Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221038
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
438 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Zonal progressive flow will lead to another well above normal
temp day today, as W-SW flow leads to good downslope conditions.
This will lead to max temps almost 20-25 degrees above normal with
very dry conditions expected. (see fire weather section below)
Could even see some temps come close to record numbers for
portions of Central KS this afternoon.

A shortwave moving across the northern plains later today will
help push a cold front into portions of North Central KS by this
evening. This will lead to slightly cooler temps for Thu for
portions of Central KS, with temps south of the stalled frontal
boundary remaining well above normal.

Models continue to show a shortwave is expected to come out of
the Rockies for Thu, with a low pressure area developing over KS
for Thu afternoon. Models continue to trend a little further north
on the path of this low pressure area, With current trend taking
across the northern half of KS. Models show the stalled frontal
boundary in Central KS pushing gradually back into Neb as a warm
front on Thu. Both solutions suggest that most of the precip with
this system will remain along the KS/Neb border or north of the
area.

As the shortwave pushes east on Fri, colder air on the backside
of this system, is expected to plunge south across most of the
forecast area for Fri/Sat, with more seasonal type temps values in
the middle 40s for highs and middle 20s for lows.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Latest medium range model solutions suggest ridging will build
across the region for the weekend. This will lead to a gradual
warming trend by the end of the weekend.

Zonal flow for the beginning of the week will lead to the warming
trend continuing for Mon/Tue. Consensus forecast suggests that
the warm advection associated with the warming trend may lead to a
chance of showers and isolated storms across southern KS for late
Sun through Mon.

Another shortwave is progged to move into the Rockies toward the
end of the forecast period. This system may bring increasing
chances for precipitation and another surge of cooler air as we
head towards the middle of the week.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 438 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Quiet VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. The biggest
concern will be breezy southwest winds, turning northwesterly
across central Kansas around lunchtime as a wind shift stalls
across the area. Winds will gradually turn more easterly tonight
as low pressure strengths to the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Good downslope flow from the West and Northwest will lead to very
dry conditions and well above normal temps Today. Relative
humidity levels may fall into the upper teens both days across
Central KS, which will lead to an elevated fire danger, with high
grassland fire danger values expected.

A cold frontal boundary will drop south across the area on Fri,
which will lead to drier air and NW winds across the region. this
will lead to a very high grassland danger for Fri.

Ketcham

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Wed 2/22/17 Record Highs:

Wichita: 87 In 1996
Russell: 77 In 1982
Salina:  76 In 1982
Chanute: 80 In 1996

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77  48  74  37 /   0  10  10   0
Hutchinson      78  46  72  34 /   0  10  10   0
Newton          77  47  70  36 /   0  10  10   0
ElDorado        78  48  74  38 /   0   0  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   78  48  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         76  41  70  30 /   0   0  10  20
Great Bend      77  42  71  30 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          78  44  70  35 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       78  45  71  34 /   0  10  10  10
Coffeyville     79  49  78  44 /   0   0  10  10
Chanute         78  48  76  41 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            78  48  75  41 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    78  49  77  43 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham
CLIMATE...Ketcham



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