Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 242309
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
609 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record temperatures will continue tonight, with high
pressure centered off the coast bringing warm and moist air
into region. A cold front will cross the area Sunday into
Monday bringing a high chance of showers. Temperatures will
remain above normal next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
The high pressure ridge continues to direct a southwesterly
flow into the region. The upstream low pressure system will
continue to lift northeastward, tightening the pressure gradient
over the Southeast. Expected breezy conditions to persist this
evening, but winds should weaken some overnight. A much stronger
low level jet and high clouds will make fog less likely than
the previous few nights, with stratus more probable. However,
cannot rule out patchy fog over southeast portions of the CSRA
and eastern Midlands where moisture is very high. Any showers
tonight are expected to remain northwest of the area closer to a
shortwave moving through the upstate, and the approaching
front. Record highs were experienced today, and overnight lows
could be near record warmest in places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday: Low pressure over the northern Great Lakes region will move
into Canada on Sunday dragging a cold front from the Tennessee
Valley across the Appalachians and into the forecast area. Moisture
will deepen through the day with increasing chances of rain
during the afternoon. The better chance of rain still appears to
be Sunday evening and into Sunday night. Lowered pops east some
during the afternoon given latest model guidance. Instability
appears quite limited during the afternoon with the most
favorable LI values near 0, but cannot rule out an isolated
thunderstorm. The pressure gradient will tighten on Sunday ahead
of the front with breezy conditions expected. Southwesterly
winds around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are expected.
A lake wind advisory will need to be considered.

Monday: The cold front is expected to be in the eastern portion of
the area Monday morning and will slowly push east and off the
coast Monday night. Weak low pressure tracking northeast along
the boundary from the gulf coast States will focus showers
across the area as isentropic lift is enhanced along with low
level convergence.Moisture will decrease during the late
afternoon from west to east across the area. Models show
shortwave energy moving through the area Monday night although
the more favorable energy appears much further north and drier
air will already be moving into the area. Maintained categorical
pops during the day and slight chance east Monday night.
Temperatures on Monday will be several degrees cooler than
recent days with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 and lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models show generally zonal flow aloft on Tuesday with
surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. This
will promote a dry forecast for Tuesday. An upper disturbance along
the lower Mississippi Valley region will move toward the area on
Wednesday along with a warm front. High pressure will be off
the coast promoting easterly low level winds. Have continued to
indicate likely pops west and chance pops east for Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An upper low and and associated surface low
will move from the Upper Mississippi Valley region on Thursday
towards southern New England by Friday bringing the next cold
front through the forecast area. The front will be off the coast
on Friday with an upper ridge and surface high pressure
building back into the area for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to continue for much of the overnight
hours, with a return to mvfr ceilings/visibilities between
08-11z Sunday.

Scattered mid-level cumulus fields will dissipate after sunset,
leaving mostly clear skies for a portion of the overnight hours.
Model time sections showing a stronger low-level jet developing
after 00z tonight, with strong 25-30 knot winds near 2kft helping
with mixing. Winds more out of the south to southwest overnight
also, with less Atlantic moisture than previous nights. Latest
hrrr model run showing only patchy fog towards morning, with
highest probability moving in from southwest of the CSRA. The
same thinking follows with the lower ceilings moving in towards
morning from the southwest prior to sunrise. Will trend towards
that solution. VFR should return by late Sunday morning.

With a cold front approaching from our west tomorrow, area
should once again see an increase in wind speeds. Southwest
winds will be from 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts after
mid-morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front will move across the
region Sunday night into Monday bringing potential for
associated restrictions in rain. Another frontal system may
bring restrictions on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record heat today, with near record heat possible tonight.
CAE set a new record high for 2/24 of 83, breaking the old
record of 82 set in 2017.
CAE warmest low for 2/25 is 61 last set in 1890.
AGS tied the the record high for 2/24 of 84, last set in 2017.
AGS warmest low for 2/25 is 61 last set in 1918.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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