Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 172341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A SURFACE FRONT IS WAVERING AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS NEAREST THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE BOUNDARY
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE TWO PERIODS TO FOCUS ON...TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE FIRST IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PERIODS. WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. BY MORNING THE CONCERN WILL BECOME FOG. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS MAY
DROP TO 1/2 MILE.

THE SECOND AND MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ENHANCED CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD AS IT NEARS AS
THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CHANGE SOME. THIS WILL BE
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CAUSING WINDS TO BE EASTERLY AND COOL ACROSS KANSAS. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST KS...WILL SINK SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...AND LOWERING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IFR
LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FORCING/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
LIMITED. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD MIX OUT TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  88  68  89 /  20  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      66  87  67  89 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          65  85  66  87 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  67  88 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  87  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         65  87  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          66  85  67  90 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  85  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  84  66  86 /  40  30  10  10
CHANUTE         66  81  65  86 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            65  79  65  85 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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