Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 181231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2013 May 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 18-May 20 2013 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 18-May 20 2013

            May 18     May 19     May 20
00-03UT        5 (G1)     2          4
03-06UT        5 (G1)     2          4
06-09UT        4          2          3
09-12UT        3          2          3
12-15UT        2          5 (G1)     3
15-18UT        2          6 (G2)     2
18-21UT        2          6 (G2)     2
21-00UT        2          5 (G1)     3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected
on day 2 (19 May) with the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) from
17 May.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 18-May 20 2013

              May 18  May 19  May 20
S1 or greater   99%     95%     80%

Rationale: An S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm is expected to persist
through the forecast period.  Proton flux may increase on 19 May with
shock passage driven by the expected passage of the 17 May CME.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 18-May 20 2013

              May 18        May 19        May 20
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   50%           50%           50%

Rationale: R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts are expected
through the forecast period with a chance for R3 (Strong) radio
blackouts from Region 1748.
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