Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017

...The first Spring Flood Potential Outlook for the
Western Carolinas and extreme northeast Georgia calls for a
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL to NEAR NORMAL risk for small-stream
flooding and a WELL-BELOW NORMAL to BELOW NORMAL risk for
mainstem river flooding across the region through early
spring 2016...

===============
HISTORICALLY...
===============

The mainstem river flood season typically begins in late December.
The quantity, frequency, magnitude, and significance of river
flood events often increases through late winter with a peak in
early to mid-March. The mainstem river flood season typically ends
by late April for the region.  This season began in severe to
extreme drought across much of the region and, as a result, it will
take more frequent and more significant precipitation over the next
few months to increase the chance of mainstem flood occurrence
across the region.

=============================================
14-DAY OBSERVED PRECIPITATION and FLOODING...
=============================================

Region        Observed    % of      Mainstem    Small Stream
              Precip      Normal    Flooding    Flooding
              (in)

NC Piedmont   1.50-4.00 |  75-200 | None      | Iso. Action Stg.
NC Foothills  0.75-2.50 |  40-125 | None      | None
NC Nrn Mnts   1.00-3.00 |  50-150 | NA        | None
NC Cntl Mnts  0.75-3.00 |  75-100 | None      | None
NC Srn Mnts   0.75-3.00 |  40- 90 | None      | None

SC Mnts       1.75-3.00 |  50-120 | NA        | None
SC Foothills  2.00-3.50 |  80-200 | None      | None
SC Piedmont   1.75-4.00 |  90-225 | None      | None

GA NE Mnts/   2.50-3.50 |  70-140 | None      | None
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   1.75-2.50 |  70-140 | None      | None

======================
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
======================

28-Day average streamflows are below normal to well-below normal
across the Western Carolinas and northeast Georgia.
For more information, please review: http://weather.gov/gsp/drought.

=============
RESERVOIRS...
=============

Area reservoirs are generally slightly below to well-below their
target pools for this time of year.  For more information,
please review: http://weather.gov/gsp/drought.

==========================
SNOW DEPTH and FORECAST...
==========================

Region        Snow   Snow Water  7-Day Snowfall
              Depth  Equivalent  Forecast
              (in)   (in)        (in)

NC Piedmont   0-1  | <0.10     | 6-12
NC Foothills  0-1  | <0.10     | 4-8
NC Nrn Mnts   0-1  | <0.10     | 4-8
NC Cntl Mnts  0-1  | <0.10     | 3-6
NC Srn Mnts   0-1  | <0.10     | 3-8

SC Mnts       None | None      | 4-8
SC Foothills  None | None      | 3-8
SC Piedmont   None | None      | 1-8

GA NE Mnts/   None | None      | 2-6
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   None | None      | 1-3

============================================================
1-7 DAY FUTURE PRECIPITATION FORECAST and FLOOD POTENTIAL...
============================================================

Region        7-Day       % of      Mainstem     Small Stream
              Precip      Normal    Flood Ptntl  Flood Ptntl
              (in)

NC Piedmont   0.50-1.00 | 100     | Zero       | Zero
NC Foothills  0.50-1.00 | 40-125  | Zero       | Zero
NC Nrn Mnts   0.50-0.75 | 40-100  | NA         | Zero
NC Cntl Mnts  0.50-1.00 | 25-125  | Zero       | Zero
NC Srn Mnts   0.75-1.25 | 40-125  | Zero       | Zero

SC Mnts       0.75-1.00 | 50-100  | NA         | Zero
SC Foothills  0.75-1.00 | 60-125  | Zero       | Zero
SC Piedmont   0.75-1.25 | 75-150  | Zero       | Zero

GA NE Mnts/   0.75-1.00 | 40-100  | Zero       | Zero
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   0.75-1.50 | 60-200  | Zero       | Zero

==================================
8-90 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...
==================================

Region        8-14 Day          15-30 Day         30-90 Day
              Precip            Precip            Precip
              Outlook           Outlook           Outlook

NC Piedmont   Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Equal Chances
NC Foothills  Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml
NC Nrn Mnts   Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml
NC Cntl Mnts  Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml
NC Srn Mnts   Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml

SC Mnts       Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml
SC Foothills  Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Equal Chances
SC Piedmont   Equal Chances   | Slight Abv Nrml | Equal Chances

GA NE Mnts/   Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Equal Chances   | Slight Abv Nrml | Equal Chances

Note that Equal-Chances means there are equal chances for
above-normal...normal...and below-normal precipitation during
the given period.  In other words, there is no clear signal for
precipitation during the given period.

==========================
LONG-TERM FLOOD OUTLOOK...
==========================

Therefore, given current antecedent conditions and long-range
precipitation guidance, the long-term flood outlook through the
end of April 2017 is as follows...

Region        Runoff            Small             Mainstem
              Potential         Streams           Rivers

NC Piedmont   Near Normal     | Near Normal     | Slight Blw Nrml
NC Foothills  Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal
NC Nrn Mnts   Near Normal     | Near Normal     | NA
NC Cntl Mnts  Near Normal     | Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal
NC Srn Mnts   Near Normal     | Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml

SC Mnts       NA              | Slight Blw Nrml | NA
SC Foothills  Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal    | Below Normal
SC Piedmont   Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal    | Well-Below Nrml

GA NE Mnts/   Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal    | Below Normal
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Below Normal    | Below Normal    | Well-Below Nrml

===================
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
===================

The precipitation analysis is derived from quality-controlled
gridded precipitation estimates produced at the Lower Mississippi
River Forecast Center (LMRFC) and the Southeast River Forecast
Center (SERFC).

The 1-7 day future precipitation is derived from guidance produced
at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).

The long-term precipitation outlooks are derived from guidance
produced at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Streamflow information is courtesy of the United States Geological
Survey (USGS).

Reservoir information is courtesy of Duke Energy...Georgia Power...
and the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE).

The general outlook is produced in collaboration with the LMRFC and
the SERFC.

=====================
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
=====================

The next flood outlook will be issued by Friday, January 20th, 2016.

=====================
LATEST INFORMATION...
=====================

For the latest status of streams and mainstem rivers across the
region please visit:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/area.php?wfo=gsp&hydro_type=0&
hsa_type=1

========================
QUESTIONS or COMMENTS...
========================

This product has undergone several revisions and enhancements during
the most recent flood outlook period.  Additional enhancements are
planned for future flood outlooks. Your feedback and recommendations
are encouraged in order to ensure this product meets user needs.
Please direct feedback, recommendations, questions, and comments to:

National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office - Greenville-Spartanburg
1549 GSP Drive
Greer SC 29651
Phone 864-848-9970
joshua.palmer@noaa.gov

$$

JMP



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