Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301807
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
107 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE ATMOSPHERE IS EVOLVING TOWARD A MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING/EARLY
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE JET. VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE EQUATOR ARE VERY WARM FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA TO NEAR 160E. ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE
AROUND THE GLOBE, AND A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A
KELVIN WAVE IS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC, WHERE HURRICANE ANDRES HAS DEVELOPED. THIS KELVIN WAVE LIKELY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND
SHOULD REACH THE INDIAN OCEAN BY MID JUNE. THE NUMERICAL MODELS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE COHERENT SIGNAL AND ITS
EVOLUTION. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
THE SIGNAL AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH LEVEL
DIVERGENCE NEAR 100W AND THE CONSISTENT PROPAGATION SPEED OF KELVIN
WAVES AROUND THE GLOBE IN RECENT WEEKS. AS SUCH, ENHANCED TROPICAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY IN PHASE TWO OF THE WHEELER-HENDON
PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAM THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE PROBABLY EXTENDING INTO
PHASE THREE THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. ENHANCED TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS
IN PHASE TWO OF THE WHEELER-HENDON PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM ARE CORRELATED
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND A TENDENCY FOR TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE ECMWF MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG WITH TROUGH IN
CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT MAINTENANCE OF RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SEEMS LIKE A MORE REASONABLE
SOLUTION THAN THE TROUGHING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS.

IN THE MORE IMMEDIATE FUTURE, VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN
KANSAS TODAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND
WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THIS
EVENING. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED RAPIDLY THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL REACH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS.
AN EXTENSIVE AREA COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAD
INVADED NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS BY 07Z, BUT CLEARING WAS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE STRATUS SHOULD ERODE FROM NORTHERN KANSAS SOON
AFTER SUNRISE AND LIKELY WILL BE GONE FROM ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN
ON FRIDAY EVEN WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AFTER THE STRATUS ERODES. NORTH
WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS,
AND LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNSET.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND INCREASING FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION OF
LEE TROUGHING. LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
IN CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS
IS LIKELY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE SUNDAY, AND AS MOISTURE
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPROVES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SOME OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME THE
AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH WILL BE JUST EAST OF A 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
CONVECTION GOING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BASED ON TIMING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS 850MB AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. 700MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN 10 TO
NEAR 13C RANGE BY 00Z TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS. LATE DAY
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER, HOWEVER THESE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS THEY APPROACH FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER AREA FAVORABLE FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE
OF THE WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES. NAM AND GFS DIFFERS ON WHERE THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE WARM LAYER WILL BE LOCATED MONDAY NIGHT
SO AT THIS TIME WILL STAY WITH PERSISTENCE AND NOT MENTION
PRECIPITATION JUST YET ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON 850MB
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BOTH DAYS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM +12C AND
NEAR +16C. 850MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. BASED ON THESE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG
WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT FOR HIGHS BOTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM 85 TO NEAR 90. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD
BE NORTH AND EAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON TUESDAY BASED ON THE WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE WEEK ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO CROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE LATER PERIODS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEPS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AS THEY CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KS,
DRYING OUT THE STRATUS LAYER WITH TIME AS SURFACE WARMING INCREASES.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING TO
WELL BELOW 12 KNOTS AND VEERING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GCK TERMINAL BY 15-18 UTC SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  78  57  85 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  49  80  59  86 /   0   0  20  10
EHA  54  83  60  89 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  49  80  60  88 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  45  77  56  82 /   0   0  30  20
P28  49  78  57  81 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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