Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FGUS71 KALY 172058
ESFALY

NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-111-113-115-VTC003
-25-MAC003-CTC005-301200-


WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
458 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 8 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THIS IS THE EIGHTH OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD FROM APRIL 17TH TO MAY
1ST 2014.

FLOOD POTENTIAL...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING FOR THE SPRING OF
2014 IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ONGOING OR RECEDING FLOOD FLOWS. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
MUCH OF THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK MELTING AND ADIRONDACK RIVER ICE
FLUSHING OUT. HOWEVER A COMBINATION OF WET SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOWS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...LEAVES THE OVER ALL FLOOD POTENTIAL NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM.

SNOW PACK CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT FLOODING...
RECENT RAINFALL COMBINED WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF SNOW MELT HAS
DRASTICALLY REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF
VERMONT. BASIN AVERAGE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS FOR CATSKILL RIVER
BASINS BASED ON SURVEY DATA WERE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE RONDOUT WATERSHED
AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE ASHOKAN AND SCHOHARIE WATERSHEDS.
SELECTED MODEL CALCULATED BASIN AVERAGE EQUIVALENTS AS OF APRIL 17TH
ARE LISTED BELOW. FOR THE LATEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS CHECK
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AND RUNOFF POTENTIAL...
SOIL MOISTURE IS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...RUNOFF POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

RIVER FLOWS AND ICE CONDITIONS...
FLOWS IN AREA RIVERS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT EVENT. RIVER ICE CONDITIONS NO LONGER POSE A
THREAT FOR ICE JAM FLOODING.

RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...
RECENT RAIN AND SNOW MELT HAVE PUSHED RESERVOIRS TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT
RESERVOIRS ARE ALL NOW NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NYC DEP RESERVOIRS ARE AT 99.2 PERCENT OF CAPACITY...WHICH IS 0.7
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION...
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF APRIL...TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED ABOVE
NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS RANGED FROM AN INCH AND A HALF BELOW
NORMAL TO AN INCH AND A HALF ABOVE NORMAL. SINCE THE FIRST OF THE
YEAR...TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED TWO TO SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AND PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED THREE INCHES PLUS OR MINUS NORMAL.

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APRIL
24TH THROUGH THE 30TH CALLS FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE FLOODING
ANY TIME OF THE YEAR.

THE NINTH WINTER SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR
THURSDAY...MAY 1ST 2014...BUT WILL ONLY BE ISSUED IF DEEMED
NECESSARY. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY...AND IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
FLOODING WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.

OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT OUR WEB
PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY.

&&

ESTIMATED BASIN AVERAGE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ON APRIL 17 2014.
THIS DATA IS FROM THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING
CENTER AT WWW.NOHRSC.NWS.GOV

SACANDAGA RIVER ABOVE HOPE...0.09 INCHES
SACANDAGA BASIN ABOVE GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE...0.07 INCHES
INDIAN RIVER ABOVE INDIAN LAKE...0.12 INCHES
HUDSON RIVER ABOVE NORTH CREEK...0.08 INCHES
HUDSON RIVER ABOVE FORT EDWARD...0.09 INCHES
WEST CANADA CREEK ABOVE HINCKLEY...0.17 INCHES
MOHAWK RIVER ABOVE LITTLE FALLS...0.12 INCHES
EAST CANADA CREEK ABOVE EAST CREEK...0.12 INCHES
SCHOHARIE CREEK ABOVE PRATTSVILLE...0.09 INCHES
BATTENKILL ABOVE ARLINGTON...0.31 INCHES
BATTENKILL ABOVE BATTENVILLE...0.32 INCHES
WILLIAMS RIVER ABOVE ROCKINGHAM...0.10 INCHES
WALLOOMSAC RIVER ABOVE BENNINGTON...0.34 INCHES
HOOSIC RIVER ABOVE WILLIAMSTOWN...0.26 INCHES
HOOSIC RIVER ABOVE EAGLE BRIDGE...0.35 INCHES
ESOPUS CREEK ABOVE ASHOKAN RESERVOIR...0.01 INCHES
RONDOUT CREEK ABOVE RONDOUT RESERVOIR...0.02 INCHES
HOUSATONIC RIVER ABOVE GREAT BARRINGTON...0.30 INCHES

$$

BEW


















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