Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 250833
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
333 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front sweeps east this morning. High pressure brings dry
weather by this afternoon with dry conditions anticipated into
the early next week. Next low pressure system mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

Latest radar mosaic shows a large area of moderate to occasionally
heavy showers was currently pushing east into the region. These
showers were associated with a cold front which was approaching
from the west.

The cold front and associated precipitation should push across
the region this morning with the precipitation coming to an end
as the front pushes east.

Models continue to generally show the highest rainfall amounts
over southeastern Ohio. Will continue the flood watch as the
ground is saturated and streams and rivers continue to run high
across the watch area.

High pressure will build in tonight with dry weather and light
northwest winds.

Blend of model guidance is very close for previous forecast for
highs today and lows tonight.  So only some minor tweaks made.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...

Some light rain showers my skirt our SW VA counties Monday
morning as a wave develops along the front SE of the area.
Otherwise, early next week will provide a brief respite from the
very wet weather of late. Sunshine and continued mild weather
will be a welcome sign indeed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...

The lull in the active weather will be short lived as another
wet system arrives for mid to late week. Rainfall amounts with
this system will have to be monitored for a renewed flooding
threat. Much colder air will move in behind this system with
mountain snow showers expected Friday and Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 AM Sunday...

Rain showers will spread slowly from west to east through the
overnight hours. Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions expected
especially in areas of moderate to heavy rain.

Ahead of the approaching rain showers, advection of warm moist
air northward could also produce periods of dense fog under
LIFR ceilings .

A cold front will quickly cross the area into the afternoon
hours. Gusty showers will be common along the front with a wind
shift to the west to southwest. Models continue to indicate the
possibility of LLWS conditions. Because of uncertainty, haver
opted to not include the mention of LLWS for now. However, will
have to monitor conditions invof the cold front.

Conditions should improve in the wake of the front. Expect VFR
conditions will spread east to the Ohio River around 15Z, across
much of the lowlands by 18Z and then the entire area by 20Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions will
vary, as will gusty winds. LLWS could also develop.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 02/25/18
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in dense fog Tuesday morning, and in rain
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this afternoon for WVZ005>011.
OH...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/30
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH



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