Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 132240
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
640 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

ONE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY. THESE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE COOL AIR WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
SMALLER AXIS OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THUS WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH CHANCE CENTRAL...AND DRY FAR NORTH. STILL A THREAT FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT THANKS TO
SUNSHINE FROM EARLIER.

TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH...AN UPPER JET
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THUS WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD
WHILE ENDING THEM AROUND MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY STAYED NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN ON
TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

WILL HAVE LINGERING POPS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH
THE OLD FRONT STILL HANGING OUT TO OUR SOUTH. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL HAVE ANOTHER UPPER
JET TO WORK WITH SO RAISED MAV POPS SOME /BUT STILL KEPT THEM IN THE
HIGH END OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW/.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT SO ENDED MOST
POPS BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY.

ON WEDNESDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH
PERHAPS A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED WITH IT SO FEEL THAT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM ON MONDAY WITH
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND STORMS...SO CUT BACK SOME. ALSO CUT MAV A
BIT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MOS MAY NOT BE GOING QUITE COOL ENOUGH
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

AREA SHOULD BE ROUGHLY BETWEEN A WEAKENING AND DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GO DRY THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL BUT EXHIBIT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL. FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE AFTER 08Z AS
WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT TO CALM WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WILL GO WITH 3SM AND KEEP BCFG TO SUGGEST IFR IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO WILL PASS OVER BMG FROM 23Z-01Z. SO...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP THERE FOR AN HOUR AT THE ONSET.

SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST AND REACH LAF AROUND 14Z
TOMORROW...IND AND HUF AROUND 16Z AND BMG AROUND 18Z. COULD SEE SOME
MORE STORMS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND CB GROUP
TO HANDLE THAT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...MK

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