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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010954
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
354 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM  TODAY AND SUNDAY
BEFORE FALLING BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TOMORROW
BEFORE WIDELY DIVERGING FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY THIS
MORNING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WAS ADVANCING SLOWLY INTO THE WEST
COAST WITH PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO ONLY PUSH INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT
LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID WEST COMBINED WITH BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE DIVIDE TO INDUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH SOME ADVECTION OF MOISTURE. CONSEQUENTLY DEWPOINTS WILL BE
AROUND 45 TO 50 BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGES
FROM AROUND .6 TO .9. AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH
THIS AFTERNOON`S CAPES AROUND 300 TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
EXPECT WEAK UPPER WAVES TO EJECT AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH THROUGH THE
CWA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH AXIS ADVANCES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA WHILE ANOTHER POSSIBLE
SHORT WAVE EJECTS TO NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ALLOWING AIR MASS TO HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH LOWLAND
CAPES ONLY AROUND 400 TO 800 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
50 TO 60 KT WINDS AT 6 KM AGL WILL PROVIDE STRONG SHEAR FOR
UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT WHILE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL WILL BE LOW
AT AROUND 8000 FEET AGL. THUS THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE
LACK OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THUS ACTUAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE MARGINAL AT BEST ON SUNDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW MAJOR DISAGREEMENTS BEGINNING ON
MONDAY. GFS...GFS ENSEMBLES...AND NAM INDICATE COLD FRONT AND
THEN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MOST RAINFALL
ENDING BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DOES DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER NEXT WEEK BUT THIS FEATURE MAY BE TOO DISTANT TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS PER ENSEMBLE RAIN FORECASTS.
IN CONTRAST ECMWF STILL DEVELOPS DEEP CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE
BORDER WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER A COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF KEEPS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE
CWA INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES WILL CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALIDE 01/12Z-02/12Z.
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM 20Z TO 03Z. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 7000 AND
12,000 FEET AGL. WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND TO 10 20 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY. LOWEST HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  58  80  56  72 /  10  20  30  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           75  51  79  55  69 /   0  10  30  30  30
LAS CRUCES              76  55  79  50  71 /  10  10  30  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              75  54  76  53  70 /  10  10  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              58  38  59  37  52 /  10  10  40  50  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  52  77  53  67 /  10  10  40  30  20
SILVER CITY             70  49  74  46  68 /  10   0  40  30  30
DEMING                  76  50  79  49  71 /  10  10  40  30  20
LORDSBURG               75  49  77  47  70 /   0   0  40  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      77  58  81  54  71 /  10  20  30  30  30
DELL CITY               73  53  79  50  71 /   0  10  30  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            79  57  81  54  74 /   0  20  30  30  30
LOMA LINDA              73  55  79  57  71 /  10  20  30  30  30
FABENS                  78  56  80  49  72 /  10  20  30  30  30
SANTA TERESA            77  55  80  53  71 /  10  20  30  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          76  57  80  54  70 /  10  20  30  30  30
JORNADA RANGE           75  45  80  44  70 /  10  10  30  30  30
HATCH                   76  50  80  47  70 /  10  10  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                77  52  79  52  71 /  10  10  40  30  20
OROGRANDE               76  57  80  54  70 /  10  20  30  30  30
MAYHILL                 63  43  65  42  59 /  10  10  40  40  30
MESCALERO               61  39  67  41  58 /  20  10  40  40  30
TIMBERON                62  42  69  38  58 /  10  10  40  40  30
WINSTON                 68  44  70  41  61 /  20  10  40  40  30
HILLSBORO               73  53  78  51  70 /  10  10  40  30  20
SPACEPORT               74  49  79  46  69 /  10  10  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            71  43  75  42  65 /  10  10  40  40  30
HURLEY                  71  48  75  48  70 /   0   0  40  30  20
CLIFF                   73  39  76  43  68 /   0   0  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              72  38  72  41  66 /   0   0  50  40  20
FAYWOOD                 75  51  79  51  71 /  10  10  40  30  20
ANIMAS                  76  49  76  46  68 /   0   0  40  30  20
HACHITA                 78  51  79  49  70 /   0   0  40  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          75  48  78  50  71 /   0   0  40  30  20
CLOVERDALE              73  52  75  44  70 /   0   0  50  40  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




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