Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 230017
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
By late afternoon, a cold front had pushed southwest through HOB,
MAF and nearing INK swinging the winds to easterly generally at
less than 12 knots. This initial front will make slow progress
southwestward through the evening. A stronger push of cold
air will bring somewhat stronger north to northwest winds
generally 15 to 20 knots with gusts 25 to 30 knots to area
terminals beginning with HOB and CNM around midnight and through
remaining terminals by 09Z. Windy conditions will continue through
Tuesday afternoon.

A broad area of precipitation will move into southeast New Mexico
between 06Z and 09Z. This area of precipitation will shift
southeast through the night affecting all area terminals. The
precipitation will start as rain or a rain and snow mix though
snow will predominate toward 12Z over southeast New Mexico into
parts of the Permian Basin area, including MAF. Along with the
precipitation, periods of MVFR are expected due to low ceilings
and fog. IFR conditions will be possible between 12 and 15Z at HOB
due to a combination of moderate snow and fog.

Conditions will improve from northwest to southeast beginning mid
morning as precipitation ends and drier air pushes into the area.
VFR conditions are expected by 19Z across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Current TTU Mesonet observations are indicating that winds have
shifted to the north across the South Plains and northern portions
of the Permian Basin.  This is really just the beginning of a
significant weather change that will occur later tonight into
Tuesday morning as a cold front moves into southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas.

Unlike models runs from just a few days ago that indicated a dry
frontal passage, these last few models runs have consistently
pointed to a wet solution, especially over Lea County New Mexico and
the northern Permian Basin Tuesday morning.  A chance of rain is
also forecast over the rest of the county warning forecast area into
Tuesday afternoon.

Similar to the previous forecast, assessment of 12Z model sounding
data through BUFKIT indicated the potential for what I would call a
glancing blow of winter weather over the northern and central
portions of Lea County and over the northwest Texas Permian Basin.
Precipitation will likely start as rain overnight, then transition
to a wintry mix of rain and snow across the northern half of Lea
County and for northwest portions of Texas Permian Basin including
Gaines and Dawson County.  Overnight temperatures look a hint too
warm to collect on roadways and at least right now, the greatest
potential for snow appears to be in a very small window of time,
perhaps from 6 am to 10 am Tuesday morning.  Thereafter, model
soundings suggest both drying and some warming.  As the day
progresses, areas further south will have a chance for some rain.

Overall, the impacts from this event should be minor.  Keep in mind
that if temperatures are just a few degrees cooler tomorrow morning
than expected, impacts on early morning travel could end up being
more significant.  There is at least some concern that a wintry
precipitation mix tomorrow morning could present travel issues with
slick conditions early on.  However, no snow or ice accumulations
are expected, except perhaps on grassy areas.

As quickly as this upper trough arrives, we should see it exit on
Wednesday.  A warming trend should take us through Christmas with
our next chance for precipitation after tomorrow being next Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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