Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 222049
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION RECEIVED A WIDE RANGE OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM
THIS LATEST STORM SYSTEM...RANGING FROM ONLY ONE-TENTH TO OVER ONE
INCH OF RAIN. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST WHICH WILL MAKE FOR DRIER DAYS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR THE EVENING HOURS TODAY THE AREAS WEST OF THE
RIO GRAND WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS WEEKEND LESS
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSLATE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND LESSER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS OVER FEWER
AREAS. FOR NEXT WORK WEEK WE SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH MONSOON
MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE BORDERLAND TO GET DAILY ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONCENTRATED MONSOONAL-FLOW MOISTURE PLUME IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED
OVER OUR EASTERN CWFA. TO THE WEST OVER SW NM DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
WORKING IN FROM THE EAST AS A WEST COAST TROUGH ENTERS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. WITH MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST ZONES
THIS REGION IS BECOMING UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE A
REGION OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HELPING WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES WE LOOK TO BEGIN TO BREAK THE CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE A BIT IN
THE EVENING HOURS. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT WE CAN GET THE
STORMS INITIATED WITH THE COOL TEMPS OF THE DAY...BUT THE UPPER
TROUGH COULD HELP WITH A LITTLE HEATING. THUS FOR THE EAST WE KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MENTION ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DOWN DAY IN THE RAIN/STORM DEPARTMENT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWFA. WITH
THIS FEATURE PASSING WINDS ALOFT WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND IMPORT
DRIER AIR AS IT ALSO PUSHES OUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH. THE SE CWFA ZONES WILL HOLD ON TO THE BEST MOISTURE
WHILE THE REST OF THE CWFA HAS ONLY MINOR RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN FAR SE AREAS.
FOR SUNDAY THERE IS NOT A GREAT AMOUNT OF CHANGE BUT WE LOOK TO
BEGIN TO PICK UP THE DEEPER SOUTHERLIES AGAIN BETWEEN THE GULF
HIGH TO OUR EAST AND A BROAD WESTERN U.S. TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THUS
MAYBE WE BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT RAIN/STORM INCREASE. THE BETTER
AREAS LOOK TO BE SW NM.

FOR THE WEEK AHEAD IT LOOKS LIKE WE SIT IN A PATTERN THAT KEEPS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE CWFA TO KEEP A MENTION OF ISOL/SCAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE PM HOURS...AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IN
THE AM HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS OUR MORE TYPICAL SUMMER STORM PATTERN.
WE`LL BE WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVAL LATE
WEDNESDAY THAT MAY ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE MODELS ARE SENDING MIXED MESSAGES FOR MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING A BIT MORE TOWARD A MOIST VS. DRY SCENARIO.
HOWEVER CURRENT PROGS SHOW RIDGING ALOFT TO OUR NW WHICH WOULD
LIKELY PUT A DRIER N/NW FLOW OVER US AND KEEP MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND LESSEN THE STORM COVERAGE. A SECOND FEATURE TO KEEP OUR
EYE ON IS THE POSSIBLE ADDITION OF MORE MOISTURE TO OUR REGION OFF
A HURRICANE OFF THE BAJA LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR VERY PROBABLE.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z - 24/00Z...
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
NEAR ELP TO ALM. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND DECAY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  INCREASING INSTABILITY IN SW NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE
TCS-LRU-ELP CORRIDOR...WHERE DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN DELAYED
SIGNIFICANTLY BY MORNING CLOUDS/RAIN.  BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE ISOLATED AGAIN TOMORROW...
FOCUSED MORE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS PARTS OF SW NEW MEXICO.

25-HARDIMAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHRINK OVER CENTRAL NM AND
FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MOSTLY FOCUSED OVER FAR
SW NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY TX...AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE MORNING RAIN AND CLOUDS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SCOOPS UP SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DEPENDING ON HOW THE INTERACTION
WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GOES...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

25-HARDIMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  91  69  93  71 /  40   0   0  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           65  89  68  90  67 /  50  20  10  10  10
LAS CRUCES              64  89  67  92  67 /  30   0   0  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              63  92  66  88  66 /  50   0   0  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              46  70  48  72  48 /  60  10   0  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  85  66  90  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
SILVER CITY             55  83  58  84  61 /  20   0   0  10  20
DEMING                  63  88  66  92  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
LORDSBURG               63  87  65  91  65 /  20   0   0  10  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  90  70  93  71 /  40   0   0  10  10
DELL CITY               68  91  68  94  67 /  50  20  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            66  94  70  95  71 /  50  20  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              63  86  67  88  69 /  50  10   0  10  20
FABENS                  64  93  68  93  69 /  40  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            66  90  68  92  68 /  40   0   0  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  89  68  92  68 /  40   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           64  88  67  92  67 /  30   0   0  10  10
HATCH                   63  89  66  92  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
COLUMBUS                65  89  68  93  68 /  20   0   0  10  10
OROGRANDE               65  87  68  89  68 /  40   0   0  10  10
MAYHILL                 51  82  54  81  55 /  60  10   0  30  20
MESCALERO               51  81  54  80  55 /  50  10   0  30  20
TIMBERON                52  78  55  79  56 /  50  10   0  30  20
WINSTON                 49  83  53  84  55 /  20   0   0  20  20
HILLSBORO               58  86  62  89  64 /  20   0   0  20  20
SPACEPORT               63  86  66  89  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            51  82  58  85  60 /  20   0   0  20  20
HURLEY                  57  84  61  85  63 /  20   0   0  10  20
CLIFF                   50  84  53  86  55 /  20   0   0  10  10
MULE CREEK              46  81  51  84  52 /  20   0   0  10  20
FAYWOOD                 57  86  61  91  63 /  20   0   0  10  20
ANIMAS                  64  87  65  90  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
HACHITA                 62  88  65  91  65 /  20   0   0  10  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          60  87  63  90  63 /  20  10   0  10  10
CLOVERDALE              59  84  63  85  65 /  20  10   0  10  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/25




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