Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281925
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH WEEKEND. COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY...WITH A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S.. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING.
ALREADY THE COLD ADVECTION IS WANING WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES IN THE EAST DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE DRY BY EVENING. HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION STRATUS WILL BE
RAPIDLY REPLACED BY WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER...SOME DRIER AIR IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SCATTERER OUT THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS...MINS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE COLD...IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY
JET...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH
THIS...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AND DEPTH LIMITED BY A WELL DEFINED
INVERSION ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL JET. THUS...WHILE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH...THE MOISTURE IS TOO
SHALLOW TO INCLUDE POPS DESPITE THE MODELS TRYING TO SQUEEZE MEAGER
QPF IN THE WEST. SO WILL GO DRY AND BREEZY SATURDAY...AND MUCH
MILDER DESPITE THE CLOUD INCREASE. LOOKS FOR HIGH GETTING INTO THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD...WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCOMING. THIS LAYER OF MOISTURE IS VERY THIN...ONLY
UP TO ABOUT 850-800MB WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF LOW LEVEL LIFT WITH THIS EITHER...SO HARD TO GO VERY HIGH ON THE
POPS. STILL ENVISIONING A LOW STRATUS DECK WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM
TIME TO TIME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THINGS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THOUGH MONDAY. HAVE
MUCH HIGHER POPS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH WARM AIR IN
PLACE THAT EXPECT ALL RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

USED A RAW CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS. BLENDED CONSENSUS MOS INTO
HIGHS WITH A NON DIURNAL TREND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STAYED CLOSE TO THE HPC FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS. THIS HAS A COLD
FRONT STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS THEN DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME
PERIOD IS LOW. HPC HAS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS ALONG AND WEST OF A
CRW-CKB LINE. EAST OF A CRW-CKB LINE...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TIL 21Z...POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY LOWERING TO IFR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. VFR ALL LOCATIONS
BY 22Z.

AFTER 00Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 7000 FEET AGL. AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
LOWERING CEILINGS TO AROUND 5000 FEET WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH ESPECIALLY WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS IN MOUNTAINS MAY VARY 1 TO 2 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV








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