Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 230247
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL SC COAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
GA WITH DRIER AIR TRAPPED ACROSS WESTERN NC AND EASTERN TN.
SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS TO THE COAST AND WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH A SLOW TREND OF DIMINISHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND WITH
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOODING ISSUES. HAVE
INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL DIG A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHICH CUTS OFF AND REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW HAVE A NW/SE GRADIENT IN
THE POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SE CWA IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.
LOWER POPS TO THE NW IN THE 10-20 PCT RANGE. LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PRECIP IS DRIER AIR ALOFT. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS PARKED TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE. ALOFT THE WESTERLIES LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH AND A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS OVER THE SE US. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE. RESULT IS POPS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
AND MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE KOGB
AREA WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNSET...THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KCUB/KCAE/KAGS/KDNL FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH THE EVENING.

WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS
/STRATO-CU DUE TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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