Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 231913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...INCREASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE PASSES
OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT ABOUT 14Z DEPICTING A COUPLE OF THIN
PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...WITH MORE GENERAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OHIO INTO INDIANA. 14Z OBS INDICATE THE SFC FRONT ROUGHLY ON
TRACK WITH FCST...STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST OF TOLEDO OHIO...STILL
WEST OF DAYTON OHIO...AND INTO SE INDIANA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD BE INTO THE SE OHIO
ZONES BY AROUND 21Z. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOW IN ITS
FORWARD PROGRESSION...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE I64 CORRIDOR
BTWN 00Z THU AND 03Z THU...AND STILL NEAR OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
THE 09Z-12Z THU TIME FRAME. SOME INDICATION VIA NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE
MODELS AS WELL AS RECENT RAP13 RUNS THAT BULK OF THE STRONGER
CONVECTION MAY MISS THE FAR NW ZONES AND RESIDE MORE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO AND TRI-STATE AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ALSO GOING TO ALLOW ISO SEVERE WORDING TO CONTINUE IN CURRENT HWO
WITH MINIMAL WINDS IN THE COLUMN AND VERY HIGH HAIL HEIGHTS...ANY
SEVERE WX SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN
GENERAL. LATEST NAM AND OP GFS RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH JUST A BIT VERSUS PREV RUNS. MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES AT 12Z THU AND WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THOSE AREAS...WILL LEAVE A
SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCE IN AS WELL. WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING
OVERHEAD AT 18Z THU WITH ASSOC COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WILL KEEP SKY COVER UP TO REFLECT A PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY OVER THE WV ZONES AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...AS USUAL...THE SE OHIO ZONES AND LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE OHIO RIVER WILL STAND TO SEE MORE MID/LATE DAY SUN VERSUS
POINTS FURTHER EAST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING FOR THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR
THE LOWLANDS. DO BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING...WITH A LATE-DAY REBOUND IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z-
03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z.

CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON.

IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

EQUIPMENT...KTB






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