Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...WITH LIMITED SUMMER RAINFALL...DROUGHT RAPIDLY RE-EMERGES...

FOR ADDITIONAL CONTENT...VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DROUGHT

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SYNOPSIS...

FLOODING SPRING RAINS BROUGHT AN END TO FOUR AND A HALF YEARS OF
DROUGHT...FILLING RESERVOIRS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT THE SPIGOT
QUICKLY TURNED OFF...WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL DURING JULY AND AUGUST.
MODERATE (D1) AND SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. BUT WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING COLD SEASON...ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION TOTALS...THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK PROJECTS
IMPROVEMENT OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE AS
EARLY AS THE FALL RAINY SEASON.

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CLIMATE SUMMARY...

MUCH OF THE REGION RECEIVED LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL RAINFALL DURING
JULY AND AUGUST. DESPITE THE DRY SUMMER...YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. IN
FACT...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR NORMAL ANNUAL
TOTALS...INCLUDING DFW AIRPORT.

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FIRE DANGER...

ABUNDANT SPRING RAINFALL RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE GROWTH. AFTER
SEVERAL WEEKS OF DRY WEATHER...MUCH OF THIS VEGETATION WAS DORMANT
OR DEAD...BECOMING FINE FUEL FOR WILDFIRES. IN ONE WEEK ALONE DURING
MID AUGUST...THERE WERE OVER 200 FIRES ACROSS THE STATE...CHARRING
OVER 30,000 ACRES. ON AUGUST 25...THERE WAS A 40-ACRE FIRE SOUTHEAST
OF GRAHAM IN YOUNG COUNTY.

AS OF SEPTEMBER 1...OUTDOOR BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 32 OF THE
46 COUNTIES WITHIN THE NWS FORT WORTH AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. EVEN
IF A FORMAL BAN IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA...IT IS STILL
IMPORTANT TO BE VIGILANT ABOUT FIRE USAGE. MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
(SUCH AS GRILLING) INVOLVE A RISK OF STARTING WILDFIRES. THE
NATIONAL FIRE PROTECTION ASSOCIATION ESTIMATES THAT 5000 OUTDOOR
FIRES AND ANOTHER 3800 STRUCTURE FIRES RESULT FROM GRILLING EACH
YEAR...RESULTING IN NEARLY 100 MILLION DOLLARS IN PROPERTY DAMAGE
ANNUALLY. AVOID OPEN FLAMES NEAR DRY VEGETATION...AND ASSURE ALL
COALS AND EMBERS ARE EXTINGUISHED.

AS COLD FRONTS USHER IN DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS FALL...THE
WILDFIRE DANGER MAY INCREASE. HOWEVER...OCTOBER IS AMONG THE WETTEST
MONTHS OF THE YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY. WITH ABUNDANT AUTUMN
RAINFALL...THE RESULTING GREEN GROWTH WOULD REDUCE THE FIRE THREAT.
EVEN AFTER FREEZING TEMPERATURES SEND WARM SEASON VEGETATION INTO
DORMANCY...A WET WINTER WOULD MAINTAIN MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

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LAKE LEVELS...

THE SPRING DELUGE FILLED NEARLY EVERY RESERVOIR ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. ALTHOUGH USAGE AND EVAPORATION HAVE LOWERED LAKE
LEVELS...ALMOST ALL REMAIN ADEQUATE TO MEET DEMAND. A HANDFUL OF
RESERVOIRS REMAIN IN THEIR FLOOD POOLS AND CONTINUE TO RELEASE THEIR
SPRING SURPLUS...INCLUDING RAY ROBERTS...LEWISVILLE...GRAPEVINE...
AND JOE POOL.

ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS HUBBARD CREEK RESERVOIR...A WATER SUPPLY
LAKE FOR THE CITY OF ABILENE. HUBBARD CREEK MORE THAN DOUBLED ITS
WATER STORAGE DURING SPRING...BUT REMAINED LESS THAN HALF OF ITS
CONSERVATION VOLUME. IT IS CURRENTLY ONLY ONE THIRD FULL.

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WATER RESTRICTIONS...

AFTER NEARLY 5 YEARS OF SIGNIFICANT WATER RESTRICTIONS...THE NORTH
TEXAS MUNICIPAL WATER DISTRICT (NTMWD) BEGAN ALLOWING TWICE-PER-WEEK
WATERING ON MAY 1. SPRINKLERS AND IRRIGATION SYSTEMS ARE STILL
PROHIBITED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM (APRIL 1 TO OCTOBER 31). THE NTMWD
SERVES 1.6 MILLION CUSTOMERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CITY OF
DALLAS.

IN APRIL 2014...THE FORT WORTH CITY COUNCIL MADE PERMANENT ITS
TWICE-PER-WEEK LIMIT ON LANDSCAPE WATERING. ONLY HAND WATERING IS
ALLOWED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM. ARLINGTON...ALSO WITHIN THE TARRANT
REGIONAL WATER DISTRICT (TRWD) SERVICE AREA...IS STILL REQUESTING
THAT RESIDENTS ADHERE TO A TWICE-PER-WEEK WATERING SCHEDULE...BUT
THE FORMAL RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN LIFTED. DALLAS HAS MADE PERMANENT
ITS TWICE-PER-WEEK LIMIT...BUT THE RESTRICTION ON DAYTIME WATERING
IS LIMITED TO THE WARM SEASON (APRIL 1 TO OCTOBER 31). SINCE WATER
RESTRICTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE METROPLEX...RESIDENTS
SHOULD KEEP INFORMED WITH THE CURRENT GUIDELINES FROM THEIR
MUNICIPALITY OR WATER UTILITY PROVIDER.

VOLUNTARY CONSERVATION CONTINUES FOR BOTH WACO AND TEMPLE/KILLEEN.
HOWEVER...WATER RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOME COMMUNITIES
WITHIN MCLENNAN AND BELL COUNTIES.

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PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

EL NINO CONDITIONS HAVE STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE WARM
SEASON...AND A STRONG EL NINO EVENT MAY BE IN THE OFFING THROUGHOUT
THE UPCOMING COLD SEASON. THIS HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE WET
OUTLOOK FOR THE FALL...THE UPCOMING WINTER...AND THE SPRING OF 2016.
BASED ON PREVIOUS EL NINO EVENTS...THE PROSPECTS FOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION ARE GREATER TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THE WET SIGNAL IS
STRONG IN CENTRAL TEXAS BUT IS MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE RED
RIVER AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE STRENGTH OF EL
NINO MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE...WITH STRONGER EL NINO EVENTS RESULTING
IN HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS.

OUTLOOKS FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SEASON ALSO FAVOR COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THESE ARE BASED ON
MULTI-MONTH AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS...WHICH CAN MASK
IMPORTANT DETAILS. PREVIOUS EL NINO EVENTS SHOWED A SIMILAR NORTH-
SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES...WITH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVING
A STRONGER COOL SIGNAL THAN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. DESPITE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE LONG
TERM...DUE PRIMARILY TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER REDUCING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW
ACTUALLY REDUCES THE INCIDENCE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. AS A RESULT...
EXTREME COLD IS LESS LIKELY DURING EL NINO WINTERS...AND THE OVERALL
NUMBER OF FREEZES IS GENERALLY LOWER THAN NORMAL.

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NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATER IN
SEPTEMBER.

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&&

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RELATED WEB SITES...

NWS FORT WORTH DROUGHT PAGE - WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DROUGHT

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM - DROUGHT.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES - WATER.WEATHER.GOV

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR - DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER - DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATES CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION AMONG
NUMEROUS AGENCIES...ACADEMIA...AND OTHER LOCAL INTERESTS. THE
EXPERTISE OF ITS MEMBERS HAS BEEN INVALUABLE IN DEVELOPING DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS.

THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (MAINTAINED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER) HAS ALLOWED VARIOUS IMPACTS TO BE COMPILED WITHIN
ONE CLEARINGHOUSE. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE AGRICULTURAL ISSUES...
HYDROLOGIC DEFICITS...FIRE DANGER...AND OTHER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES.

THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE CONTINUALLY MONITORS VEGETATION
CONDITIONS AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE STATE AGENCY ALSO MAINTAINS A
CURRENT LIST OF COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS.

OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE SUMMARIZED FROM A
VARIETY OF PRODUCTS CREATED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC).
CPC IS A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) ENTITY WITHIN THE NATIONAL
CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION (NCEP).

HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION IS COMPILED FROM NUMEROUS SOURCES...
INCLUDING THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE)...THE TEXAS WATER
DEVELOPMENT BOARD (TWDB)...AND LOCAL WATER DISTRICTS.

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QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
3401 NORTHERN CROSS BLVD.
FORT WORTH, TX 76137

PHONE: (817) 429-2631
E-MAIL: SR-FWD.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

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