Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 121918
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
218 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and reinforcing cold air will be moving into the
region this afternoon through Wednesday. A dry front will cross
the area Thursday followed by high pressure Friday and
Saturday. Unsettled weather will return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A series of dry cold fronts will move through the forecast area (FA)
through tonight, ushering in cooler and drier air, with a wind shift
to NW. The pressure gradient over our FA will tighten as low
pressure intensifies well to our NE, leading to breezy conditions
this afternoon, and continuing tonight over warmer area lakes. Lake
Wind Advisory in effect from 1pm to 4am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure
building across the area Wednesday will slip south by Wednesday
night. A clipper system crossing the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic
coast Wednesday night into Thursday morning will push a weak and dry
cold front into the region Thursday night. Temperatures at 850 mb
will start out cold Wednesday morning...ranging from minus 8C north
to minus 2C south...with some warming during the day as the thermal
trough moves east. MOS guidance has been fairly consistent with
afternoon highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s on Wednesday...
moderating to the mid 50s to lower 60s Thursday as the upper flow
becomes zonal.

We could see some increase in clouds Thursday night as Gulf moisture
returns northward while low pressure digs into the mid MS Valley.
Models continue to depict the moisture return as a split stream with
much of the Gulf moisture remaining south of the area Thursday night
with the northern stream only reaching the TN Valley and remaining
north of the area. With the split stream and dry air to overcome,
Thursday night still looks dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models indicate an upper level trough swinging through the forecast
area Friday night with much of the moisture associated with the
system maintaining a split flow around the area. Have remained with
slight chance pops for Friday due to low confidence. Any rainfall
will quickly exiting the area Friday night as low pressure near the
coast lift northeast. Surface high pressure along with upper level
ridging moves into the area Saturday.

On Sunday the high pressure will move away from the region as the
next low pressure system develops over the southern Plains region
and ushers Gulf moisture northward. Models differ with timing and
intensity of this system however agree on the chance for rain
returning to the forecast area Sunday afternoon through Monday or
Tuesday. Temperatures through the long term will be below normal
Friday and Saturday with near normal for Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area behind a series
of dry cold fronts. Breezy conditions expected this afternoon into
early tonight. No fog/stratus due to wind and dry air.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$



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