Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 242130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.  AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT...POPS WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON.  THERE IS A
CHANCE THE THESE SHOWERS WILL REACH THE FOOTHILLS...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING THE BASIN AREA.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND MAKE UPDATES
AS NEEDED.  BY TOMORROW A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO REACH THE
BASIN AREA.

OTHER CONCERNS TOMORROW...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERS OVER THE
CWA...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDER.  THE ISSUE IS
THAT MODELS HAVE A MID LEVEL CAP AT ABOUT 650MB.  THIS WILL INHIBIT
TOWERING CUMULUS TO REACH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
850-500MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE AROUND 30 CELSIUS.  IF ENOUGH
SURFACED BASED HEATING OCCURS TO BREAK THE MID LEVEL CAP...THEN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 4000FT.  RIGHT NOW THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AREAS ABOVE 4500FT IN WALLOWA COUNTY COULD
RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY MORNING.  HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE AREA...AS OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SNOW ABOVE
5000FT.  RIGHT NOW THE ONLY AREAS THAT LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY THE
POTENTIAL SNOW...WOULD BE SR-3 FROM JOSEPH TO FLORA.  WEBER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
TAKE AIM ON THE TWO STATE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WA/OR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR
ALL TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT AND LCL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR SHOWERS. IN ADDITION BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH AN ISOLD TSRA UNTIL 02Z. OTHERWISE THE AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  58  37  59 /  40  50  20  10
ALW  43  59  42  60 /  40  50  30  10
PSC  44  63  41  65 /  20  10  20  10
YKM  37  60  36  60 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  42  62  38  63 /  20  20  20  10
ELN  35  59  35  59 /  20  10  10  10
RDM  31  50  27  53 /  50  20  30  10
LGD  37  50  34  53 /  70  60  40  20
GCD  35  46  30  49 /  60  40  40  10
DLS  41  61  40  60 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
FRIDAY : YELLOW
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/97/97










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