Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 210531
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1231 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm through the work week. Weak system late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong cold front Friday night brings
cooler weather for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 9 PM Monday...
Basically took most of the fog out of the forecast tonight.
Despite valley winds decoupling for at least much of the night
before increasing late, air is just too dry.

As of 130 PM Today...

High pressure north of the area today slides off to the
northeast, and off the northeast U. S. coast, on Tuesday. That
high will keep dry weather in place most of the period. There is
a chance for showers getting into the middle Ohio Valley late
in the day on Tuesday, as an upper level short wave trough
approaches, but deep layer moisture and instability remain
absent.

Lowered lows a bit tonight but still closer to the higher MET
versus the lower MAV. Highs Tuesday were close to a blend of
the guidance and accepted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

Light shower activity will return to the region by Tuesday
evening/night, as a weak frontal boundary, and moisture from a low
in the Gulf of Mexico, interact. Overall, amounts look to be light,
with greatest activity expected across the southern zones, where
more moisture will be present from aforementioned low. Mostly dry by
mid week, but a warm frontal boundary will lift north across the
area on Thursday, with isold-sct showers and thunderstorms, mainly
across the north, as it does so. Temperatures during the period look
to remain above normal, particularly Thursday into Friday, as
southerly flow increases out ahead of approaching cold front. In
addition to the warmth, winds will pick up as we approach the end of
the work week, with gusty conditions developing due to enhanced
pressure gradient and increasing winds aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

Strong cold front will move through the area Friday night and
Saturday. Still some uncertainty in this time period, but
possible we could be looking at strong thunderstorms during this
time period. However at this point, greater chance of severe
lies just to the west of the CWA, where better instability and
shear will exist. Behind the cold front, Saturday will become
much cooler, and windy due to strong CAA, with the possibility
of light rain and snow showers developing later on into Sunday,
particularly across the higher terrain.

Linger some low end POPs Friday as well in the warm sector, and
then have POPs increasing pretty quickly Friday night as a cold
front moves through. ECMWF pretty quick on moving the moisture
out by Saturday afternoon, while the GFS has wrap-around
moisture lingering. For now stuck closer to the ECMWF and have
POPs ending by Saturday night, with a dry forecast on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z Tuesday thru 00Z Wednesday...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday...

VFR expected for most of the period. Fog should not be an issue
given dew point depressions. LLWS is possible as southerly flow
at 925 mb increases, but not confident to put in TAFs. A weak
system begins to make its way into the area towards the end of
this TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High becoming medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS may be an issue. MVFR possible at end
of TAF period.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 02/21/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JW


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