Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 240914
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
314 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to bear down on the Borderland keeping
strong heat across the region. Temperatures will continue well
above normal with lowlands back into the 100 degree range this
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon
with most of them over area mountains. Through the upcoming work
week increases in moisture will bring more clouds, slightly cooler
conditions and more storms each afternoon and evening, with better
coverage across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure aloft has currently settled over New Mexico to keep
the heat strong across the region. As such we`ve seen record max
temperatures across the forecast area. Today will be another day
of excessive heat. Temperatures will top out close to 10 degrees
above normal today. However we fell 1 degree short of our needed
105 to verify the Heat Advisory. Today, temps look to right at or
a degree above yesterday. Thus quite HOT and close enough to Heat
Advisory crieteria to extend it 24 hrs to Monday morning.

Our moisture profile remains a lot to be desired as the moisture
over the region is present but quite shallow. Dry continental air
has moved over much of TX ans our current SE/E trajectories are
keeping the bulk of the monsoon moisutre channel to our west over
AZ while importing the drier TX air over the forecast area. The
NAM model stubbornly keeps the dewpoints up through the day and
thus advertises better instability and storm potential...while the
GFS model looks to handle the daily drying mixout and more
accurately keeps the east/south zones stable and dry. This seems
to be the winning scenario. Thus again we will struggle to see
much more than isolated storm development. Storms will favor the
area mountains where upslope flow and heating will compliment each
other and provide added lift/trigger that the lowlands don`t have
the advantage of. Better storm chances for the lowlands will be
west of area mountains due to storm motion being west. A few
storms to the west may produce heavy rain, but the greater threat
will be strong storm outflow winds and dust.

Monday subtle changes should mean a slight drop in temps and an
increase in moisture. The upper ridge looks to bump north toward
the Four Corners region. This allows the thicknesses to drop with
a resultant minor cooling. May still see 100 degree temps however.
Also there appears to be an increase in moisture from both the
Gulf of Mexico across TX on SE flow and from the west on some low-
level westerlies. Aloft the monsoon plume of moisture over AZ
begins to recyle east over the region. The results should be a
trend to increased storm chances and coverage across the forecast
area.

Wednesday and Thursday show, in the models, to be the two days
with the best (deepest and most uniform) moisture over the region.
The upper ridge continues to drift away to the NW and this allows
an easterly wave to approach from the SE as it tracks across S TX.
This feature will help to introduce additional moisture and
instabilty to the region. Best chances for storms these days with
coverate that appears to be at least scattered across the region.
May also see increases in rainfall amounts with some slight risks
for heavy rain and isolated flash flooding.

Friday and onward it appears the upper ridge makes a jog back to
the east with a pattern setting up that should move the better
moisture back west with minor drying east. Thus the POP pattern
will reflect better rain/storm chances west vs. east.

&&

.AVIATION...
Valid 24/12Z-25/12Z.
P6SM SKC-SCT120-150 for much of period with mainly mountain SCT
VRB25G45KT 1-3SM TSRA BKN050-070 which could move onto the
lowlands west of the divide and west of the Sacramento mountains
in the Tularosa basin. Winds will be E to SE east of divide and N
to NW west of divide all AOB 12kts except near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper ridge will be shifting westward into the southern Nevada
region over the upcoming week. As it does, moisture will get
recycled around the high and there will be increasing thunderstorm
chances through the upcoming work week. Temperatures starting
Tuesday look to drop below 100 degrees and remain that way
through the week. With the falling temperatures and increased
moisture, relative humidity values will be on the increase to
above 25 percent areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                105  78 101  76 /  10   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca          100  74  95  72 /  10   0  10   0
Las Cruces             103  73  98  72 /  10  10  10  20
Alamogordo             103  73  98  72 /  20  20  30  20
Cloudcroft              80  52  75  52 /  40  30  50  30
Truth or Consequences  101  74  97  72 /  20  30  30  30
Silver City             97  66  91  66 /  50  40  60  40
Deming                 103  72  98  72 /  20  20  30  30
Lordsburg               98  69  97  70 /  20  30  30  30
West El Paso Metro     104  78  99  76 /  10   0  10  10
Dell City              103  72  97  71 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Hancock           105  76 100  75 /  10   0  10   0
Loma Linda              98  71  92  70 /  10   0  10  10
Fabens                 105  75 100  74 /  10   0  10  10
Santa Teresa           104  75  99  74 /  10   0  10  10
White Sands HQ         102  74  97  74 /  10  10  10  20
Jornada Range          102  70  98  68 /  20  10  10  20
Hatch                  105  73  99  71 /  20  20  20  20
Columbus               102  73  98  74 /  10  10  20  20
Orogrande              102  74  97  73 /  10   0  10  10
Mayhill                 89  58  83  58 /  40  30  30  20
Mescalero               91  58  86  58 /  40  30  50  30
Timberon                86  57  81  56 /  30  30  30  20
Winston                 93  61  89  60 /  50  40  60  40
Hillsboro              101  70  95  67 /  40  40  50  40
Spaceport              101  73  96  70 /  30  20  10  30
Lake Roberts            98  57  93  57 /  60  40  60  50
Hurley                  96  67  93  66 /  50  40  50  40
Cliff                  100  64  96  64 /  50  40  50  40
Mule Creek              96  61  95  61 /  50  40  50  40
Faywood                101  68  95  65 /  50  50  50  40
Animas                  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  30  30
Hachita                100  69  98  70 /  20  20  30  30
Antelope Wells         100  69  96  70 /  30  30  30  30
Cloverdale              92  65  88  66 /  40  30  50  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

&&

$$

14-Bird


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