Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 300740
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
340 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE FRONT THEN MEANDERING BACK
AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AMID WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
YET AGAIN...ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

A VORT MAX...AT 0615Z...VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER WISCONSIN...WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO...ALONG WITH THE OVERALL UNSTABLE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND PERHAPS
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. THIS...COMBINED WITH
0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS...WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. IN ADDITION TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
RISK...ALTHOUGH LIKE MONDAY...STORMS WILL MOVE ALONG...THEREBY
LIMITING WATER ISSUES SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH REPETITIVE STORMS COULD
CREATE ISSUES.

BULK OF CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL DIE OFF AS WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH SOME GRADUAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAIN/CLEARING...BUT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS
THERE SHOULD STILL BE A LIGHT WIND AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED SHOULD START LESS ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS
MOVES E OF THE AREA. THE THERMAL TROUGH MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
FOR INSTABILITY DRIVEN EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF.

WITH A SFC FRONT STILL NEARBY...A SHOT OF UPPER LEVEL SRN STREAM
ENERGY COMING OVERTOP OF THE WRN RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA
WED NT INTO THU. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...QUITE POSSIBLY TAKING THE FORM OF AN
MCS. THE NAM12 MAY BE OVERDONE WITH ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS
OVER KY ON ACCOUNT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NONETHELESS...AN ACTIVE
WED NT AND THU MORNING APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA.

ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM THU
AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO REFIRE IN THE RESULTING HEATING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION THU NT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE N. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHOT OF SRN STREAM
S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FRONT STILL
NEARBY TO THE S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...CLOSEST TO THE MET EARLY ON AND
THEN THE MAV...AND THEN A BLEND FOR LOWS AT THE END /THU NT/.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE WV/KY BORDER INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A NEW AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KEEPING MODELS SPITTING QPF ALL OVER THE PLACE SUGGESTING UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DECREASED POPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PER UNCERTAINTY AS THE ENSEMBLE MODELS DONT LOOK COHERENT
AT AND AFTER DAY 3.

HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL AGAIN BROAD BRUSH AND KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY. WATER CONCERNS
CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. ROLLED WITH WPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OFF...WITH ISOLD -SHRA
REMAINING...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KCKB TO KCRW...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH SUCH AS AT SITES KPKB AND KCKB...AND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR FOG ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 13Z...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD
HOLD ON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN A LITTLE LONGER.

CONVECTION WILL RAMP UP AGAIN GENERALLY AFTER 16Z TUESDAY...WITH
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG MAY DEVELOP
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL



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