Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 301115
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
615 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Showers and thunderstorms continue to stay away from the terminals
this morning and should do so through the early afternoon. By
then,renewed development of TS is expected in the higher terrain.
This convection will spread north and east into the overnight
hours. Expect lowered visbys and gusty winds in and near any
thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a dirty upper ridge over the western CONUS, and
more or less zonal flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Further west, a trough runs the length of the west coast, sending
impulses across the Baja peninsula and into the region. Over the
next 48 hours, a reinforcing trough out of the nrn Pacific is
forecast to dig down the west coast, further reinforcing the one
already in place and nudging the ridge eastward. This will put
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft, w/models
bringing a trough thru the region during the day Wednesday. This
will coincide w/a nose of Gulf moisture coming into the region via
IVT ensemble graphics, w/1+" PWATS backed up against the
mountains for increasing chances of rainfall thru Wednesday. This
will then be followed by the main trough later in the workweek.
How much later is still in question, as some are slower than
others in moving it thru Texas. The GFS is fastest, and hints at
the arrival of the summertime ridge next week. If the slower
models pan out, portions of Texas could see rain well into the
weekend.

Increased cloud cover and rain should keep temps below-normal for
the next few days, w/above-normal conditions resuming Friday, and
continuing into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  68  80  64 /  10  40  60  60
Carlsbad                       87  66  78  60 /  20  60  80  70
Dryden                         83  68  81  64 /  40  70  80  20
Fort Stockton                  84  66  80  62 /  50  70  90  40
Guadalupe Pass                 77  59  73  56 /  30  80  90  60
Hobbs                          84  61  75  59 /  10  50  80  80
Marfa                          79  58  77  55 /  70  90  90  60
Midland Intl Airport           86  66  78  63 /  20  50  80  60
Odessa                         86  66  78  63 /  30  60  80  60
Wink                           87  66  79  62 /  30  60  90  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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