Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 291402
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1002 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure passes south of the area today. Cold fronts cross
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure Thursday. A low brings a
front into the area Friday. Unsettled again next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Monday...Clouds have been pushing out from west to
east this morning as the cold front moves across the region.
Where the clouds have cleared we have seen temps rising a bit
faster than previously forecast, so went ahead and updated to to
better align with current obs and trends. Depending on how much
Cu we see develop this afternoon, high temperatures may jump
just a couple of degrees more than the previous forecast so have
adjusted accordingly.

As of 7 AM Monday...

Fcst on track with the last of the showers in the mountains,
enhanced by upslope flow.

As of 330 AM Monday...

The last of the showers crossing northern WV early this
morning, will exit the mountains around dawn, or shortly
thereafter, as the causative cold front moves through. Today
will bring dry weather in the wake of the front, with high
pressure passing to the south of the area this afternoon.
The drop in dew points lags behind the front, which was
crossing the Ohio River early this morning. Values are not
forecast to settle into the 50s until this afternoon, when the
mixing layer climbs to at least h8.

Dew points climb again tonight, in southwest flow ahead of
another cold front approaching from the west. There should be
just enough flow, along with some clouds, to prevent much fog
from forming, except perhaps in the hollows of the southern WV
coal fields. Timing of the front gives rise to the chance for
showers over the middle Ohio Valley by dawn Tuesday, mainly
north of HTS.

Temperatures close to previous package and latest guidance
blends, with values at least leveling off ahead of the cold
front tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Unsettled weather remains Tuesday and Wednesday. Upper low to linger
across Great Lakes region in the short term period, with a series of
cold fronts, one on Tuesday, followed by another on Wednesday.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible during this
period as fronts traverse the region. Overall threat for severe
weather with these fronts remains low.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

After a brief break in the precipitation on Thursday, another front
will move south into the region Friday into Saturday, before
stalling out briefly and lifting back north late in the weekend as
another low moves into the Ohio Valley region. High moisture content
air will surge back into the area, with dew points rising into the
mid to upper 60s. This looks to be a period of heavy showers and
thunderstorms, and will need to be monitored for potential water
issues.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 7 AM Monday...

Showers will quit in the mountains first couple of hours of
forecast, with little aviation effects. There is patchy MVFR
stratocu that is more likely to produce ceilings 12-14z compared
with earlier this morning, on account of the heating-induced
morning cu effect. The mixing layer deepens later this morning,
mixing out the MVFR ceilings, and the mixing layer will become
deep this afternoon, to about h8, pushing cu bases up to about 6
kft.

VFR continues tonight as a cold front approaches. Its associated
clouds and gradient flow should preclude fog, save perhaps for
the hollows of the coal fields of southern WV. Showers ahead of
the cold front may reach the middle Ohio Valley, mainly north
of HTS, by dawn Tuesday.

Surface flow will be light west to southwest today, and then
light south tonight, while light to moderate west to northwest
flow aloft this morning becomes light west to southwest for this
afternoon and tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR morning cu may vary, but
confidence is high in high cu bases this afternoon. Valley fog
is not entirely out of the question tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in isolated showers and storms Tuesday and
Wednesday, and in fog Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MPK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM



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