Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070559
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1259 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex area of low pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast
tonight with high pressure building in from the west Wednesday.
A strong cold front crosses the region Thursday. Canadian high
pressure builds into the area for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Lo pres exiting the VA Capes this evening...will continue to move
ENE and away from the coast overnight. The lo will be taking the
bulk of the significant RA off the coast by 05Z/07...leaving lo
level cloudiness and spotty -RA in its wake. NNW winds remaining
gusty until after midnight then waning later on. Typically
difficult for any significant clearing in wake of lo pres when
winds remains from the NNW. Lows range from the m30s NW to m-u40s
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the region Wed. Downsloping flow
will aid to dry the column out. Thus, morning clouds should give way
to a pt to mstly sunny afternoon. Near seasonable temperatures with
highs in the mid 50`s. Anomalous northern stream low builds into
southeast Canada Wed night as the associated trough digs into the
eastern US. A strong, fast moving cold front will reach the central
Appalachians by late Wed night. Clouds increase, but dry conditions
expected thru 12Z Thurs. Lows 35 to 40.

Models continue to push the strong cold front across the area Thurs
as the trough axis lags behind. Moisture will be limited with PW`s
at or below three quarters of an inch. While the front is progged to
outrun the best height falls, models continue to show a line of
showers along the boundary. Will maintain low chance pops, with the
focus for shwrs shifting to the eastern half of the fa Thurs aftrn.
Highs in the 50s.

Dry and colder Thurs night and Fri as Canadian high pressure builds
east. Lows Thurs night in the mid-upr 20s except lwr30s along
thecoast. Highs Fri in the lwr 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long term period starts off Fri night/Sat with dry weather as sfc
high pressure builds directly over the Mid Atlc. Main story in the
extended will be cold temps, with lows in the low/mid 20s Fri night
and Sat night. High temps Fri and Sat avg in the low 40s both days.
Next chance of pcpn arrives Sun night/Mon with an approaching cold
front, with the best chance of rain being during the day Mon based
on the 12Z GFS/ECMWF (40% pops). High temps Mon in the mid/upr 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread IFR conditions observed across the forecast area as low
pressure centers just offshore. Ceilings are generally between 500
and 700 feet AGL. Surface winds northwest 5-10 knots inland and
10-15 knots with a few gusts of 25 knots near the coast. Lingering
light rain persists along the Maryland coast, but dry elsewhere.
Expect IFR conditions to persist through the overnight period,
with some improvement possible over the Piedmont. However, any
breaks in the clouds over the Piedmont into central Virginia will
aid in fog development. Have brought some MVFR fog into KRIC late
tonight, but main impact will remain the low ceilings.

Ceilings will slowly lift/erode mid to late morning, but expect
low to mid clouds to persist along the coast into the afternoon
thanks to a moist northerly flow. VFR conditions return inland
this afternoon. Northwest winds generally around 10 knots with a
few gusts around 20 knots near the coast.

OUTLOOK...A strong cold front impacts the area on Thursday, with
only a quick chance for showers Thursday afternoon. High pressure
returns Friday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest sfc analysis shows low pressure developing near the NC coast
with another area of low pressure over the OH Valley. The former low
will strengthen this eveng/tonight as it pushes off the coast.
Expect strong SCA conditions over at least the Bay and ocean with
this system, with occasional gusts to gale force possible. Will
maintain the SCA for now. Seas may reach 7-9 ft out 20 nm.
Winds/waves/seas then drop during the day Wed as weak high pressure
builds into the area. Sca conditions may linger until Wed eveng over
the ocean with 5 ft seas continuing. A strong cold front then pushes
across the waters Thu, with at least strong SCA conditions expected
Thu night through Fri night. Sub-SCA conditions return over the
weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ630>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/LSA
MARINE...MAS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.