Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230628
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1228 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1226 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A dry pattern will persist today and tonight as a northwest flow
aloft prevails across the Western High Plains. Regardless of the
flow aloft being fairly strong, much drier air in the low/mid
levels will keep any precip chances out of the area through
Thursday night. A west-northwest downslope flow for much of the
day will become more southwesterly mid to late afternoon as lee
side troughing develops across eastern Colorado. This will
reinforce an ongoing warming trend with highs pushing the lower
to mid 70s(F) this afternoon. Expect lows only down into the
40s(F) tonight with winds remaining southwesterly and fairly
light.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The long stretch of dry weather for SW KS will continue through
the weekend into next week, through at least next Tuesday.
Confidence is increasing that a strong storm system will impact
the plains about the middle of next week, producing strong winds
and much colder temperatures, but prospects for precipitation
still appear very limited.

Friday...Unseasonably warm. The question is, exactly how warm.
A very warm plume at 850 mb will spread into SW KS through the
morning and midday hours, with 850 mb temperatures exceeding 20C.
Temperatures will skyrocket, well into the 70s, during the first
half of Friday in the well-mixed, downslope prefrontal compression
environment. The next dry cold front and gusty north winds will
spread quickly south from noon to 6 pm Friday, clearing the
Oklahoma border by sunset. As such, temperatures will likely fall
non-diurnally during the afternoon. Southern zones that stay ahead
of the front the longest, that are also favored by downslope, may
easily reach 80 early Friday afternoon before the cold front
arrives.

Saturday...Sunny and "cooler", but still about 10 degrees above
late November normals, in the 60-65 range. Strong upper high over
Sonora Mexico on Saturday will start getting shoved out onto the
plains on Sunday, with a strong rise in 500 mb heights over
Kansas. Another warming trend results, ending up near 70 Sunday
afternoon.

Monday...Unseasonably warm again, with record highs likely. Flow
transitions to SW aloft, in response to a very strong trough
arriving in the Great Basin. 12z ECMWF progs 850 mb temperatures
in the 20-24 C range, with 70s expected. Given strong downslope
components and the dry ground, feel model blend max T grid is too
cool, and some 80s will be realized. With pressure gradients
increasing late Monday, and especially across the southern zones,
may have to contend with higher end fire danger Monday afternoon.

12z ECMWF has trended slower and stronger with the Great Basin
trough, placing it near the Four Corners Tuesday evening. GFS is
more progressive and is a common bias for that model at that time
range. At any rate, a very strong cold front is due by Tuesday
night, with very strong north winds. Deeper ECMWF solution would
argue for light rain/snow across the northern zones early
Wednesday. Pops are not supported by the model blend (yet) so the
forecast will remain dry for now. High winds may be the main
calling card from this system, as ECMWF shows the closed 500 mb
low deepening significantly as it crosses the plains through
Wednesday. At any rate, it appears we will finally have some
weather to talk about the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late Thursday
afternoon. West-northwest winds 5 to 10kt will persist across
western Kansas through early Thursday afternoon as a surface
trough across central Kansas pushes further east into eastern
Kansas. Winds are expected to turn southwesterly 5 to 15kt late
Thursday afternoon as another lee side trough of low pressure
develops across eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  75  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  39  75  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  42  73  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  40  75  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  39  72  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
P28  35  72  43  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...JJohnson



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