Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 042304
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Mid to upper level moisture will be on the increase this evening
into the overnight period leading to increased cloudiness,
especially across western and west central Kansas. A weak
shortwave looks to move through Colorado this evening and trigger
a few thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. Most likely these
storms will stay out of our CWA but have placed a slight chance
across Hamilton county. Partly cloudy skies are anticipated
tomorrow with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the late
afternoon across west central Kansas. Southerly winds are expected
to continue through tomorrow as lee troughing continues to be
positioned across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight are anticipated to range from the mid 60s across west
central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A strong upper level low currently entering the Pacific Northwest
will slide east northeast Saturday night then into central Canada
Sunday through Tuesday. Meanwhile, An upper level high will spin
across the Southern Plains. Weak shortwaves look to swing around
the periphery of the upper level low affecting western Kansas from
time to time. Saturday night into Sunday as lee troughing
continues to bring warm moist air from the south. A weak cold
front is progged to move through the area Sunday night into Monday
in the wake of the first upper level shortwave moving through the
Northern Plains. This will bring an increase in cloudiness and a
slight chance of thunderstorms across central and south central
Kansas. This frontal boundary then stalls out somewhere across
southern portions of the CWA. There will be enough lift across
this boundary to have a few thunderstorms Sunday night into
Monday. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies across south central
Kansas with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. The second shortwave
looks to move through Nebraska Monday afternoon into Monday
evening leading to increased cloud cover across the remainder of
the CWA and spreading thunderstorm chances farther north. This
will also help push the surface cold front farther south into
Oklahoma. Thunderstorm chances continue north of this frontal
boundary Tuesday into Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies expected.
A strong upper level shortwave is then anticipated to move south
through Central Canada Thursday and into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Thursday night into Friday. This will help push another
cold front through the area with continued chances of
thunderstorms. As for temperatures, highs near 100 degrees are
expected Sunday then cooling down into the 80s by Tuesday behind
the aforementioned front. Lows will generally start out in the
upper 60s and lower 70s Saturday night then decrease into the
upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Saturday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the central high
plains through the start of the weekend period. Subtle upper level
waves embedded in this flow will cross western Kansas overnight
and Saturday. 18z NAM BUFR soundings indicated that only mid to
high level moisture will be present ahead of these upper waves so
VFR conditions can be expected overnight and Saturday. Gusty south
winds will decrease into the 10 to 15 knot after 03z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  72 100 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  69  97  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  95  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  68  97  71  99 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  72 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  72  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert


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