National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Versions: 1 2
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AXUS73 KABR 232048
DGTABR
MNC011-155-SDC013-017-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057-
059-065-069-075-085-089-091-107-109-115-117-119-129-222100-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013 /248 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...

SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATED CLOSER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO THE WELL
BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPERIENCED IN APRIL. WHILE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN MAY ARE RUNNING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL...THE
DEPARTURES ARE NOT AS GREAT AS WHAT WAS WITNESSED IN APRIL WHEN
RECORD BREAKING COLD WAS FELT. AFTER A RATHER QUIET START TO
MAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT THE FIRST BOUT
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN...THEN EVOLVED INTO A LARGE UPPER
LOW THAT SPUN OVER THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS...DROPPING MUCH
NEEDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THIS OCCURRED FROM MAY 17TH TO MAY
22ND. THE RAINFALL WAS WIDESPREAD AND COVERED MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...MORE IMPROVEMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE
DROUGHT MONITOR. ALTHOUGH TOPSOIL MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED...SUBSOIL
MOISTURE DEFICITS LINGER...BUT HAVE BEEN IMPROVING.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA IN EXTREME /D3/ DROUGHT...WHICH INCLUDES SOUTHWEST
CORSON COUNTY. THIS IS AN IMPROVEMENT FROM ONE MONTH AGO WHEN MOST
OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WAS COVERED IN EXTREME /D3/ DROUGHT.
SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT NOW COVERS SOUTHERN CORSON...DEWEY
STANLEY...AND JONES COUNTIES. MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
BEING FELT FROM NORTHERN CORSON COUNTY...SOUTH ALONG THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...THROUGH LYMAN AND BUFFALO COUNTIES.
ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ DROUGHT COVERS BASICALLY THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. ALTHOUGH...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO THE POINT WHERE
NO DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS ARE ASSIGNED TO MARSHALL...DAY...CLARK AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF BROWN AND SPINK COUNTIES. THESE ARE ALL ABOUT
A ONE-CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS SEEN ONE MONTH
AGO.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS.
NO RECENT ACTIONS KNOWN AT THIS TIME.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES SHOW DEFICITS GENERALLY FROM
0.75 INCHES TO 2.35 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST
DEFICITS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST USDA CROPS REPORT FOR SOUTH
DAKOTA ISSUED ON MAY 20TH...TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS RATED AT 5
PERCENT VERY SHORT...20 PERCENT SHORT...70 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND
5 PERCENT SURPLUS. SUBSOIL MOISTURE WAS RATED 20 PERCENT VERY
SHORT...41 PERCENT SHORT...38 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND 1 PERCENT
SURPLUS. THESE ARE ALL MODEST IMPROVEMENTS FROM CONDITIONS SEEN
ONE MONTH AGO.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
INFORMATION FROM THE LATEST USDA CROPS REPORT SHOWS WINTER WHEAT
CONDITION RATED 31 PERCENT VERY POOR...28 PERCENT POOR...33
PERCENT FAIR...8 PERCENT GOOD...AND 0 PERCENT EXCELLENT. SPRING
WHEAT AND OATS SEEDING WERE 90+ PERCENT COMPLETE. SPRING WHEAT
EMERGED WAS 53 PERCENT COMPLETE WHICH IS BEHIND THE 74 PERCENT
AVERAGE. OATS WERE 59 PERCENT EMERGED...BEHIND THE 69 PERCENT
AVERAGE. OATS CONDITION WAS RATED 1 PERCENT VERY POOR...3 PERCENT
POOR...49 PERCENT FAIR...42 PERCENT GOOD...AND 5 PERCENT
EXCELLENT. CORN PLANTED WAS RATED 75 PERCENT COMPLETE...AHEAD OF
THE 69 PERCENT AVERAGE. CORN EMERGED IS AT 16 PERCENT...BEHIND THE
24 PERCENT AVERAGE. PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS RATED 19 PERCENT
VERY POOR...32 PERCENT POOR...35 PERCENT FAIR...13 PERCENT
GOOD...AND 1 PERCENT EXCELLENT. HAY AND FORAGE SUPPLIES RATED 33
PERCENT VERY SHORT...33 PERCENT SHORT...33 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND
1 PERCENT SURPLUS. STOCK WATER SUPPLIES WERE 15 PERCENT VERY
SHORT...33 PERCENT SHORT...52 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND 0 PERCENT
SURPLUS.

RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS.
SEVEN-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW COMPARED TO HISTORICAL STREAMFLOW ARE
ALL IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THE MAJOR RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE
FORECAST AREA.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDICES EARLY IN MAY WERE FREQUENTLY IN THE
HIGH TO VERY HIGH RANGE...WITH A FEW EXTREME FIRE DANGER DAYS.
THIS WAS BEFORE GREEN-UP...WHICH IS NOW IN FULL FORCE AFTER THE
VERY WET PATTERN WHICH BEGAN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
PERCENT GREEN VALUES HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS WHICH HAS DIMINISHED THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER.

CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
NONE KNOWN AT THIS TIME.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

OVER THE PAST WEEK...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE...WITH A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES REPORTED. SOME LOCATIONS ENDED UP WITH 4
TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN. THE MORE NOTEWORTHY TOTALS ARE 4.96 INCHES
NEAR MOUND CITY IN CAMPBELL COUNTY...4.72 INCHES 8 MILES NORTH-
NORTH WEST OF MOBRIDGE...4.38 INCHES IN ROSCOE...AND 4.33 INCHES
NEAR EUREKA. THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN MAY AND LATE SEASON HEAVY
SNOWFALL IN APRIL HAVE PUSHED PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS...BOTH FOR MAY TOTALS THUS FAR AND SINCE THE START
OF THE CALENDAR YEAR.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

BOTH THE ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER RELEASED ON MAY 16TH
SHOW EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE JAMES RIVER AT COLUMBIA AND STRATFORD NOW HAVE A GREATER THAN
98 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE DURING THE NEXT 90
DAYS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ISSUED MAY 22ND. THE JAMES RIVER AT ASHTON SHOWS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
POINTS ALONG THE MAJOR RIVERS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SHOW 50 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND JUNE 23RD OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.HPRCC.UNL.EDU
NWS RIVER INFORMATION...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
USDA CROP INFORMATION...HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV/INDEX.ASP
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...HTTP://CLIMATE.SDSTATE.EDU
SDSU EXTENSION...HTTP://IGROW.ORG/AGRONOMY/DROUGHT
SOUTH DAKOTA DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...HTTPS://IGROW.CROWDMAP.COM
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...
STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

TRAVIS TARVER - DROUGHT FOCAL POINT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
824 BROWN COUNTY 14 SOUTH
ABERDEEN SD 57401
PHONE...605-225-0519
TRAVIS.TARVER@NOAA.GOV

$$
TMT
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
