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000
FXUS63 KDDC 190854
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
354 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

A MINOR SHORT WAVE WAS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING, AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY 18Z.  THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ENDING PRIOR TO 18Z, EXCEPT
FOR THE AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  THE RAIN WILL CLEAR EVEN THE
AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 BY 00Z THIS EVENING IN THE FAR WEST.
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, AS THE STORMS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD, THEY
HAVE ALSO BEEN WEAKENING.  SO BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL MISS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTH OF I-70,
WHERE OVER 2 INCHES FELL IN SPOTS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS UPPER WAVE
WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT, AND BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT.  AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, TODAY
SHOULD BE SLOW TO WARM UP AND THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE MID 80S NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO PRATT, AND RANGE TO
THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF KANSAS.  ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL
DROP OFF TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.  THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD BOTH DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES UP A TAD, WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES DROPPING ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD
AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED MOISTURE TO THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. ERGO, ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THIS PERIOD BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
UNLESS THEY COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. IF THIS OCCURS, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONS IT SELF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALSO TO MENTION, FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AS RH`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL
BE MONITORED AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED IF NEEDED.
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO
102 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY THEN BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE POLAR JET MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 102
DEGREES. LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

AN UNORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. I THINK THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE EAST OF THE 3 TAFS BY 09Z. EVEN SO, MOST OF THESE STORMS
ARE HIGH BASED AND CIGS WITHIN THE -TSRA WILL ONLY LOWER TO
OVC050. FOR THE MOST PART, WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT AROUND 11
KNOTS, BUT CUT GUST HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 09Z, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP TO 16G25KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  99  73 /  40  20  10  10
GCK  90  66 100  72 /  40  10  10  10
EHA  93  66 101  71 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  92  67 101  73 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  86  67  96  73 /  40  20  10  10
P28  87  68  97  74 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE