Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291147
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Forecast highlights focus around periods of rain and storms early
this morning through tonight, with possibly a rain/snow mix
across central Kansas late tonight into Sunday. Thinking has
changed little from previous forecaster.

A powerful storm system will affect Mid-America through Sunday
evening, with all facets of weather expected ranging from heavy
snow across eastern Colorado, and western portions of
Kansas/Nebraska, to strong/severe storms and very heavy
rainfall/flash flooding further east/southeast across Oklahoma,
southeast Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas.

First round of rain/storms will continue to advance northeast
across the Kansas region from the predawn hours through this
morning, within zone of strong/deep isentropic ascent and moisture
transport underneath favorable entrance region upper jet
dynamics. The main concern will be heavy rainfall and possible
flooding issues, mainly for low-lying and flood-prone areas.
Thinking the greatest threat for heavy convective rainfall
rates/flash flooding and strong to severe storms with large hail
will be over far southern/southeast Kansas where best elevated
instability and moisture transport will reside.

Another couple rounds of showers/thunderstorms (with areas of
drizzle in between) are expected this afternoon, evening and
overnight across the Kansas region, as the main upper system
becomes negatively tilted and begins to approach from the
southwest. Once again, thinking the greatest threat for heavy
convective rains and associated flash flooding will be over far
southeast Kansas, along with the potential for strong/severe
storms with large hail.

Precipitation will continue Sunday across mainly the western and
northern halves of Kansas and much of Nebraska, as the mid-level
dry slot punches in from the south. With colder air continuing to
filter south/southeast, a rain/snow mix could reach as far east as
Russell- Barton counties late Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Could see light accumulations on mainly grassy surfaces, probably
one inch or less.

All-in-all, storm-total rain amounts through Sunday evening of 1
to 2.5 inches appear on track across much of Wichita`s forecast
area, with higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible over far
southeast Kansas. This will likely produce pockets of
flooding/flash flooding, along with healthy rises on areas
rivers/streams (refer to "HYDROLOGY" section of this AFD).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Deterministic models and GFS ensembles continue to suggest rain
chances increasing again late Tuesday through early Wednesday,
especially over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, as a fast
moving yet deep trough approaches from the northwest. Strong lift
coupled with marginal instability could promote a few strong to
marginally severe storms, along with locally heavy rain.

Quiet spring weather is expected to return to the region Thursday
through the weekend, as model suite consensus builds an amplified
upper ridge across the western CONUS, eventually progressing it
east over Mid-America. Highs will gradually warm through the 60s
and into the 70s under mostly sunny/clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue across
the area this morning, with the strongest storms including very
heavy rain rates and gusty winds in far southeast KS. Storms are
likely to linger near the frontal boundary over southeast Kansas
this afternoon into tonight, with deformation zone rain/snow from
western into north-central Kansas. Widespread IFR ceilings should
prevail for much of today. The exception may be far southeast KS
where ceilings may lift into MVFR range for a period this
afternoon. Gusty north-northeasterly winds will prevail throughout
the forecast valid period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Latest QPF ensembles from the River Forecast Center suggest
healthy rises are likely on most rivers/streams across central,
south- central and southeast Kansas the next few days. Per these
ensemble forecasts, the rivers/streams and associated tributaries
that have the highest chance of exceeding flood stage include: the
Cow Creek northwest of Hutchinson (moderate flooding possible),
the Arkansas River at Arkansas City (minor flooding possible), and
the Neosho River from Chanute south through Oswego
(minor/moderate flooding possible).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  41  47  39 / 100  80  50  30
Hutchinson      45  38  44  37 / 100  80  60  40
Newton          47  40  45  37 / 100  80  60  40
ElDorado        50  43  49  38 / 100  70  50  40
Winfield-KWLD   52  43  50  39 / 100  70  50  20
Russell         41  35  38  34 / 100  90  80  50
Great Bend      40  35  39  35 / 100  90  80  40
Salina          45  38  45  37 / 100  80  70  50
McPherson       45  38  44  37 / 100  80  70  50
Coffeyville     61  49  55  41 / 100  80  40  20
Chanute         57  48  55  40 / 100  90  50  30
Iola            56  48  55  40 / 100  90  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    60  49  55  41 / 100  80  40  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC
HYDROLOGY...ADK


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