Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 030439
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1239 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OR PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING A WAVY SQUALL LINE FROM JUST SOUTH
OF PORT HURON TO THE NORTHERN CHICAGO SUBURBS. HIS LINE WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS FROM
01Z HAVE THIS LINE EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...WHICH IS GRADUALLY TAKING
PLACE. IF IT CONTINUES TO FILL IN...THE LINE SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 2 AM AND THE METRO
CLOSER TO 4 AM. SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 WITH A MARGINAL RISK TO THE SOUTH. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. INTRODUCED VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND WHERE SPC
HAS A SLIVER OF THESE COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

ONLY INCREASED POPS ACROSS THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA BASED ON WETTER
SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS...MOST NOTABLY THE GFS. DID NOT INCREASE
CHANCES ELSEWHERE AS THE COLUMN STILL LOOKS VERY DRY PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL
THINKING THAT GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO BULLISH WITH PRECIP FOR THE
ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
ROUGHLY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING. MOS BLEND FOR LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY MONDAY AND STILL
TECHNICALLY BE MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. LEFT IN SOME WEAK/SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR POPS DURING THIS TIME. THEN THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
AND MEANDERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
PERIOD.

A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY...WHICH DOES NOT
LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH THE VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. SO WENT
DRY FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW BY MID WEEK...SCATTERED TO EVEN LIKELY POPS
(LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY) ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...SO
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MOS BLEND FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AS TIME PROGRESSES...THE MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY. THE GFS
HAS A SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS INFLUENCING THE RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A DRIER FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
THE EURO HOLDS STEADY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...RESULTING IN A
WETTER SOLUTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES
TO THE NORTH...THEN DRYING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION FAVORS THIS TREND.

WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR TO START AT THE SITES. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA COULD SINK SOUTH INTO KLAF AND POSSIBLY KIND
AROUND/AFTER 7Z AT KLAF AND 9Z AT KIND. HARD TO TELL IF THESE STORMS
WILL HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO IMPACT ANY OF THE SITES WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MORE CIN AS YOU HEAD SOUTHEAST AND SO STILL WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT KHUF OR KBMG. AT KIND WILL CONTINUE WITH A
VCTS. AT KLAF COULD STILL KEEP A TEMPO THUNDER GROUP IN AS IT HAS
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN THUNDER BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS
THAN IN PREVIOUS ISSUANCES.

FOR MONDAY SOME LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT MENTION AT
ANY OF THE SITES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AND WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AT LEAST AT KLAF AND
KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MMB/PUMA
AVIATION...CP


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