Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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AXUS74 KTSA 092102
DGTTSA
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-100915-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CST MON JAN 9 2017

...EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDED IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...

SYNOPSIS...

DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTENSIFIED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DUE TO A DRY DECEMBER.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR /USDM/ VALID 3 JANUARY 2017...EXTREME
/D3/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT OVER WESTERN PUSHMATAHA...WESTERN
CHOCTAW...NORTHERN LATIMER...HASKELL...NORTHERN LE FLORE AND
SEQUOYAH COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
CRAWFORD...SEBASTIAN...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF
PAWNEE...OSAGE...TULSA...WASHINGTON...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...
WAGONER...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...
PITTSBURG...HASKELL...SEQUOYAH...LATIMER...LE FLORE...CHOCTAW AND
SOUTHWEST PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SEBASTIAN...CRAWFORD...WASHINGTON...BENTON...MADISON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER PORTIONS OF
PAWNEE...OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...CRAIG...OTTAWA AND DELAWARE COUNTIES
IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND BENTON...WASHINGTON...CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ BUT NOT EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST
OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...CRAIG AND
OTTAWA COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CARROLL COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE USDM IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND
ACADEMIC PARTNERS. IT IS A WEEKLY NATIONAL PRODUCT ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MORNING USING DATA COLLECTED THROUGH THE PREVIOUS
TUESDAY MORNING...SO IT DOES NOT CONSIDER PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS
FALLEN AFTER THE DATA CUT-OFF TIME.

THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR. THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING...
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY /NOT IN DROUGHT BUT SHOWING DRYNESS/
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT

THE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS ISSUED BY THE NWS
OFFICE IN TULSA WHEN NEEDED TO SUPPLEMENT THE NATIONAL USDM
PRODUCT. LOCAL STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY DURING TIMES
WHEN THE USDM INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS WARRANT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
THE OKLAHOMA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE /OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL
SURVEY...OCS/ HOSTS RECORDED BRIEFINGS FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...IMPACTS..AND OUTLOOKS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPDATED DROUGHT BRIEFINGS ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/USER/SCIPP01

SOIL MOISTURE IMPACT.
ACCORDING TO THE USDA...70 PERCENT OF OKLAHOMA TOPSOIL MOISTURE
WAS RATED SHORT/VERY SHORT FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...AN INCREASE
OF 15 PERCENT OVER NOVEMBER.

THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY /OCS/ DAILY AVERAGED
FRACTIONAL WATER INDEX FOR 8 JANUARY 2017 SHOWS VALUES OF 0.3 TO
0.9 /WHERE 1.0 IS SATURATED AND 0.0 IS COMPLETELY DRY/ AT 2...4
AND 10 INCHES BELOW GROUND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF BOTH HIGHER AND LOWER VALUES. AT 24 INCHES BELOW THE
GROUND...VALUES WERE 0.0 TO 0.5 ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY FROM BARTLESVILLE TO MCALESTER TO LE FLORE
COUNTY.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE
ANOMALY ANALYSIS AS OF 8 JANUARY 2017 SHOWED SOIL MOISTURE WAS
60-160 MM /2.36-6.3 IN/ BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FIRE IMPACTS.
A COUNTY BURN BAN WAS IN EFFECT FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY. SEVERAL LARGE
WILDFIRES HAVE OCCURRED IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA SINCE DECEMBER
30...INCLUDING A 120 ACRE FIRE IN ADAIR COUNTY...A 150 ACRE FIRE IN
PUSHMATAHA COUNTY...AND A 165 ACRE FIRE IN CHOCTAW COUNTY.

AGRICULTURE.
ACCORDING TO THE USDA...APPROXIMATELY 25 PERCENT OF THE OKLAHOMA
WINTER WHEAT ACREAGE AND 24 PERCENT OF THE PASTURE ACREAGE WAS
RATED POOR/VERY POOR FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL REPORTS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA OF VERY LOW FARM
PONDS...WITH SOME PONDS COMPLETELY DRY AND/OR LOWER THAT THE
2010-2015 DROUGHT. THE WAGONER COUNTY FARM SERVICE AGENCY STATED
THAT SOYBEAN YIELDS WERE DOWN THIS FALL...PECANS WERE A TOTAL
LOSS AND THE WATER SUPPLY FOR CATTLE IS WORSE THAN THE PREVIOUS
DROUGHT PERIOD.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS...AROUND 0.10 TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND 0.25
INCHES TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ACCORDING TO OCS...FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS ENDING 8 JANUARY 2017...NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 10TH DRIEST PERIOD SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1921. EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 16TH DRIEST AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 9TH DRIEST. SINCE THE BEGINNING OF
THE WATER YEAR TO DATE /1 OCTOBER 2016 - 8 JANUARY 2017/...NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 23RD DRIEST...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS
AS THE 10TH DRIEST AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 7TH
DRIEST.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE EVAPORATION
AND LEAD TO WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT COLD AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT REMAINING WARM. THE STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO GET
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL WILL HELP
TO IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...THOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN. IN THE COLDER AIR...ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A
GREATLY ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 2017 /ISSUED 31
DECEMBER 2016/ INDICATES AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR ABOVE...NEAR...AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /COE/...SEVERAL OF
THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WERE OPERATING PLUS OR MINUS 5 PERCENT OF THE TOP OF THE
CONSERVATION POOL. HOWEVER...THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIRS WERE
OPERATING MORE THAN 5 PERCENT BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL LEVEL AS
OF 9 JANUARY 2017: EUFAULA LAKE 70 PERCENT...TENKILLER LAKE
72PERCENT...BEAVER LAKE 73 PERCENT...HUGO LAKE 75
PERCENT...FORT GIBSON LAKE 75 PERCENT...BIRCH LAKE 79
PERCENT...KEYSTONE LAKE 81 PERCENT...KAW LAKE 83 PERCENT...SKIATOOK
LAKE 85 PERCENT AND COPAN LAKE 88 PERCENT.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...THE 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW WAS MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS OF 8 JANUARY 2017 ALONG THE
KIAMICHI RIVER NEAR CLAYTON AND NEAR ANTLERS...THE JAMES FORK NEAR
HACKETT...BARON FORK AT DUTCH MILLS...MULBERRY RIVER NEAR MULBERRY AND
LEE CREEK NEAR SHORT. BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW WAS OBSERVED AT A
MAJORITY OF THE OTHER STREAM GAGE SITES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE WERE NO ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOW
MEASUREMENTS.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 10 FEBRUARY 2017 OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.


RELATED WEBSITES...

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TSA/DROUGHT_INFO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABRFC/DROUGHT

OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY DROUGHT TOOLS
HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV/INDEX.PHP/CLIMATE/CATEGORY/
DROUGHT_WILDFIRE

ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US

OKLAHOMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TULSA DISTRICT
HTTP://WWW.SWT-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REALTIME DATA
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS INCLUDING THE NWS...THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
USACE AND THE USGS.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
10159 E. 11TH ST. SUITE 300
TULSA OKLAHOMA 74128
PHONE   918-838-7838
EMAIL   SR-TSA.WEBMASTER AT NOAA.GOV

$$


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