Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 072001
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS WHILE AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE BORDERLAND
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALLS
AND CAUSE FLOODING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
WARM AND DRIER WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS PUSHING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON CAPES WERE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. UPPER AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES
ALSO INDICATE A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS INTRUDING ACROSS THE CWA
WHILE A SHORT WAVE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE EAST. THESE
FACTORS ARE INDUCING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE
AIR MASS WITH FORCING FROM UPPER WAVE AND OUTFLOWS INITIATING
FURTHER UPDRAFTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND DEEP UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA WHILE DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. RESULTANT CIRCULATION WILL
INCLUDE A DEEP SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
DEWPOINTS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY REMAIN IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS ELEVATED AROUND 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. IN
ADDITION TO UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR HIGH TERRAIN LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL
INCLUDE POSSIBLE WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST PLUS WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD VIA A SURFACE TROUGH. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST SO
RESULTANT WIND SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL.

AFTER FRIDAY UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WHILE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS REFORMS FURTHER WEST. EXPANSION OF RIDGE
INDICATES SUBSIDENCE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIDGE WILL ALSO TEND
TO SHUNT DEEPER MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES FURTHER WEST.
THUS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 08/00Z-09/00Z.
BACKDOOR FRONT BOUNDARY ELP-TCS LINE NEARLY STATIONARY AND ERODING SLOWLY
AND MOVING TO EAST SLOWLY BY THE END OF THE FCST PD. SKY WX: SCT-
BKN050-070 SCT-BKN 100-140 AND SCT-BKN 200-250. LCL MVFR IFR IN HVR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS VRB WINDS 30G40KT 3SM +TSRAGS BKN040CB OVC080. SFC
WINDS 00Z-18Z E OF ELP-TCS LINE SE 7-12 KTS AND WSW WEST OF THE
LINE. WINDS BECOMG MOST LOCATIONS AFT 18Z SW 7-12 KTS.

$$

.FIRE WEATHER... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
THUS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL
FLOODING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT DURING
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PUSHES THE
MOISTURE OFF TO THE WEST. AFTER TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL LATER THIS WEEK THEY WILL RECOVER DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  95  74  91 /  50  30  50  50
SIERRA BLANCA           67  90  68  88 /  40  40  50  50
LAS CRUCES              69  93  69  90 /  50  30  50  50
ALAMOGORDO              67  91  68  89 /  50  30  50  50
CLOUDCROFT              53  70  54  68 /  70  60  60  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  92  67  87 /  50  40  40  40
SILVER CITY             62  83  61  80 /  40  30  30  50
DEMING                  68  93  68  89 /  40  30  30  40
LORDSBURG               67  94  67  88 /  30  30  30  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      73  95  74  92 /  50  30  50  50
DELL CITY               67  92  68  91 /  50  40  50  40
FORT HANCOCK            71  94  71  92 /  40  40  60  40
LOMA LINDA              68  89  68  86 /  50  40  60  50
FABENS                  71  95  71  92 /  50  30  60  50
SANTA TERESA            71  94  72  90 /  50  30  50  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  92  70  90 /  50  50  50  50
JORNADA RANGE           67  92  67  89 /  50  40  50  50
HATCH                   67  93  67  90 /  50  30  40  40
COLUMBUS                70  93  70  89 /  40  30  40  40
OROGRANDE               70  92  71  89 /  50  30  50  50
MAYHILL                 56  78  57  76 /  60  60  60  60
MESCALERO               56  80  56  78 /  60  50  50  60
TIMBERON                56  78  57  77 /  60  50  60  60
WINSTON                 59  84  60  80 /  50  40  30  50
HILLSBORO               63  90  64  87 /  50  40  40  50
SPACEPORT               66  92  67  89 /  50  40  50  50
LAKE ROBERTS            57  83  58  79 /  40  40  30  50
HURLEY                  63  87  63  82 /  30  30  30  40
CLIFF                   63  91  63  86 /  30  30  30  40
MULE CREEK              62  90  63  85 /  30  30  30  30
FAYWOOD                 64  88  64  84 /  40  30  40  40
ANIMAS                  67  94  67  88 /  20  30  30  40
HACHITA                 67  95  67  90 /  30  30  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  93  65  87 /  30  30  40  50
CLOVERDALE              65  89  64  83 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN


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