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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282127
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
325 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WETTER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS BROUGHT IN
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING BACK OVER NEW
MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BUT STILL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MINOR FLOODING. COOL
FRONT PUSHES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND SHOULD INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE REMAINING...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL
INCREASE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH INVERTED TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
BORDER...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AND BROUGHT UP MOISTURE.
TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S HAVE CLIMBED TO 1.4" TO 1.5" THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EASTERN CWA HAD TO BATTLE LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS FROM LAST NIGHT`S
STORMS BUT SKIES HAVE SCATTERED OUT AND WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
90 DEG...CU/TCU ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE NIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH STILL THINK FAVORED AREA IS
WEST OF DEMING AS WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT PERSISTS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. WITH PW`S OF 150%-160% OF NORMAL...ANY STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...UPPER HIGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MIGRATES
BACK OVER NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL INITIALLY
PROVIDE SOME CAPPING AND INHIBIT SOME CONVECTION...BUT MUCH MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH. IN FACT GFS SHOWS PW`S REMAINING
AROUND 1.3" TO 1.5"...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL DRIER INTRUSIONS INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA. MOUNTAINS SHOULD STILL THRIVE WITH THESE
CONDITIONS AND THE OROGRAPHIC BOOST...SO KEPT THEM IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BACK DOOR COOL FRONT MOVES IN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL REPLENISH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUSING BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION. INCREASED
POPS ALL AREAS INTO SCATTERED CATEGORY...MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER. WITH
PW`S REMAINING AROUND 150% OF NORMAL...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
MAJOR CONCERN.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GFS SHOWING EAST FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER HIGH LIFTS
TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE LIKELY GETS NUDGED WEST WITH
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE EAST ON THE WAIN. ECMWF NOT REALLY
DEFINITIVE ON CLEARING THE EAST...BUT TAILORED THE GRIDS TOWARD THE
GFS NONE THE LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z - 30/00Z...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. P6SM FEW-SCT080-120 SCT-BKN200-250.
THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL
HAVE SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1/2SM +TSRA BKN020-060
AND WINDS G50KTS OR STRONGER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL
ALLOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SILVER FIRE AND OTHER RECENT BURN
SCARS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE
TOMORROW AS THAT UPPER LEVEL HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BUT WILL RAMP UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE LOWLANDS AND AROUND 10 POINTS
HIGHER IN THE MTNS TUESDAY...THEN A LITTLE LOWER WEDNESDAY. HAINES
INDICES VERY LOW (2 OR 3) TUESDAY AND 3 OR 4 (VERY LOW OR LOW)
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  95  78  98  75 /  20  10  20  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA           74  90  75  94  72 /  20  10  20  20  40
LAS CRUCES              71  93  72  97  71 /  20  10  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              72  94  73  98  70 /  10  30  20  20  40
CLOUDCROFT              49  68  51  70  48 /  30  40  20  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  92  71  96  68 /  30  20  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             62  86  63  90  60 /  40  40  30  20  30
DEMING                  71  93  72  97  69 /  30  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               70  92  71  96  68 /  40  40  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  95  77  99  74 /  20  10  20  20  20
DELL CITY               68  94  69  97  66 /  20  10  20  20  50
FORT HANCOCK            74  97  75 100  72 /  20  10  20  20  30
LOMA LINDA              68  87  67  91  65 /  20  10  20  20  30
FABENS                  74  96  75  99  72 /  20  10  20  20  20
SANTA TERESA            72  94  74  98  71 /  20  10  20  20  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          73  92  74  96  71 /  20  10  20  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           67  94  69  98  65 /  20  10  20  20  20
HATCH                   69  93  70  97  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                71  93  72  97  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
OROGRANDE               71  95  72  99  69 /  20  10  20  20  40
MAYHILL                 60  77  61  80  58 /  30  40  20  40  50
MESCALERO               57  79  58  82  55 /  30  40  20  40  50
TIMBERON                56  77  57  80  54 /  30  40  20  30  50
WINSTON                 61  83  62  86  59 /  40  50  30  40  30
HILLSBORO               69  88  68  92  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPACEPORT               70  92  71  96  68 /  20  10  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            56  85  57  88  54 /  40  40  40  40  30
HURLEY                  62  86  61  90  59 /  40  30  30  20  20
CLIFF                   63  88  63  92  60 /  40  40  30  20  20
MULE CREEK              59  89  59  93  56 /  40  40  30  20  20
FAYWOOD                 66  88  65  92  63 /  40  30  20  20  20
ANIMAS                  70  93  73  97  70 /  40  40  20  20  20
HACHITA                 69  93  70  97  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          72  93  73  97  70 /  40  40  20  20  20
CLOVERDALE              64  88  63  92  61 /  40  30  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/PARK







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