Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 021231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Mar 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 02-Mar 04 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 02-Mar 04 2015

            Mar 02     Mar 03     Mar 04
00-03UT        4          4          3
03-06UT        4          3          2
06-09UT        5 (G1)     3          2
09-12UT        5 (G1)     3          2
12-15UT        4          3          2
15-18UT        3          3          2
18-21UT        3          3          2
21-00UT        3          4          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 02 Mar due to
continued coronal hole high speed stream effects.  No G1 (Minor) or
greater geomagnetic storms are expected on 03-04 Mar.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 02-Mar 04 2015

              Mar 02  Mar 03  Mar 04
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 02 2015 0948 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 02-Mar 04 2015

              Mar 02        Mar 03        Mar 04
R1-R2           25%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts on 02 Mar
due to flare activity from Region 2290 (N22W84).  No R1 (Minor) or
greater radio blackouts are expected on 03-04 Mar.



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