Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271113
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH AS WELL.
LOTS OF POST FRONTAL COLD AIR STRATO-CU ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.  WITH THE NE-E
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

THINK THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE COOL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AREA QUICKLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS
RIDGE MOVES EAST...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS TONIGHT. THINK THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
DROPPING EARLY BUT LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY RISING BY SAT MORNING.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS THIS
WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. GFS IS DRIER
IN THE LOW LAYERS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A SPRINKLE CHANCE OR
POSSIBLY JUST VIRGA. BUT NAM/WRF LOOKS MOIST ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN CHANCE EARLY SAT MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. SO WILL ADD A LOW POP TO SE KS.

SAT-SUN: EXPECT A COUPLE OF NICE SEASONAL TEMP DAYS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS NW FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SRN
KS...CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S.

AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE KS. MID LEVEL SATURATION
AGAIN LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE FLINT HILL FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE.

NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY OUT...AS THIS ZONAL FLOW LEADS
TO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE PLAINS AS WELL.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON WED...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CIGS VARYING PRIMARILY FROM 1,000 TO 1,500FT WILL COVER ALL AREAS
TIL ~15Z WHEN BREAKAGE OF THESE DECKS COMMENCES. BY 18Z ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE IN VFR CIG STATUS WITH SCT-BKN 3,500FT DECKS PREVALENT.
N/NE WINDS 13-17KTS/15-20MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS MORNING
PROGRESSES WITH MOST AREAS LGT AND VARIABLE ~18Z. SW WINDS <13KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KRSL & KHUT MID-LATE AFTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  39  71  47 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      54  38  71  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        52  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  39  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         58  38  73  47 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      59  39  74  47 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          54  37  68  46 /  10  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       54  37  69  46 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  37  66  43 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         50  36  62  43 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            49  36  60  42 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  36  65  43 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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