Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 030340
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1040 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT A STRONG GRADIENT IN
DEWPOINTS EXISTS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE
SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST HRRR AND LAMP POP TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAY
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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