Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 110500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through the
remainder of the weekend as short range models indicate a zonal flow
aloft persisting across the Western High Plains during the period.
Regardless of an intensifying upper level jet across the region, a
much drier air mass in the lower/mid levels will preclude any precip
chances through Sunday night. Temperatures will not be quite as cold
tonight as a prevailing low level southerly flow draws warmer air
northward into western Kansas with H85 temperatures climbing by at
least 5C to 8C. Look for lows down into the 20s(F) across central
Kansas where the cold air mass will be slowest to erode, with
lows only down into the 30s(F) across extreme southwest Kansas
where a southwest to westerly downslope component will develop
late this evening. A weak upper level shortwave will push eastward
across the Northern Plains early Sunday morning, helping to usher
a weak cold front through western Kansas by mid day. This will
briefly halt a short-lived warm up to the region as cooler air
spills into the high plains lowering H85 temperatures back down
into the single digits(C). Expect highs only up into the 30s(F)
across central Kansas Sunday afternoon with the 40s(F) and possibly
a few lower 50s(F) further south.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

The dry pattern will continue through the middle part of next week
as medium range models show a zonal flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains during the period. Considering drier air
in the lower/mid levels will remain prevalent across the region,
precip chances will stay absent across western Kansas through at
least Wednesday night. Temperatures will bounce back a bit Monday
as surface high pressure quickly moves eastward across the Central
Plains, returning low level southerlies to western Kansas. This will
draw warmer air northward pushing H85 temperatures above 5C across
central Kansas to near 10C in extreme southwest Kansas. Should see
widespread 50s(F) for highs Monday afternoon. Yet another cold front
is projected to move southward through western Kansas Monday night
allowing colder air to once again filter into the area. With H85
temperatures dropping below 0C across central and much of western
Kansas, look for highs struggling to reach the 30s(F) in central
Kansas to the 40s(F) further southwest. A secondary push of
arctic air Wednesday will further drop temperatures with the
20s(F) more likely for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

KGCK/KDDC should remain VFR through the TAF pd. There was some concern
of MVFR cigs for KHYS in association with low clouds, however, recent
guidance keeps the lower cigs to the east. Otherwise, fropa late morning
with northerly winds increasing 15-25 kt in wake of front. Weakening
winds toward dusk 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  47  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  30  47  23  51 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  38  52  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  52  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  27  38  21  50 /   0   0   0   0
P28  32  48  24  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Sugden


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