Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 021022
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
422 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE OUR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS WILL BE NEAR 100
DEGREES EACH DAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WE MAY SEE SOME
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS RETURN TO THE REGION WHICH WILL KNOCK A FEW
DEGREES OFF OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DEW POINTS OUT
WEST HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS WHILE EAST OF THE RIVER WE STILL
HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 30`S AND 40`S. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP
PUSH THE REST OF THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER TODAY. AS
THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT IT WILL TAKE WITH IT OUR CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THAT WILL HELP OUR
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT I HAVE PUT MY FIRST FORECASTED TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGH IN THE FORECAST FOR EL PASO TODAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE VERY NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE AN INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. BY FRIDAY WE WILL HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND TO OUR WEST WILL BE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BEGIN TO
TAP SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA AND ONLY JUST TOUCHING WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WHICH HELPS PULL THE MOISTURE PLUME A LITTLE BETTER
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER
WEST SO IT HAS MORE OF A FOCUS FOR THE RAIN OVER ARIZONA. THE
EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN AREA MOUNTAINS
STARTING ON FRIDAY AND THEN WE WILL SEE THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
TRICKLE INTO PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS FOR THE WEEKEND. FORECASTING
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...IF
THE MOISTURE TAP IS IN ARIZONA WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT IF MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE
FURTHER TO THE EAST WE MIGHT SEE OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. FOR NOW I`VE GOT THE HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z-03/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE
GENERALLY UNLIMITED AND BY THE AFTERNOON OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE WEST AT 26012G20KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A
RETURN TO SINGLE DIGIT MIN RH`S TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS
SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS BOTH AFTERNOONS. FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND AN
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL HELP PULL IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO ARIZONA...BUT THE CURRENT RUNS BRINGS THE MOISTURE
STREAM A LITTLE FURTHER EAST INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN AREA
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND WE MAY SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES
SLIP DOWN INTO THE LOWLANDS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WE WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MIN RH`S. THE SINGLE
DIGIT MIN RH`S WILL BE REPLACED WITH MIN RH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20`S IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                100  70  98  69  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           97  65  95  65  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              98  62  94  62  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              97  63  95  63  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              75  53  74  53  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   97  62  94  62  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             87  55  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  98  58  95  59  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               97  58  94  59  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO     100  70  97  70  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY              100  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK           101  68  99  68  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              94  66  91  66  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                 100  67  98  67  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            99  65  96  66  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          97  66  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           97  59  94  60  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   98  60  96  61  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                98  64  94  64  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               98  67  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 83  58  82  59  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               84  55  83  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                83  56  82  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 87  53  86  54  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               95  57  93  59  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               98  59  95  58  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            87  51  85  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  91  54  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   94  54  92  55  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              92  46  90  47  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 92  57  89  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  97  60  94  59  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 98  57  95  58  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          97  58  94  58  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              93  56  90  58  89 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




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