Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 292133
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
333 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see more sun and warmer temperatures on Sunday and even
warmer temperatures on Monday. We will be dry and have near normal
temperatures through midweek and then cooler air will move back
into the region to cool us a little below normal for Thursday, By
Friday and beyond we will return to slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level trough that brought a potpourri of weather to the
area that included rain, hail, snow and colder temps; is moving
off to our east and drier air is moving in. Currently the upper
level low was over the eastern plains of New Mexico and moving
east. Wrap around moisture on the back side of the system was
bringing some mountain snow and lowland rain and thunderstorms.
With the cooler air in place these thunderstorms are producing
some small hail. All of this is a bit unusual for this time of
year since April is our driest month of the year. We may see a few
lingering showers this evening and maybe an inch or so of snow in
the Sacramento Mountains, but over all I think the dry air will
win out and keep our precipitation to a minimum.

For Sunday through Tuesday we will see a dry northwest flow set up
across the area. Temperature on Sunday will be 10 degrees warmer
(still below average) and on Monday we will see another 10
degrees of warming to put us back near normal for this time of
year. On Wednesday a trough will move across Colorado and that
will help push a back door cold front across the area late on
Wednesday night. The cold front will be mostly dry and help drop
Thursday`s highs a few degrees below normal. But the "cooler"
weather won`t last long as an upper level ridge will quickly build
into the southwest U.S. for the end of the week which will help
jump our high temperatures back above normal. Looking beyond the
forecast both the GFS and ECMWF cutoff an upper level low just
south of California by next Sunday while at the same time both
models have a ridge over the Midwest and another upper level
trough over the Southeast U.S. An omega block pattern may try and
set up which would slow the progress of the west coast upper
level trough to the east for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 30/00Z-01/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT070-090 SCT-BKN120-150 through 12Z then skies becoming
SKC.  Expect some isold to wdly sct -SHRA or -TSRA through 06Z as
upper low moves out of the region.  N to NW winds of 10-20G30KTS
will decrease and become variable under 10KTS east of river while
remaining around 5-10KTS west of river out of the NW. By 18Z expect
all areas to become W to NW at 10-20KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After a cool weekend, temperatures will quickly rebound next week
with relative humidities falling back into the single digits to
lower teens. Winds will continue to be breezy for much of the next 5
days but should remain just below critical speeds.  There will be a
cool front moving through Wednesday night which will shift winds
around to the east and cool temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees. Vent
rates will continue to be in the very good to excellent categories
as deep northwest flow continues over region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 43  75  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           38  71  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              38  71  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              37  68  45  79 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              24  45  33  58 /  30   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   36  71  44  80 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City             33  66  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  36  73  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               38  74  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      43  74  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               37  74  45  85 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            41  76  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              38  66  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  42  76  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            39  74  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          40  70  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           34  71  42  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   36  74  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                40  77  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               39  70  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 26  55  36  68 /  30   0   0   0
Mescalero               26  54  35  66 /  30   0   0   0
Timberon                26  53  37  66 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                 25  62  35  74 /  20   0   0   0
Hillsboro               33  69  43  79 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport               32  71  41  82 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            29  65  33  74 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                  33  68  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   35  72  38  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              36  70  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 34  68  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  38  76  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 36  75  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          38  78  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              37  73  44  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ111.

TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz


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