Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260901
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
401 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The timing of precipitation continues to be the main headache for
the period.

The main upper low continues to spin near the Montana/North Dakota
border, with one lead shortwave currently moving through the CWA
and setting off storms in our eastern counties. That shortwave
will quickly move off to the northeast this morning, and with the
main surface low over southern Canada, think that it will be a bit
quieter today with only a few showers near the international
border. Clouds and precip will keep highs in the north near 70
while the southern counties will see readings again near 80. By
this evening however, the main upper low will be coming east, and
models have some precip developing in central ND and moving into
our western counties. Bumped up POPs in that area for the evening
but think that after midnight the better precip chances will be
further south over ABR/MPX`s areas with the low level jet. With
clouds lows should stay in the 50s.

Friday, the main upper low will still be wobbling over the
Northern Plains with an inverted surface trough over the eastern
CWA. Models bring a decent vort up into our eastern counties so
have some fairly high POPs going during the day, although exact
timing is a bit uncertain still. Highs Friday should stay in the
upper 60s to mid 70s with precip at times across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Friday night through Saturday night...The models start to diverge
on the exact timing of weak shortwaves coming through the
southwesterly flow aloft, which is to be expected with these type
of features. For now just broadbrushed some high chance POPs.
Clouds and precip will keep lows in the 50s and highs in the low
to mid 70s for Saturday.

Sunday through Wednesday...Split flow remains over North America
with northern stream over Canada and southern stream over the
States. Long wave pattern transitions from a relatively high
amplitude to a zonal flow by the end of the period.

The ECMWF was a faster solution than the GFS. The two models were out
of phase after Sun. The GFS was trending slower while the GFS was
oscillating around. Will prefer the ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

It is looking like areas along and north of Highway 2 will be
prone to IFR to MVFR cigs into 18z Thursday as low level moisture
wraps back around the sfc low to our north. The southern edge
could be ragged and thus could see variable sky cover at
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI into Thursday 18z but for the most part expect
IFR/low end MVFR. some clearing or lifting of the cloud ceilings
should occur at TAF sites after 18z Thu. Fargo may well stay VFR
thru 06z Fri as low level moisture stays to its north. Winds will
become or turn westerly and remain that way into Thursday mostly 5
to 15 kts.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Hoppes
AVIATION...Riddle



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