Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291439
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1039 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the northwest this Memorial Day
and stalls north of the region Tuesday into Wednesday.
Meanwhile, weak low pressure tracks across North Carolina
tonight and off the Outer Banks Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest surface analysis places weak low pressure now well off
the Delmarva coast, with associated sfc warm front lifting
across Central VA at midday. To the west, a slow moving cold
front crossing the central Appalachians from the Mid-South/Ohio
Valley.

Stratus/fog has largely eroded with arrival of drier air
from the W-SW, bringing a partly to mostly sunny late
morning/early afternoon for most of the area, with decreasing
cloudiness across the MD Eastern Shore over the next few hours.
Forecast highs today still look good...and range mainly in the
mid/upper 80s for central/srn/SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures will
be lower over the Ern Shore where stratus will be slower to
erode, with highs generally in the mid 70s to near 80, and only
upper 60s to around 70 for the MD beaches.

Still little support among Hi-Res CAMs for widespread
showers/T-Storms during the day today. However, some isolated
pulse-type convection remains possible in association with
sea/bay-breeze initiating over the Ern Shore and wrn shore of
the Bay by early afternoon, and therefore have a 20% POP along
and east of I-95 for the mid to late aftn hours. Sky cover
averages partly to mostly sunny early, with increasing clouds
late. Bumped up cloud cover over the south in anticipation of
some convective debris clouds getting shunted in our direction
by late afternoon in W-SW flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lull in precipitation early in the evening. However, expect
showers to re-develop by mid to late evening, owing to low
pressure lifting across central NC toward SE VA/NE NC
w/associated shortwave energy pushing across the southern third
of the area within WSW flow aloft. Forecast PoPs area generally
20-40% across srn/SE VA/NC NC, with thunder maintained
overnight due to the presence of some mid- level instability.
Partly to mostly cloudy with lows ranging through the 60s.

00Z/29 guidance continues to show that the cold front becomes
aligned parallel to WSW flow aloft Tuesday, stalling immediately
N of the region and perhaps pushing into the MD Ern Shore.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned weak surface low pushes off the
Outer Banks Tuesday morning. The chc for aftn/evening
showers/tstms will diminish Tuesday, though will continue with
20-40% PoPs in far srn and SE VA/NE NC, and 20-30% for the Nrn
Neck/Ern Shore. Highs Tuesday range from the mid 70s to around
80 at the coast to the mid 80s inland, after morning lows
ranging through the 60s.

There will be little change in conditions Tuesday night into
Wednesday. An upper level trough will sharpen over the Great
Lakes Wednesday, but there is a lack of any trigger for
convective development Wednesday aftn. Lows Tuesday night range
through the 60s, followed by highs Wednesday in the upper
70s/around 80 at the coast to the mid 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term period beginning Wednesday night will start off mainly
dry with high pressure over the Mid Atlantic States Thursday. The
high will merge with the Bermuda High pressure ridge. This will
promote a slight warming trend and an increase of moisture. A
frontal boundary will settle over northern portions of the Mid
Atlantic States and help to trigger scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms over the region.

High temperatures will range from 80 to 85 but slightly cooler at
the beaches. Lows of 60 to 65 Thursday and Friday mornings warm to
the mid to upper 60s Saturday and Sunday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The current analysis shows low pressure off the Delmarva coast,
with a weak ridge of surface high pressure over the Piedmont.
Stratus and fog developed across much of the area overnight, but
conditions should improve from SW-NE as drier conditions arrive
from the WSW as low pressure departs to the NE today. IFR
conditions will likely persist the longest at SBY, until ~16z,
with the other terminals improving by 14z. There is a slight
chc of mainly sea /bay- breeze showers/tstms this aftn. Low
pressure tracks off the NC Outer Banks later tonight into
Tuesday bringing a chc of showers and embedded tstms to SE VA/NE
NC. Mainly dry conditions are then expected to prevail
Wednesday through Friday. Patchy fog or stratus is possible each
morning within a few hours of sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest surface analysis centers weak low pressure just offshore
the Delmarva, with a frontal boundary stretching along the
coast and into northeast North Carolina. Winds are generally
northwest to west at 5-15 knots. Seas average 2-3 feet and waves
1 foot. Low pressure pushes farther offshore today as the North
Carolina front lifts northward. A weakening cold front
approaches from the west. Light flow persists through the
afternoon, becoming onshore and increasing to 10-15 knots this
evening/tonight as the front reaches the coast. Seas build to
2-4 feet (highest northern coastal waters) tonight. Waves 1-2
feet. The front stalls/washes out along the coast Tuesday as
another weakening front approaches from the west. Winds
generally south of the south at 5-10 knots. The front pushes
just offshore late Tuesday night as flow becomes west to
northwest at 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet. Another cold front
approaches from the west Wednesday, crossing the waters
Wednesday night. Weak cold advection behind the front results in
continued sub-SCA conditions. High pressure builds over the
waters for the end of the work week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.