Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
AXUS74 KAMA 231949
DGTAMA
OKC007-025-139-TXC011-065-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-
341-357-359-375-381-393-421-483-222359-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
248 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS RAIN AND STEADY DROUGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED THROUGH THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER ON JULY 15TH...DEPICTS SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG A LINE FROM
NEAR BORGER TX NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD KENTON OK...WITH MOSTLY EXTREME
(D3) DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEPICTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR DEPICTS IMPROVEMENT OF
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY TO MODERATE (D1) DROUGHT.
THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN DRY SPELLS THIS SUMMER...PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN
EVENTS AND INCREASED HUMIDITY HAVE KEPT THE EXTREMELY HOT AND DRY
WEATHER FROM SETTING IN LIKE THE PAST FEW SUMMERS. THIS SHORT TERM
RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT HAS BENEFITED FARMING AND RANCHING OPERATIONS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. LONG-TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...INCLUDING LOW RESERVOIR LEVELS...DRIER THAN NORMAL DEEP SOIL
ZONES...AND THINNED GRASS STANDS ON RANGELAND.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
REGULAR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BENEFITED MOST AGRICULTURAL
SECTORS THIS GROWING SEASON...AFTER A DRY START TO THE YEAR. SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE IMPROVED IN MOST PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WITH WETTER SOILS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EVEN
LIMITING COTTON AND CORN GROWTH IN SOME AREAS. FOR IRRIGATED
FIELDS...THE RAIN HAS BROUGHT THE OPPORTUNITY TO SLOW IRRIGATION USE
AND BUILD DEEPER SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES. OTHERWISE...DEMAND FOR
WATER REMAINS AT PEAK LEVELS FOR SUMMER CROPS AT THIS TIME. ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES...UPPER ZONE SOIL MOISTURE IS MOSTLY AT MODERATE
AGRICULTURALLY DRY (10 TO 20 PERCENT FULL) TO SLIGHT
AGRICULTURALLY DRY (20 TO 30 PERCENT FULL)...WITH AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EASTERN PANHANDLES AT GREATER THAN
40 PERCENT FULL. ACROSS AREAS WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVIEST...
LOWER ZONE SOILS RANGE FROM 90 TO GREATER THAN 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
ELSEWHERE...LOWER ZONE SOIL MOISTURE IS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX...AN INDICATOR OF LONG TERM
DROUGHT...MAINTAINS A RATING OF MODERATE DROUGHT FOR THE TEXAS
HIGH PLAINS REGION AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS OF JULY 19TH. THE PALMER
CROP MOISTURE INDEX...AN INDICATOR OF SHORT TERM DROUGHT...INDICATED
FAVORABLY MOIST TO SLIGHTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON JULY 19TH.

ACCORDING TO THE CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED JULY 15TH BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRILIFE PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE REGION REMAINED HOT AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. SOIL MOISTURE
RANGED FROM SHORT TO ADEQUATE. COTTON DEVELOPMENT IN COLLINGSWORTH
COUNTY VARIED WIDELY...FROM REPLANTED COTTON STRUGGLING TO KEEP UP
TO OLDER COTTON THAT LOOKED GOOD. DEAF SMITH COUNTY CROPS WERE DOING
WELL. CORN BEGAN TO TASSEL...ABOUT 10 DAYS BEHIND NORMAL. GRAIN
SORGHUM WAS DOING WELL WITH LATE PLANTINGS JUST MATURING. HANSFORD
COUNTY REPORTED THE WHEAT HARVEST WAS NEARLY COMPLETED. CORN WAS IN
VERY GOOD CONDITION EXCEPT SOME HAIL-DAMAGED FIELDS...AND WEEDS
CONTINUED TO BE A PROBLEM. RANGELAND AND PASTURES CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE...WITH CATTLE IN GOOD CONDITION.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
RECENT WETTING RAINS HAVE CONTINUED AN EFFECTIVE GREEN-UP OF AREA
VEGETATIVE FUELS. THUS...THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WILDLAND FIRE WILL
REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GROWING SEASON. FIRE
DANGER MAY INCREASE AGAIN ONCE VEGETATIVE FUELS ARE SUBJECTED TO
EITHER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT AND DRYING OR AFTER THE ONSET OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FALL. RAINS HAVE DROPPED ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES TO LESS THAN THE 50TH PERCENTILE...WITH VALUES
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 15 AND 45.

AS OF JULY 23RD...COUNTYWIDE OUTDOOR BURN BANS WERE SUPPORTED IN
ROBERTS...OLDHAM...POTTER...WHEELER...ARMSTRONG...AND DONLEY COUNTIES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...NO COUNTYWIDE
BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT.

NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT
FOR KEY WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF 20 FOOT WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT. WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE EXCEEDED...
EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO BE ELEVATED.

CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
SEVERAL PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES HAVE MAINTAINED
WATER USE WATCHES DURING THE ONGOING DROUGHT...WITH SOME OF THEM
PLACING VOLUNTARY AND EVEN MILD OR MODERATE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS ON
USE. IN DONLEY COUNTY...GREENBELT MIWA IS IN THE CONCERN PRIORITY
ACCORDING TO TCEQ. PLEASE BE AWARE OF ANY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS OR
CONSERVATION EFFORTS IN YOUR COMMUNITY.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WET AND DRY WEATHER HAVE CONTINUED SINCE THE
ABRUPT START TO THE RAINY SEASON IN LATE MAY. THE LAST 30 DAYS HAVE
BROUGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO
BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SCATTERED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
STRETCH FROM WESTERN CIMARRON COUNTY TO EASTERN HEMPHILL COUNTY HAS
SEEN THE LEAST RAIN OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...BOTH IN AMOUNT AND
FREQUENCY. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE AVERAGED ABOUT 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE
LAST 30 DAYS. THE RAINFALL AND RECENT COLD FRONTS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COOLER AND HUMIDITY HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW SUMMERS.
OUT OF 120 YEARS ON RECORD...IT WAS THE 37TH WARMEST AND 32ND WETTEST
JUNE FOR THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS CLIMATE DIVISION. FOR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...IT WAS THE 59TH WARMEST AND 18TH WETTEST JUNE OUT OF THE
LAST 120 YEARS.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES DOWN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) REPORTS THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC THROUGH JUNE.
THOUGH ABOVE-AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE PRESENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NO CLEAR AND CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR EL
NINO HAS DEVELOPED YET. THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
TO EL NINO CONDITIONS THIS SUMMER...WITH A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AN EL NINO THIS SUMMER AND A NEAR 80 PERCENT CHANCE DURING THIS
FALL AND EARLY WINTER. THE CPC FORECASTS THAT IF AN EL NINO
DEVELOPS...IT WILL PEAK AT WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH DURING LATE FALL
OR EARLY WINTER. THEREFORE...AN EL NINO WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT. DURING EL NINO EPISODES...THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FALL THROUGH
FOLLOWING SPRING PERIODS IN THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THERE
IS ALSO A TENDENCY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
OVER THE WINTER DURING EL NINO EPISODES.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST INDICATES BETTER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ALSO FOR JUNE...THE CPC OUTLOOK
INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST
THROUGH OCTOBER INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW...NEAR...AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. IT ALSO INDICATES BETTER
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
LATEST U.S. MONTHLY DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED BY THE CPC...FORECASTS
THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OR INTENSIFY ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE END OF JULY. THE LATEST
U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FORECASTS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY THROUGH OCTOBER FOR THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLES.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATERWATCH...STREAMFLOWS IN THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOLLOWING
RECENT RAINFALL...WITH STREAMFLOWS IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. LOWER ZONE SOIL RANGES MOSTLY FROM MODERATE
HYDROLOGICALLY DRY (10 TO 20 PERCENT FULL) TO SLIGHT HYDROLOGICALLY
DRY (20 TO 30 PERCENT FULL) ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. FROM THE CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...LOWER ZONE SOILS
ARE EXTREME HYDROLOGICALLY DRY (1 TO 5 PERCENT FULL) TO SEVERE
HYDROLOGICALLY DRY (5 TO 10 PERCENT FULL). RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR
HISTORICALLY LOW DEPTHS...THOUGH A RISE OF NEARLY 9 FEET HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AT LAKE MEREDITH FROM A MINIMUM JUST BEFORE MEMORIAL
DAY. LAKE MEREDITH REACHED A RECORD LOW DEPTH OF 26.14 FEET ON AUGUST
7TH LAST YEAR...BUT LEVELS HAVE RISEN 16 FEET SINCE THEN BASED ON
RAIN RECEIVED LAST FALL AND THIS SUMMER. WITH THE LAKE NOW ABOVE
DEAD POOL...IT IS ONCE AGAIN BEING TAPPED FOR WATER SUPPLY BY CRMWA.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JULY 23RD...

                     CURRENT   CONSERVATION     CURRENT             %
                   ELEVATION       CAPACITY     STORAGE  CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR               (FT)        (AC-FT)     (AC-FT)      CAPACITY

PALO DURO             2838.17         61066        1751          2.87
LAKE MEREDITH         2855.58        500000       17630          3.52
GREENBELT LAKE        2620.08         59968        7704         12.85

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY AUGUST 15TH...OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS):

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
NWS HYDROLOGIC SERVICES...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.SWT.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD...HTTP://WWW.TWDB.TEXAS.GOV/
TWDB RESERVOIR LEVELS...HTTP://WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/ABRFC/
TEXAS A&M AGRILIFE...HTTP://AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE...AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1900 ENGLISH ROAD
AMARILLO TEXAS  79108
PHONE: 806-335-1121
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AMA

$$

FENNER




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