Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020603
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
103 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2014

...Update to short term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

Today:

Extremely quiet weather is expected today. At the larger scale, a
stagnant upper air pattern is expected with upstream ridging across
the Rockies and northwesterly flow downstream across the Plains. At
the surface, a weak surface pressure pattern will continue with resultant
light and variable winds with somewhat of a weak surface trough developing
by evening across western Kansas. Maximums temperatures still look on
track with values in the 85F-90F range. No precipitation is expected
today across the region with any showers and storms well outside of
the forecast area.

Tonight:

Tranquil weather continues through the overnight with a light southerly
to southwesterly wind. Minimums expected be in the upper 50sF to lower
60sF. Precipitation probabilities will continue aob 10 percent.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Upper level ridging over Nevada will gradually shift eastward to the
southern and central high plains by Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday
and Wednesday, this ridge will gradually flatten as a shortwave trough
rotates northward then eastward around the periphery of the ridge.
Low level moisture is progged to mix out somewhat through Monday
during the afternoons on the high plains, and then gradually
improve by Tuesday and Wednesday as surface troughing and low
level capping increase. This will lead to greater surface based
CAPE and low level convergence. Thunderstorms often develop on the
higher terrain this time of year when western Kansas happens to be
located along the southern edge of the westerlies. The first
opportunity for thunderstorms, albeit isolated, may be late
Tuesday, with better chances on Wednesday. Maximum temperatures
will gradually creep up into the lower to middle 90s by early to
mid next week as the lee troughing increases. Increasing lee
troughing and low level moisture will also lead to warmer
overnight lows.

Another weak upper level trough is progged to approach western
Kansas by late next week; and this could lead to additional
thunderstorm clusters on the high plains. Uncertainty is of course
high, which is to be expected given the small scale systems and
weak associated forcing that we see this time of year. We can only
speculate on the timing and intensity of any thunderstorm
episodes. It is too early to tell whether any of these storms
would be severe; but given the increasing westerlies, we cannot
rule it out. High temperatures late next week will depend on the
extent of any rainfall and convective debris. Aside from that,
this will be a fairly warm regime. However, given the abundant
vegetation from all the summer rains, 100F temperatures are not
likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Some mid to high level clouds,
but no categorical flight reductions to less than VFR. Light and variable
winds through much of the TAF pd, becoming SE/S 5-10 kt by 00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  89  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  88  66  90 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  60  86  65  89 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  62  88  66  90 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  64  92  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
P28  65  91  67  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden






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