National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions: 1
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AXUS74 KAMA 110417
DGTAMA
OKC007-025-139-TXC011-065-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-
341-357-359-375-381-393-421-483-312359-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1042 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

...SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED THROUGH THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER ON MAY 7...SHOWS PERSISTENCE OF SEVERE TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH SOME AREAS OF DEGRADATION. MOST PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLES ARE EXPERIENCING EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...A LINE FROM WHEELER
COUNTY TO ROBERTS COUNTY IS EXPERIENCING SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE SHORT TERM BENEFITS OF WINTER SNOWFALL QUICKLY
FADING. THE DRY AND COOL START TO THIS SPRING HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON
THE WINTER WHEAT CROP AND LIMITED SOIL MOISTURE FOR WARM SEASON CROPS
AND GRASSES. THE ONGOING MULTI-YEAR DROUGHT HAS LIMITED SURFACE WATER
SUPPLIES AND DEEPER SOIL MOISTURE.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
AFTER BENEFICIAL WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES...THE WINTER WHEAT CROP HAS BEEN SEVERELY IMPACTED BY A
COMBINATION OF FREQUENT LATE SEASON FREEZES AND THE DRIER START TO
SPRING. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SPRING RAINFALL...A THIRD
YEAR OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY FORCE FURTHER CATTLE HERD REDUCTION
AND LIMITED SUCCESS WITH SUMMER CROPS. IN AREAS THAT DID RECEIVE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK...UPPER ZONE SOILS RANGE FROM
SLIGHT AGRICULTURALLY DRY (20 TO 30 PERCENT FULL) TO GREATER THAN 40
PERCENT FULL. WHERE RAIN DID NOT FALL THIS LAST WEEK...UPPER ZONE
SOILS RANGE FROM EXTREME AGRICULTURALLY DRY (1 TO 5 PERCENT FULL) TO
MODERATE AGRICULTURALLY DRY (10 TO 20 PERCENT FULL). DEEPER SOIL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED...WITH SOILS RANGING FROM LESS THAN
1 PERCENT FULL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
FULL IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY
INDEX...AN INDICATOR OF LONG TERM DROUGHT...HAS DEGRADED TO A SEVERE
DROUGHT RATING FOR THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS REGION AND TO A MODERATE
DROUGHT RATING FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE PALMER CROP MOISTURE
INDEX...AN INDICATOR OF SHORT TERM DROUGHT...SHOWS ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION AND SLIGHTLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

ACCORDING TO THE CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED MAY 7TH BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRILIFE PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
WERE NOTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FOR THE THIRD WEEK IN A ROW...
THERE WAS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON FREEZE. LOWS IN THE MID
20S DEALT ANOTHER BLOW TO THE WHEAT CROP. INSURANCE ADJUSTERS
REMAINED UNDECIDED WHAT TO DO WITH THE CROP...WITH SOME RELEASING
THE CROP. OTHERS WERE HOLDING BACK AND ASKING PRODUCERS TO LET THEIR
FIELDS HEAD OUT. MANY FIELDS WERE SEVERELY DAMAGED FROM SIX MAJOR
FREEZES...AND PRODUCERS WERE TRYING TO RECOUP SOME OF THEIR LOSSES.
SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUED TO BE RATED MOSTLY VERY SHORT TO
SHORT. CORN WAS DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS DESPITE THE LOW SOIL
TEMPERATURES...WHILE RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE MOSTLY IN VERY POOR
TO POOR CONDITION.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION HAS LIMITED THE WILDLAND FIRE POTENTIAL
IN RECENT MONTHS...AS EVIDENCED BY NO SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRES IN THE
PANHANDLES SINCE DECEMBER. PERSISTENT UNDERLYING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
HOWEVER...MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN AMBIENT FIRE DANGER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILDFIRE SEASON. GRAZING AND A
GENERAL LACK OF REGROWTH DURING THE DROUGHT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRES THIS SPRING...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF ENHANCED
VEGETATION LOADING WITHIN ROUGH TERRAIN AND ON NON-GRAZED OWNERSHIPS.
AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
OCCURRENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AS OF MAY 10TH...COUNTYWIDE OUTDOOR BURN BANS WERE SUPPORTED IN
ALL BUT HANSFORD...ROBERTS...OLDHAM...GRAY...WHEELER...AND DEAF SMITH
COUNTIES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...NO
COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) IS USED AS A SYSTEM FOR
RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR
EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. AS OF
MARCH 18TH...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWS THAT MOST
PANHANDLES COUNTIES FALL WITHIN THE 400 TO 600 RANGE...WHICH IS MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL. IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER
AND DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.
TEXAS COUNTY IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...FALL WITHIN THE 600 TO 800
RANGE...WHICH IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SEVERE DROUGHT AND
INCREASED WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE. IN THIS RANGE...INTENSE...DEEP BURNING
FIRES WITH SIGNIFICANT DOWNWIND SPOTTING CAN BE EXPECTED. LIVE FUELS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TO BURN ACTIVELY AT THESE LEVELS. THIS RANGE IS
OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SEVERE DROUGHT AND WITH INCREASED WILDFIRE
OCCURRENCE. ROBERTS COUNTY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FALLS
WITHIN THE 200 TO 400 RANGE...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING AND THE
EARLY GROWING SEASON. IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS
ARE DRYING AND BEGINNING TO CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY. GRAY COUNTY
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FALLS WITHIN THE 0 TO 200
RANGE...WHICH MEANS THAT SOIL MOISTURE AND LARGE CLASS FUEL MOISTURES
ARE HIGH AND DO NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO FIRE INTENSITY. NOTE THAT FIRE
DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VARY. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY
WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF 20 FOOT WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT. WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE EXCEEDED...
EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO BE ELEVATED.

CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
SEVERAL PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES HAVE MAINTAINED
WATER USE WATCHES DURING THE ONGOING DROUGHT...WITH SOME OF THEM
PLACING VOLUNTARY OR EVEN MODERATE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS ON USE.
PLEASE BE AWARE OF ANY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS OR CONSERVATION EFFORTS
IN YOUR COMMUNITY.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

AFTER A LATE FEBRUARY BLIZZARD IMPACTED MOST OF THE PANHANDLES...A
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL SPRING HAS PERSISTED. MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR
APRIL WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL...WHICH STOOD OUT
NOTICEABLY COMPARED WITH THE NEAR RECORD HEAT OF LAST SPRING. APRIL
BROUGHT 10 FREEZES TO AMARILLO...SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY OCCURRED 4
OTHER YEARS OUT OF 122 ON RECORD FOR THE CITY. EARLY MAY BROUGHT 2
MORE FREEZES...MAKING THIS YEAR 1 OF ONLY 4 WITH AT LEAST 2 FREEZES
FOR THE CITY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE NOT THE ONLY ONES
SET...AS MANY LOCATIONS SAW RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SET WITHIN
DAYS OR EVEN HOURS OF A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD. THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SINCE THE BLIZZARD OCCURRED ON MAY 9TH...
WITH LARGE PARTS OF THE AREA RECEIVING AT LEAST ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN. SOME AREAS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. AFTER A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DIG INTO TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK. COMPUTER
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) INDICATES THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED INTO EARLY MAY ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. THE CPC IS FORECASTING ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS SUMMER. DURING NEUTRAL EPISODES...THE WEATHER PATTERNS
WHICH AFFECT THE PANHANDLES ARE TYPICALLY GUIDED BY OTHER SHORTER
TERM CLIMATE PATTERNS. ENSO FORECASTS ARE HISTORICALLY LESS ACCURATE
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
FEW MONTHS.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR MAY INDICATES THAT THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES HAVE A GREATER CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MAY INDICATES THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES
FOR ABOVE...BELOW...AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OUTLOOK FOR
MAY THROUGH JULY INDICATES BETTER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR MAY THROUGH JULY...
ISSUED BY THE CPC...FORECASTS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OR INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATERWATCH...STREAMFLOWS ARE AT BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO
SEVERE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT CONDITIONS. LOWER ZONE SOILS REMAIN AT
TOTAL HYDROLOGICALLY DRY (LESS THAN 1 PERCENT FULL) ACROSS MOST OF
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
LOWER ZONE SOILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES RANGE FROM EXTREME
(1 TO 5 PERCENT FULL) TO MODERATE HYDROLOGICALLY DRY (10 TO 20
PERCENT FULL). FREQUENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT SITUATION. LAKE MEREDITH
REACHED A RECORD LOW DEPTH OF 27.67 FEET ON MAY 7TH. GREENBELT LAKE
REMAINS NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS AT 12.1% FULL.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF MAY 10TH...

                     CURRENT   CONSERVATION     CURRENT             %
                   ELEVATION       CAPACITY    CAPACITY  CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR               (FT)        (AC-FT)     (AC-FT)      CAPACITY

PALO DURO             2835.45         61066        1204          2.00
LAKE MEREDITH         2840.66        500000           0          0.00
GREENBELT LAKE        2619.06         59968        7239         12.10

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MAY 30TH...OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS):

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
NWS HYDROLOGIC SERVICES...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.SWT.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD...HTTP://WWW.TWDB.TEXAS.GOV/
TWDB RESERVOIR LEVELS...HTTP://WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/ABRFC/
TEXAS A&M AGRILIFE...HTTP://AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE...AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1900 ENGLISH ROAD
AMARILLO TEXAS  79108
PHONE: 806-335-1121
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AMA

$$

FENNER
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
