Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 291804
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
204 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE...AND CUTOFF LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER. DEW POINTS GENERALLY GREATER
THAN 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE GA AS WELL AS THE
SC LOWCOUNTRY. SPC SREF KEEPS FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE CSRA INTO THIS EVENING. POPS SLOWLY INCREASING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER BUT STILL LIFTING UPPER
ENERGY NE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS
SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE WITH IT INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE S/SW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL STILL
TRY TO HANG TOUGH TO THE NORTH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH POPS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS...FAVORING BEST POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FA SUNDAY. MONDAY...W ATL UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR SE BUILDS SOME TOWARDS THE SE COAST AS UPPER ENERGY LIFTS
OUT TO OUR N...WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTING WEST
SOME TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION
FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW INTO THE E
GULF...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL
REGENERATE. FOR OUR REGION...APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LEADING TO EXPECTATIONS OF SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD SOME TOWARDS THE SE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES
WITH REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE
ERIKA...AS IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE E GULF AND DRIFT
NORTH. FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS
AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SOME LOWER
CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY AT THE TAF SITES...BUT TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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