Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

PAST AND EXISTING CONDITIONS...

RAINFALL...RAINFALL HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA SO
FAR DURING THE DRY SEASON OF 2015-2016. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE
NOVEMBER ARE RUNNING AT 150 TO 300 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. HERE ARE RAINFALL TOTALS AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
FROM THE OFFICIAL NWS OBSERVING SITES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA:

- MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS MEASURED 27.79 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE NOVEMBER 2015 WHICH IS 18.45 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL RAINFALL
OF 9.34 INCHES.

- FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS MEASURED 21.95 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SINCE NOVEMBER 2015 WHICH IS 9.52 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL
RAINFALL OF 12.43 INCHES.

- PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS MEASURED 22.97 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SINCE NOVEMBER 2015 WHICH IS 8.65 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL
RAINFALL OF 14.23 INCHES.

- NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT HAS MEASURED 13.32 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE NOVEMBER 2015 WHICH IS 5.77 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 7.55
INCHES.

SOIL MOISTURE... THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI), WHICH IS AN
INDICATOR OR SOIL DRYNESS, SHOWS WET TO VERY WET CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

GROUND WATER CONDITIONS...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. IN THE EVERGLADES...WATER CONSERVATION AREA A1 IS
AROUND AROUND 17 FEET, WATER CONSERVATION 2A IS AROUND 13 FEET,
AND WATER CONSERVATION 3A IS AROUND 11.5 FEET. THE LEVEL OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WAS AROUND 15.8 FEET WHICH IS AROUND 1.3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL OF 14.5 FEET.

RIVER FLOWS...THE CURRENT LEVEL OF FISHEATING CREEK IS AROUND 5.4
FEET, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OUTLOOKS...

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY AS OF MARCH 2
IS FOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH IS
FOR AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK... THE LATEST CPC THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK FOR THE
PERIOD FROM MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR AN CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK... BASED ON THE PAST AND CURRENT HYDROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS, HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OUTLOOK
INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, THE POTENTIAL
FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA IS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

INFORMATION USED TO COMPLETE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THIS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY...SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE US ARMY
CORPS OF ENGINEERS.

FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEORLOGICAL DATA...PLEASE VISIT THE
FOLLOWING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITES:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC

$$



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