Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1247 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC LO PRES CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FM THE CST OVRNGT...WHILE SFC HI
PRES FM THE MID MS VLY BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE MTNS INTO THE
MDATLC RGN. EARLIER SHRAS HAVE DISSIPATED...RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SLO TO BREAK INVOF SE VA/NE NC PAST FEW HRS. XPCG CLRG FOR
THOSE AREAS OVRNGT...W/ MNLY SKC ELSW. THE CLDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
TEMPS UP OVR SE VA/NE NC...BUT THAT LIKELY TO CHANGE SOON. LO
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE M/U20S W OF I 95 TO THE L/M30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA DURING TODAY...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT JUST HI CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENG THRU SAT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT ALOFT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO
NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING...AS CAA CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NGT INTO MON...AS HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM






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