Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191502
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
EASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~993 MB LO PRES OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH BROAD ~1027 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
AND INTO THE MID ATLC/SE STATES. GENLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT BKN/OVC CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER
NORTHERN VA AND SOME OF THIS HAS ROTATED SE AND WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN NECK/ERN SHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTN. AS THE HIGH SPREADS E
THIS AFTN SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS ACRS THE NE ERODE. MAIN UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NE THROUGH 18Z (MOSTLY CLOUDY)...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MIXING AREA
SOUNDINGS TO AROUND 925 MB SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/AROUND 50 F OVER INTERIOR NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S ON THE ERN SHORE.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF APPROACHING THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVER THE OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND
LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S (TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL
RAPIDLY AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY LATE IN THE EVENING AS CLOUDS
SLOWLY INCREASE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER. SFC LO PRES SLIDES E
FM THE GOM SAT...WITH JUST A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF THE LO SHOWING
OFF THE SE CST SAT NGT. 00Z GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NRN ADVANCEMENT OF
PCPN SAT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER ON AVG. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
20-30%...AND ONLY S OF I-64. COULD BE SOME SN/PL MIXED IN OVR THE
SRN PIEDMONT BUT PRIMARILY EXPECTING RA. ANY PCPN ENDS EVERYWHERE
BY LATE SAT AFTN. DRY CONDS THEN FOR SAT NGT AND SUN AS HI PRES
CENTERED OVR THE NE STATES STRETCHES DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
TEMPS OVR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BLO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE POPS THRU THE PERIOD (E.G. 60% MON AND
TUE NGT/WED) AS CONFIDENCE FOR PCPN AS INCREASED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
TRACK NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST 18/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN
THIS POPS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. POPS INCREASE TO
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NW...TO AROUND 40 SE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY (BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE)...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 18/12Z GFS TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE 18/12Z ECMWF TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER THE RAIN IS MORE STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY. IF
THE FARTHER W 18/12Z GFS WERE TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AOA 60F REMAIN OFFSHORE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF FA NXT FEW HRS. OTW...ONLY SCT
CLOUDS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. N WINDS A0B 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 4-5 K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURGE BEHIND DEPARTING S/W SHUD REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH A GUST OR TWO TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE BAY NOT OUT OF THE QSTN
THRU NOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING A NRLY FLOW GOING AOB 15 KTS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKS NE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON & MON NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA
WITH A WIND BECOMING WESTERLY BY TUE. A STRONGER LOW TRACKS W OF THE
MOUNTAINS TUES NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR






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