Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FGUS71 KPHI 152122
ESFPHI
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-
077-089-091-095-101-172130-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
422 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 4

This is the forth in a series of annual Winter/Spring Flood
Potential Statements intended to provide insight into the
likelihood of river flooding (not flash flooding) over the
middle/lower Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan
River basins. These statements will provide information on flood
threat conditions such as recent precipitation, soil moisture,
snow cover and its water equivalent, river ice conditions,
streamflow, future precipitation and others.

This outlook does not address the severity or extent of any
future river flooding.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor
which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy
rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even
when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low.

This outlook is valid from February 15 to March 1, 2018.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is at or above normal.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the
statement (FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York
office.

CURRENT FLOODING - None.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - Variable, normal to well above normal.
Between 4.0 and 6.5 inches of liquid have been recorded over the
last 30 days with the highest amounts falling across southern
New Jersey. Precipitation departure maps can be found at
www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - Below normal. Little snow covers the ground anywhere
in the HSA. The only snow is across the northern portion in the
Delaware Basin. At the moment, water equivalents are one-half
of an inch or less. Depth and basin-average water equivalent
estimates can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the
Seasonal Interest tab) or www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National
Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - Below normal. The extensive river ice we experienced
in January has diminished.

STREAMFLOW - Normal to well above normal. Real time water data is
available from the United States Geological Survey by visiting
http://water.usgs.gov.

SOIL MOISTURE - Normal. Soil moisture monitoring charts (Long
Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s Climate
Prediction Center can be found at the following websites...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region are variable, ranging from below
normal to above normal. Additonal information can be found at
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs
in the area are running below normal to normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - An active pattern seems likely the
next two weeks. Several shots of moderate rain is likely. Some
heavier rain, even if isolated, seems unavoidable. A warm front
will lift through the area early tonight, followed by a slow
moving cold late tonight into Friday morning. High pressure builds
into the area Friday night, then offshore on Saturday. An area of
low pressure will approach the area from the south later Saturday
into Saturday night. High pressure briefly builds across the area
again Sunday, then offshore Sunday night. A warm front is
expected to lift across into the area Monday into Monday night
Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. The overall 8 to 14
day outlook calls for above normal temperatures and near normal
precipitation.

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration,
including the well-above 30 day average rainfall and current
streamflow, the overall flood potential is at or above normal.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:
www.weather.gov/phi

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH MARCH 1, 2018:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...At or above normal
FLOODING...None
RECENT PRECIPITATION...Normal to well above normal
SNOW COVER...Below normal
RIVER ICE...Below normal
STREAMFLOW...Normal to well above normal
SOIL MOISTURE...Normal
GROUND WATER...Variable, below normal to above normal
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...Below normal to normal

$$

Kruzdlo



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