Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 200031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Oct 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 20-Oct 22 2017 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 20-Oct 22 2017

            Oct 20     Oct 21     Oct 22
00-03UT        4          2          4
03-06UT        3          2          3
06-09UT        2          2          2
09-12UT        1          2          2
12-15UT        1          2          2
15-18UT        1          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active levels are expected on days one and three (20,22
Oct) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 20-Oct 22 2017

              Oct 20  Oct 21  Oct 22
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 20-Oct 22 2017

              Oct 20        Oct 21        Oct 22
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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