Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 040624
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PMZ172-PMZ181-180000-
CHUUK-MAJURO-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
415 PM CHST THU MAY 4 2017

...EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS IN THE NORTHERN AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS...

SYNOPSIS...

THE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH JUNE AND LIKELY
INTO JULY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MONTHS. BY AUGUST...PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE WESTERN
MICRONESIA.

VERY DRY WEATHER REMAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE
DATE LINE WESTWARD OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS...MOST OF THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING
KAPINGAMARANGI...THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND MOST OF THE US-AFFILIATED
MICRONESIAN ISLANDS SOUTH OF 8N SHOULD HAVE ADEQUATE RAINFALL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAVE NOT SET UP YET...AND THESE
DISTURBANCES USUALLY HELP BRING THE SPRINGTIME AND EARLY SUMMER
RAINS TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
STILL INDICATES THAT WOTJE AND UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS ARE IN SHORT-TERM EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4).
ALSO...KWAJALEIN ATOLL ALONG WITH LOCAL COMMUNITIES...ESPECIALLY
ENEBOUJ AND EBADON HAVE WORSENED AND ARE NOW IN SHORT-TERM MODERATE
DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS SHOWED DRY CONDITIONS AND ONLY SPOTTY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS MOST OF MICRONESIA.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...

EXTREME DROUGHT IS AFFECTING WOTJE AND UTIRIK AND OTHER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ATOLLS. THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALLS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE
COMING WEEKS AND ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT 8N TO 10N SUCH AS
WOTJE...UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS WILL SUFFER
FROM CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...MALOELAP... LIKIEP AND AILUK ATOLLS AND
MEJIT ISLAND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS.

CHUUK STATE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...

FANANU AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE HALL ISLANDS ARE IN SHORT-TERM
MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4) AND COULD SOON MOVE INTO A
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITION (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4). CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWESTERN AND THE WESTERN ISLANDS.  WE WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THESE CONDITIONS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH JUNE OR JULY
...AND CLIMATE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS AUGUST. THE SKILL OF THE COMPUTER MODELS IS NOT
SO GREAT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND WILL IMPROVE BY JUNE. EASTERN
MICRONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF ABOUT 10N ARE EXPERIENCING EXTREME
DROUGHT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE COMING WEEKS.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   APR    APR
                                         (1-30) NORMAL % NORMAL

WOTJE             1.50  0.08  4.48  0.99  5.23  3.51  149
UTIRIK            1.99  0.63  MSG   MSG   TRACE 3.00   00
MAJURO           11.77 17.65  7.59 13.07 10.36  9.63  108
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE  10.36  9.00  5.60  1.07  3.44  6.21   55
FANANU           11.57  7.27  2.58  5.82  3.50  8.50   41
WENO CHUUK       19.83 11.37  8.27 15.74  7.15 12.22   59

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION
CAUSED BY PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD
HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT ONLY
SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS WOTJE...
UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...ENEWETAK...AILUK...LIKIEP...MALOELAP
AND OTHER NEARBY ATOLLS RECENTLY. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT ISLANDS NORTH OF 10 NORTH
LATITUDE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL FOR KWAJALEIN AND WOTJE
ATOLLS WILL RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH UP TO ONE AND A
QUARTER INCHES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS...WHILE MAJURO SHOULD EXPECT
AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT
UTIRIK...ENEWETAK...AILUK...WOTJE...AND MEJIT HAVE OPERATING REVERSE
OSMOSIS (RO) SYSTEMS. DESPITE THESE SYSTEMS...LOCAL VEGETATION AND
FOOD SOURCES WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SALTY. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR
WATER CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE.

HALL ISLANDS NORTH OF CHUUK LAGOON...

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT FANANU IN THE HALL ISLANDS SHOULD GET
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NEXT
10 DAYS. IF THAT RAIN OCCURS...IT WILL PROVIDE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF
FOR THE HALL ISLANDS. WE WILL MONITOR AND IF SIGNIFICANT RAIN DOES
NOT OCCUR...THE DROUGHT SEVERITY MAY BE INCREASED. WE WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CHUUK STATE ISLANDS AS
WELL.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE WELL-MAINTAINED AT ALL LOCATIONS SINCE
PASSING SHOWERS COULD AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY 18 MAY 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED
TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER
COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM
CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT.

THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...


CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS REMAIN IN EFFECT MAINLY
FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...THE
NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

GUARD/W. AYDLETT

$$



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