Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080639
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT INTENSIFIES WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG CSTL SFC LO PRES E OF ILM BEGINS TO TRACK ENE AND AWAY FM
THE CST OVRNGT. BACK EDGE OF PCPN (MNLY RA W/ OCNL IP) HAS REACHED
IN FARTHEREST W EXTENT ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND STARTING TO PULL TO
THE E (THOUGH SLOLY). XCPG CONTD PCPN NR ALL THE CST OVRNGT THOUGH
TREND WILL LWR BY LT AT NGT. OTRW...CONTD WINDY ALONG THE COAST.
SOME DCRG CLDNS INLAND...ESP ACRS THE PIEDMONT AFT MDNGT. LO TEMPS
FM THE U20S-L30S TO M-U30S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS RGN WILL SQUEEZE OUT A NEAR NRML FEB DAY MON AHEAD OF WHAT
THE GUID SHOWS AS AN XTNDD PRD WITH BLO NRML TMPS. FA WILL BE BTWN
THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW AND APPRCHG UPL LVL LOW FROM THE NW. 12Z
DATA CONTS TO SLOW THE PCPN WITH THIS FTR...NOT CROSSING THE MTS
UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. XPCT A PT SUNNY DAY WITH ANY SHWRS CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR LATE. HIGHS M40S-L50S.

NXT S/W PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA MON NITE. THE TRACK OF THE FTR WILL
BE CRITICAL AS HISTORY AS PROVEN THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH A RTHR TIGHT PCPN GRDNT TO ITS NORTH.
THIS FTR WILL ALSO HAVE A TRAILING TROF / BNDRY WHICH HAS ME A BIT
CONCERNED. PCPN STARTS OFF AS RAIN SHWRS MON EVENING...BUT GIVEN HOW
POTENT THIS SYSTM IS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR
MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS
WUD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA
HERE WOULD BE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY (ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VA RT 360 LINE). A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE M30S.

FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LTST
SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS SRN
HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS TUE
EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...
ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRTS
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST.

TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT
SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN
NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S.

UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING
HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE
NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT
ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG
UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION.
THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU
WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT
WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40-
45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND
THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT
(HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA
BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING
WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH
SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(40-45 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-12FT
NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION
AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. (MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLANTIC
SIDE...MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MON MORN DURING HIGH
TIDE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUES. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ


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