region 2158 (N16, L=87, class/area Dkc/440 on 11 September) on 10 September.
A category G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm also occurred at 2302 UTC on 12 September due to the same coronal mass ejection (CME) that was associated with an X1/2b xray flare that originated from Region 2158 (N16, L=87, class/area Dkc/440 on 11 September) on 10 September.

A category S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm (10MeV > 10 pfu) was observed at 0240 UTC on 11 September associated with solar activity from active sunspot region 2158.  The 100MeV integrated flux also exceeded the 1 pfu threshold.
A category S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm (10MeV > 100 pfu) was observed at 1550 UTC on 12 September, also associated with solar activity from active sunspot region 2158.

Category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 09 September at 0029 UTC, due to flare activity from active sunspot region 2158.
Category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 11 September at 1526 and 2126 UTC, due to flare activity from active sunspot region 2146.
Category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 14 September at 0216 UTC, due to flare activity from active sunspot region 2157
Category R3 (Strong) radio blackouts were observed on 10 September at 1745 UTC, due to flare activity from active sunspot region 2158.


Outlook For September 15-21

There is a slight chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on 16 and 17 September due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects combined with an expected arrival of a CME associated with a filament lift off on 12 September.

Category S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are possible due to solar flare activity from various sunspot regions on the sun.

There is a chance for R1 (Minor) and R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackouts while Regions 2157 and 2158 transit the western limb with increasing probabilities for R1 and R2 Radio Blackouts as old Region 2149 (N09, L=302) and Region 2151 (S08, L=273) return to the visible disk.


Current space weather conditions at http://swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/,
http://swpc.noaa.gov/today.html and  http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/

Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA,
USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Service (ISES)
and other observatories, universities, and institutions. For more
information, including email services, see SWPC`s Space Weather
Advisories Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov/advisories or (303) 497-5127.



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