Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH 1022 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS SITUATED OVER SE CANADA.
INCLUDED A SLGT CHC-CHC OF A SHRA THRU LATE THIS AFTN OVER NE NC
WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY EXPECTED...INCLUDING NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY
RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENG HRS AS SFC HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD IN
FM THE NW. OTWS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TNGT WITH LO TEMPS
RANGING FM NR 60 OVER THE PIEDMONT TO NR 70 NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF FRI WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERING OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX WITH A MSTLY SUNNY
SKY AND LO HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE FRI NGT INTO SAT
WITH UPR-LEVEL ENERGY STAYING N OF THE FA AND DRY WX CONTINUING.
AFTER ERLY MORNG LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S...TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN
THE MID/UPR 80S SAT AFTN. SLGT WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN
WITH HIGHS NR 90 IN MANY SPOTS AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCLUDED A
SLGT CHC OF A SHRA/TSTM SUN AS SOME MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT APPROACH FM THE SW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD
ATTM HENCE THE LO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US.
WHETHER THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SOME
FORM OF TS ERIKA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THIS...ONLY DIURNAL POPS ARE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE 20-30%
RANGE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW...WITH VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH FRIDAY. MID CLDS ARE CURRENTLY
RESTRICTED TO NE NC...AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF
THE SE ON FRIDAY AT KRIC/SBY BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NEAR/JUST N/E OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WKND...WITH GENLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING (COULD SEE SOME PATCHY EARLY AM FOG SAT/SUN).

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED...AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 4 FT...AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS HELPING TO DRIVE A 15 KT
NE WIND OFF THE COAST OF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE
ELEVATED TO AROUND 4 FEET IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE N-NE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NUDGES EWD AND LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
3-4FT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...RIVERS AND SOUND. COULD BE AN ISOLATED 3 FOOT WAVE NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUH 06Z...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE 1-2 FT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE FROM NE-SE TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND
SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 10-15KT.
SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/WRS
MARINE...AJZ/WRS



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