Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 280149
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
949 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Active, mild pattern continues in a parade of southern stream
systems. The current system crosses tonight into Tuesday, and
then another crosses late Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 940 AM Monday...

No significant change.

As of 230 PM Monday...

A weak front remains stalled from west to east, along the Ohio
River between Ohio and Kentucky, eastward through central WV,
this afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms were firing up south of the front,
especially over eastern Kentucky, aided by a weak upper level
disturbance, a moisture feed from the southwest impinging upon
the front, and surface heating. All of this was leading to an
effective bulk shear axis of 40-45 kts extending up through
eastern Kentucky, along with 1000-1500 J/KG of CAPE. This has
resulted in an earlier / faster severe weather threat, in
concert with the eastward forecast trends from SPC.

North of the front, low level moisture has kept heating to a
minimum, helping to maintain a stout stable layer there until
the front moves north in increasing low level south to southwest
flow ahead of the main system approaching from the west this
evening.

The main system arrives tonight, after the loss of daytime
heating. While this may temper the severe threat somewhat,
associated organized convection associated with the main upper
level short wave trough, over the middle Mississippi Valley this
afternoon, may still pose a wind and excessive water threat, to
the degree it is able to hold together.

The system pulls off to the east Tuesday afternoon, leaving low
level moisture in the form of low clouds in its wake.

Near term temperature guidance resulted in slightly higher
values in the warm sector tonight, wet-bulbing into the mid and
upper 50s in the lowlands again, and slightly lower highs
Tuesday versus the previous forecast and the latest MET/MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Monday...

Cold front moves away from the region with high pressure
building in from the north. In response...precipitation chances
should come to an end by late Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 PM Monday...

Another system approaches the area for Friday bringing
precipitation chances back into the region. This system should
then push east Friday night with high pressure building in again
Saturday Night and Sunday. Expect chances for showers and storms
will decrease from the west on Saturday with the region expected
to be dry Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 755 PM Monday...

An upper level trough, and its associated surface low pressure
system and cold front, will bring numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the area tonight into Tuesday morning.
Expect VFR ceilings with isolated showers and thunderstorms ahead
of an initial band of organized showers and thunderstorms this
evening, with mainly MVFR within this band along with possible
gusty winds; although some brief IFR VSBY is also likely. Timing
of the initial band has it moving eastward across the area
between 01Z and 08Z, Behind this band will be an area of mainly
rain showers and mostly MVFR conditions. Most of the rain
showers will move east of the Ohio River by 13Z Tuesday with the
front, and exit the low lands by 17Z Tuesday, with lingering
mountain upslope rain showers through much of the afternoon.
Look for MVFR conditions to gradually improve from west to east
after 15Z.

Prevailing winds outside of thunderstorms will be southerly 3 to
7 KTS overnight, then becoming westerly 6 to 12 KTS behind the
front during Tuesday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storms this evening
may be an hour or two faster than forecast. There may be some post-
rain IFR fog and stratus later tonight into Tuesday morning,
especially if the winds go near calm.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 03/28/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV



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