Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 250031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Oct 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 25-Oct 27 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 25-Oct 27 2014

            Oct 25     Oct 26     Oct 27
00-03UT        3          3          4
03-06UT        3          2          3
06-09UT        2          2          2
09-12UT        2          2          3
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          3          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2014

              Oct 25  Oct 26  Oct 27
S1 or greater   90%     65%     45%

Rationale: A greater than S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm is expected
early on day 01 (Oct 25) associated with an X3 flare that occurred at
2141 UTC on 24 Oct from Region 2192.  Levels are likely to persist above
the S1 threshold on day 02 (Oct 26) with a continued chance by day 03
(Oct 27).

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 24 2014 2141 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2014

              Oct 25        Oct 26        Oct 27
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   45%           45%           45%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected with a
chance for X-class (R3 or greater) radio blackouts for the next three
days (Oct 25-27).



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