Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 142339
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
539 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds mostly less than 10kts are expected thru the night, however
another cold front will move in from the NW Mon AM resulting in
increased winds around/shortly after sunrise. Winds near 15kts
sustained will persist thru at least early afternoon decreasing
quickly thereafter. VFR wx will persist.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front is moving through the Permian Basin this afternoon as
shown by a northerly wind shift generally along the I-20 corridor.
Weak cold air advection and mid and upper level clouds kept
temperatures down earlier today, but clearing this afternoon has
allowed for a late warm up that will get highs near forecast
levels.

The MET continues its run of poor guidance, with verification
proving it to be way too cool with temperatures both in highs and
lows. For this reason will continue to stay close to MAV/MEX
guidance this forecast period which has highs as much as 20
degrees above normal. The cause for this warm weather is a zonal
upper air pattern that continues to leave west Texas and eastern
New Mexico with west to northwest flow. This is preventing any
moisture return and keeping us warm and dry. The GFS and ECMWF are
backing off the chances for rain early next week, and this is not
at all a surprise given the weak supporting upper trough.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     39  67  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       37  70  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  76  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  70  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 41  64  47  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  67  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          30  67  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  69  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         39  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           35  71  39  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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