Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
FXUS61 KAKQ 311057
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
657 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly slide
northeast along the Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front
then approaches from the west...crossing the area early Friday
into Friday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Went ahead and issued dense fog advy until 8am/12z for Piedmont
counties (Mecklenburg/Brunswick north to Louisa). SPS further east
wl lkly be re-issued through mid-morning.
Latest sfc analysis shows the remnant low of Post-Tropical Storm
Bonnie centered about 65 mi NNE of CHS per 09z advisory from NHC.
Regional radar mosaic showing showers sliding farther offshore,
generally focused along and just east of a trough of low pressure
just off the Carolina/mid-atlantic coast. Once again noting some
fog developing across the sw corner of the area, with the NARRE
and HRRR both showing some areas of fog/low stratus becoming a bit
more widespread in a few hrs time. Will keep an eye on this for
another round of SPS` toward daybreak.
Now post-tropical remnants of Bonnie will continue to meander along
the Carolina coast today. Continued mild and moderately humid,
with low clouds and morning fog again giving way to increasing
aftn clouds and mainly diurnally driven showers and storms. Expect
most of pcpn to be focused mainly along the llvl convergence
boundary lifting across NE NC/SE VA counties this afternoon into
early evening. Farther north, Showers/thunderstorms will be lower
in areal coverage across northern tier of the local area, owing to
meager forcing aloft and relative subsidence in low levels behind
a weak front dropping across the area. Still, given the very moist
airmass, at least a low pop is warranted. Forecast rain chances
remain in chance to low end likely range 50-60% across the
southeast, tapering back to slight chance to low end chance across
the northeastern 1/3 of the forecast area. Look for highs today in
the low-mid 80s, coolest across the southeastern coastal plain
areas (NE NC/SE VA), where clouds should be thickest with greater
As with last night, expect forcing for ascent to shunt
offshore, with diminishing areal coverage of showers. Will
therefore go with a slight chc pop overnight tonight with
additional areas of fog late. Early morning lows mostly in the
low to mid 60s.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again very little change to sensible wx on Wednesday. The
weakening remnant low lifts up toward the southern outer
banks/Crystal Coast Region, with more mainly diurnally-driven
showers and storms across our area. Continued seasonably warm and
moderately humid w/highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Forecast
PoPs Wednesday range from 20-30 percent inland to 40-50 percent
along the coast.
GFS a bit quicker than the operational ECMWF clearing out the
low for Thursday, and have gone with a blended solution for now
which is in good agreement with the going forecast. Bit of a
complicated setup for Thursday, with sfc low lingering off the
Northern OBX as weak cool front crosses in from the west late in
the day. Given the slower timing with the blended solution,
expect that the inherited slight chc pops will be sufficient
inland, with higher pops closer to the coast with the departing
low. Warmer and still moderately humid with highs in the low to
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled wx expected through most of the extended pd. Remnant lo
pres to be slowly kicked out well off the coast Thu ngt through
Fri w/ approach of a cold front fm the nw and S/W aloft tracking
fm the Great Lakes/Oh Vly to the NE states. The front crosses the
fa Fri aftn/eve shras and psbl tstms...then stalls over the
Carolinas Fri ngt through Sat. The front is expected to be pulled
back N by Sun as a deep trough aloft dives SE through the Great
Lakes/Oh Vly...resulting in additional chcs for shras/tstms into
Highs Fri fm the u70s on the Eastern shore to the l-m80s
elsewhere...then in the m-u70s at the coast and l80s inland
Sat/Sun and Mon. Lows in the 60s.
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rainfall has come to an end across most of the Mid Atlantic Region
early this morning with areas of fog and low stratus occurring
primarily along/south of the interstate 64 travel corridor.
Conditions at KRIC and KSBY are expected to drop to LIFR cigs with
visibilities around 1SM after 31/0900Z...improving to MVFR/VFR
cigs and visibilities after 31/1300Z. Coastal TAF sites KECG,
KORF, and KPHF should experience LIFR cigs with visibilities of
2-4SM during the same timeframe with similar improvements after
31/1300Z. The remnants of Bonnie over the Carolinas will continue
to wrap rain showers into the area through Wed night primarily
from KRIC swd...keeping periods of rain showers and aftn thunder
in the forecast during this time in addition to potentially foggy
conditions and LIFR cigs each night. Onshore E winds of 10kt or
less will be common at all TAF sites today/tonight. Winds become
more ene Wed and increase to 10-15kt along the immediate coast
The remnant low of Bonnie is then expected to track over the NC
Outer Banks on Thu and off the Mid Atlantic coast/Delmarva on
Fri...finally pushing out to sea by Fri night as a cold front
crosses the region. Precipitation should become more focused along
far Southeast VA and Northeast NC Thu/Thu night and moving off the
coast on Fri. Precipitation with the incoming cold front is
expected to cross the area from nw to se Fri aftn/evening. The
front stalls along the Carolinas on Sat and another round of
showers will be possible across the se half of the area (dry nw).
Thunderstorms will be possible each aftn/evening Thu-Sat.
update...SCA flags issued through 100 PM this aftn for srn waters
from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Light due to seas of 4-5ft.
Persistent onshore swell from the remnants of Bonnie are the
culprit. Will monitor seas through this morning should the SCA
flags need to be extended.
Patchy fog on Ern VA rivers well inland from Ches Bay and invof
Ocean City, MD. Conditions should improve by mid morning.
Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions anticipated over the
waters with east winds aob 10kt today/tonight. The remnants of
Bonnie over the Carolinas will continue to wrap rain showers into
the area through Wed night primarily from Cape Charles Light/New
Point Comfort swd...keeping periods of rain showers and aftn
thunder in the forecast during this time. Seas 3-4ft/waves 1-2ft.
Winds become more ene Wed and increase to 10-15kt along the
immediate coast through Thu as the remnant low of Bonnie tracks
over the NC Outer Banks during Thu and off the Mid Atlantic
coast/Delmarva on Fri. Seas expected to build to 4-5ft Wed night
into Thu before subsiding to 3-4ft Thu night. Waves build to 2-3ft
and then diminish to 1-2ft during the same timeframe. The last of
Bonnie finally gets pushed out to sea by Fri night as a cold front
crosses the region Fri aftn and across the waters Fri night. Winds
become more nely and diminish to 10kt or less on Fri...becoming
s-se ahead of the approaching front late Fri aftn into Fri evening.
The front stalls along the Carolinas on Sat and another round of
showers and aftn thunderstorms will be possible. Wind direction
briefly turns w-ne behind the front Fri night/Sat morning, and then
settles to a more sly direction through the rest of the upcoming
weekend...generally aob 15kt.
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight May 30 is
9.79", adding to the new record for the month of May. Additional
rainfall is possible through this evening, which could push the
monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would only be the
second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month prior to July.
The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08").
Top 5 wettest months of May at Richmond...
1. 9.79" 2016 (Through 5/30)
2. 9.13" 1889
3. 8.98" 1873
4. 8.87" 1972
5. 8.67" 1886
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-