Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262126
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
226 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION AROUND THE NEW
YEAR. RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS KEPT LIGHT PRECIP GOING ACROSS
SERN CWA SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATING A STRONG
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE SETTING UP
THROUGH SE HUDSPETH COUNTY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK
SIMILAR TO WHAT KELP SOUNDING INDICATED THIS MORNING AND MANY
AREAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. WITH THIS IN MIND AND AGREEMENT OF 0.1
TO 0.2 INCHES QPF WHICH COULD AMOUNT TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 5000 FT. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR ZONES 420-422.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM N TO S AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE N AND BRING IN SOME VERY LOW DEW POINTS. SILVER CITY AND
KTCS BOTH HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...SO EXPECT THIS DRY AIR TO MOVE THROUGH MOST NM COUNTIES AND
START EDGING INTO EL PASO COUNTY BY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO COLD TEMPS
TONIGHT...SO GENERALLY HAVE TEENS FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS OF NM
AND INTO THE 20S FOR TX. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DROP MOUNTAINS INTO
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

SOME SNOW COULD LINGER OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM N TO S. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING UNDER 50 DEGREES...MAY
STAY IN 30S FOR PARTS OF SE HUDSPETH WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER MOST
OF THE DAY. A COLD NIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS SAT NIGHT WITH TEENS
COMMON WITH JUST SOME 20S OVER THE SE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR LOWLAND HIGHS AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM COMES NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY.
MODELS COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF UPPER
LOW...BUT THE GFS IS QUICKER PUSHING IT OUT OF REGION AND ALSO
COLDER WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING CWA TUE. THE EXTENT
OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE CRITICAL TO PRECIP TYPE FORECAST. AT THIS
TIME...BOTH EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE VERY LIGHT PRECIP MAKING IT
INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA...WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN. PRECIP OUT WEST LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY THU.
MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT...BUT LOWLANDS
WILL BE TRICKY. FOR NOW HAVE A RN/SN MIX MENTIONED THROUGH THE DAY
THU...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW THU NIGHT AS H70 TEMPS DROP
BELOW -6C TO -8C AND H85 TEMPS ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. MOST PRECIP
COULD BE OVER BY FRI MORNING WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LIMITED SNOWFALL
FOR THE LOWLANDS...BUT WITH THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MODELS
BIG CHANGES COULD STILL OCCUR. ENSEMBLES HAVE LARGE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH GREATER THAN 20 DEGREE SPREADS FOR WED
AND 15 DEGREES THU AT KELP.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/00Z- 28/00Z...
ISOLATED -RASN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF A
LRU-ALM LINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO
THE 5-6KFT RANGE...BUT ELP WILL STRUGGLE TO SCATTER OUT BEFORE
SUNSET. SECONDARY VORTMAX WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF PRECIP TO REDEVELOP OVER HUDSPETH
AND FAR SE EL PASO COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THIS BAND WILL KEEP ELP IN BKN-OVC
CONDITIONS BUT WITH VFR CIGS.  OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERALL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BAND OF PRECIP TO RE-DEVELOP OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY TX
OVERNIGHT... WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THAT
AREA BY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VERY DRY AIR IS PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO. BUT WITH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE
TOMORROW...MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
IMPROVE TO NEAR-NORMAL BY MONDAY. BUT A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER SHARP
DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING THE RISK OF RAIN AND SNOW BACK TO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 29  48  24  49  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           31  38  24  49  28 /  60  30  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              24  46  20  49  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              22  45  16  48  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              10  29  15  41  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   20  41  18  48  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             16  40  15  44  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  17  46  12  49  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               20  45  19  48  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      27  48  23  49  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               29  43  18  49  25 /  50  30   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            31  49  20  51  26 /  60  30   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              27  43  19  45  30 /  20   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  30  49  20  51  27 /  40   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            24  47  18  49  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          25  46  21  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           15  46  12  48  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   22  47  18  50  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                23  46  20  50  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               26  44  20  47  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 17  35  13  45  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               13  33  12  41  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                16  36  12  43  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 15  37  14  44  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               16  42  19  47  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               17  44  17  48  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            14  34  18  42  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  18  42  16  46  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   14  43  14  46  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK               9  42  13  45  17 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 19  42  18  45  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  20  47  19  52  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 18  47  16  51  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          20  45  16  53  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              17  43  15  50  26 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY FOR TXZ420>422.

&&

$$

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