Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 191827
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
227 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper level impulse brings some showers, perhaps an
afternoon thunderstorm, through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds late week through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

A weak upper level short wave trough moving across the area
this afternoon and Wednesday, may end the broken record of
overnight and early morning dense valley fog, although still
have some fog in the forecast.

The short wave, and the tail end of a warm front lifting through
the Great Lakes, was producing a patchwork of showers in a band
from Ohio southward, through eastern KY and central TN. There
were also thunderstorms included in the band farther south, in
KY and TN, on account of less cloud, and hence more heating,
ahead of it there. That trend will continue eastward, until
sundown reduces the thunder chance.

Continue to carry a slight chance for showers tonight as the
short wave trough moves over the area, with coverage increasing
a bit Wednesday afternoon per diurnal heating, and the feature
moving east. However, greater instability on some clearing
west, and higher dew points there, will tend to equalize the
chance for thunder west versus east.

Temperatures and dew points looked good in light of the latest
guidance, with clouds resulting in not quite as cool a night
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Still the possibility of isold showers and thunderstorms Thursday
and Friday as weak impulses traverse the region. Temperatures will
continue to run above normal for this time of year, with foggy
mornings continuing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Upper ridging will strengthen across the eastern U.S. during the
period, with continued hot/above normal temperature conditions.
Could be an isolated storm or shower over the higher terrain at
times, but overall, period looks to be relatively dry, with light
surface winds, and a continuation of foggy conditions in river
valleys. A cold front will arrive by the middle of next week/end of
the extended period, providing a greater chance for showers and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

A weak upper level disturbance may break the persistent morning
fog, as it brings altocu and some stratocu, along with some
showers, across the area this afternoon through Wednesday. Have
an MVFR fog forecast for overnight into Wednesday morning, with
IFR in fog late, toward dawn Wednesday in most cases, a little
earlier north. The chance for showers is too small for a
specific TAF mention this period, but a shower directly
impacting a site tonight, followed by any clearing, could easily
lead to dense fog. Have this idea coded for HTS very late.

Light and variable flow surface and aloft will become light west
aloft tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add a shower mention along and
west of I-77 this afternoon or early this evening. Timing and
density of fog may vary overnight into Wednesday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible each morning through the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM


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