Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 260031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Nov 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 26-Nov 28 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 26-Nov 28 2014

            Nov 26     Nov 27     Nov 28
00-03UT        3          3          2
03-06UT        2          2          1
06-09UT        2          2          1
09-12UT        2          2          1
12-15UT        2          2          1
15-18UT        2          2          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 26-Nov 28 2014

              Nov 26  Nov 27  Nov 28
S1 or greater   10%      5%      1%

Rationale: There remains a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV
proton enhancement at or above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm
threshold for day one (26 Nov), before Region 2209 completely transits
off the visible disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 26-Nov 28 2014

              Nov 26        Nov 27        Nov 28
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance remains for an (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) radio blackout
during the period (26-28 Nov). Regions 2209 and 2217 appear to be the
most likely sources for any significant flare production.


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