Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 091231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Dec 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 09-Dec 11 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 09-Dec 11 2016

            Dec 09     Dec 10     Dec 11
00-03UT        4          3          4
03-06UT        2          3          3
06-09UT        3          3          3
09-12UT        4          3          3
12-15UT        3          3          2
15-18UT        4          3          2
18-21UT        4          4          3
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          3

Rationale: An isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is
likely on day one (09 Dec) due to CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 09-Dec 11 2016

              Dec 09  Dec 10  Dec 11
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 09-Dec 11 2016

              Dec 09        Dec 10        Dec 11
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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