Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 142359
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
659 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX SYSTEM OVERRUNS EXITING ARCTIC AIR THROUGH MONDAY...FOR A
MESSY CONCOCTION OF WINTRY WEATHER THEN WATER CONCERNS. THE SYSTEM
EXITS EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLAKES SHOULD BE REACHING GROUND ON SCHEDULE IN THE TRI STATE
AROUND HTS ON SE TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NOW THROUGH DARK.

MAIN CHANGE WAS JUST TO ADD BOONE AND FAYETTE TO THE SOUTHERN
WARNING. ALSO WILL ADD JUST A FEW COUNTIES WITH THE LOWER SNOW
CRITERIA TO AN ADVISORY...INCLUDING ATHENS...WOOD...WIRT AND
CALHOUN.

AS SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN...ADDED SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
MONDAY IN NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA DUE TO THE COLD GROUND.
MAY EVEN BE SOME FREEZING AT 33 OR 34 DEGREES. NO REASON FOR AN
ADVISORY AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY.

THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW STILL HAS US CONCERNED ABOUT THE
FREEZING RAIN FROM THE BECKLEY/OAK HILL VICINITY ON NORTHEAST TO
SNOWSHOE AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUING IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS WERE MARGINAL FOR BOONE AND FAYETTE COUNTIES FOR THE
WARNING.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE 18Z MONDAY TO 00Z IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
ESPECIALLY WILLIAMSON...LOGAN...MADISON...CHARLESTON VICINITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE TURNED TO ALL
RAIN HOWEVER COLD AIR BECOMES WEDGED EAST OF APPALACHIANS AND NEAR
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. WARM LAYER ALOFT IS
MAKING FORECASTING P-TYPES MONDAY NIGHT A CHALLENGE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS STARTING THE NIGHT WITH A WINTRY
MIX AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN. POCAHONTAS COUNTY
WILL LIKELY SEE THE BRUNT OF THE ICING WITH AMOUNTS OF OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE OTHER CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT QPF AMOUNTS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY ARE CLOSE TO AN INCH IN SOME AREAS AND MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES COULD OCCUR AS RAIN FALLS ONTO FRESH SNOW FROM
EARLIER IN THE EVENT AND FROZEN GROUND. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO POSSIBLE LOW 40S SO NOT
EXPECTING A RAPID SNOW MELT AND THE NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ABSORB A LOT OF THE WATER.  AT THIS TIME WAS NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY HYDRO CONCERNS TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

AFTER A DRIER BUT OVERCAST INTERLUDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUE...06Z
MODEL RUNS ARE FARTHER S WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO CROSS TUE NT. THIS WOULD
BRING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE W THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN OVERNIGHT TUE NT...CHANGING ANY RAIN...FREEZING RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAT RETURNS TUE EVENING...BACK TO SNOW...WITH
LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OF GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES.

USED MOSTLY NAM FOR TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND USED A VARIETY OF
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SFC TEMPS. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY A MIX BETWEEN RFC AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL...QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM.
STILL SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING
CLIPPER EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DRIER...AND WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
TAKE HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK COULD EVEN CLIMB INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AS WAA INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW...WHICH WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

LOWEST VISIBILITIES WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH HEAVIEST
SNOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EXTREME
SOUTHERN OHIO...AND THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

THE SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS FROM 12Z TO 18Z MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AS WELL...BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT IT IN
THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR BECKLEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN IS MOST LIKELY
TO DEVELOP DURING THAT SAME TIME FRAME.

SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM AND
MOIST AIR MOVES IN LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE COLD SNOW
COVERED SURFACE AND VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP DUE
TO FOG AND RAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITY MAY IMPROVE AGAIN 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES AS PRECIPITATION TEMPORARILY DECREASES
ACROSS THAT CORRIDOR WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN COULD BE LATER AND ALSO VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP TO IFR OR BELOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ADVECTION FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
PROLONGED IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN MID OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
MOSTLY RAIN AND FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN MIXED LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HAVING ON/OFF PROBLEMS WITH THE CKB ASOS. TEMPERATURE READING TOO WARM AT
TIMES. TROUBLE TICKET STILL EXISTS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>008-
     013>016-027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ024>026-
     033>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ009>011-
     017>020-028>032-039-040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ037-038-
     047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ083>087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MPK/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK

EQUIPMENT...


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