Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 260442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...FOG POTENTIAL IS STILL A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF A WARM FRONT...FROM
CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD. BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...THE
WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONGER MIXING AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING TO NOSE AND STRENGTHEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DESPITE SOME INCREASE
IN CIRROFORM CLOUDS BY SUNDAY PM...PLANNING TO MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS (RECORD LEVELS IN SPOTS).

AN UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
KS MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT CLEARING SOUTHEAST KS MON EVE.
THE QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE VERY MARGINAL...TARGETING SOUTHEAST KS WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER CAPPING CONVECTION POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDER MENTION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MONDAY EVE.
OTHERWISE...BARRING POST-FRONTAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...THEN UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. BY SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO
BE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THEN POTENTIALLY COOLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. THE CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
AREA IN THIS PATTERN ARE VERY LOW...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING WILL BE SOME VERY
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE IN THIS AREA. COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS OF 2-5SM AND POSSIBLY
SOME IFR OR LIFR CIGS DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE FOG CAN GET. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE BETWEEN 10-14Z/SUN WITH
CIGS NEAR 600 FEET AGL.

NOT AS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG CHANCES ELSEWHERE...AS SURFACE WINDS
WILL STAY UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AND KEEP THINGS
MIXED...WHICH WILL KEEP DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. WILL STILL KEEP A
TEMPO MVFR FOG CHANCE GOING FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KSLN TAFS.

OTHERWISE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE
MORNING PATCHY FOG BURNS OFF.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  93  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      58  92  60  75 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          59  92  61  76 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        59  92  63  81 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  92  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         55  88  52  71 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      56  89  52  71 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          57  89  58  75 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       58  92  60  74 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  88  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         59  87  62  81 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            59  87  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  87  63  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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