Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FGUS71 KPHI 192038
ESFPHI
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-
077-089-091-095-101-022130-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EST THU JAN 19 2017

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 2

THIS IS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER
DELAWARE, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER BASINS.
THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS
SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND ITS
WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE CONDITIONS, STREAMFLOW, FUTURE
PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS.

THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT OF ANY FUTURE
RIVER FLOODING.

IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF YEAR, EVEN
WHEN THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM JANUARY 19 TO FEBRUARY 2, 2017.

IN THE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA), THE
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING WEEK
ONE (THROUGH JANUARY 26) AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL DURING WEEK TWO.

NOTE - FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, SEE THE STATEMENT
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) FROM OUR BINGHAMTON (BGM), NEW YORK OFFICE.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - BELOW NORMAL. BETWEEN 2.0 AND 3.0 INCHES OF
LIQUID HAVE BEEN RECORDED OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. PRECIPITATION
DEPARTURE MAPS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE
WATER SUPPLY TAB).

SNOW COVER - BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL. LITTLE SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE HSA. THIS IS UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS OUR
MOST NORTHERN BASINS. ELSEWHERE, THE LACK OF SNOW IS ABOUT NORMAL.
DEPTH AND BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE SEASONAL INTEREST TAB) OR
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (UNDER THE NATIONAL ANALYSIS TAB).

RIVER ICE - BELOW NORMAL. LITTLE IF ANY ICE IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
THE HSA.

STREAMFLOW - BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL. REAL TIME WATER DATA IS
AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BY VISITING
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE MONITORING CHARTS
LONG-TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX) FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES...
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/REGIONAL_
MONITORING/PALMER.GIF AS WELL AS WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

GROUND WATER - USGS MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VARIABLE, RANGING FROM BELOW
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTP://GROUNDWATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS IN
THE AREA ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

SUMMARY - TAKING ALL OF THE INCLUDED VARIABLES INTO CONSIDERATION,
THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEEK
ONE AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WEEK TWO.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH FEBRUARY 2, 2017:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEEK ONE AND NORMAL
                          TO BELOW NORMAL WEEK TWO
FLOODING...NONE
RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW NORMAL
SNOW COVER...BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL
RIVER ICE...BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW...BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE...NORMAL
GROUND WATER...BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...BELOW NORMAL

$$

KRUZDLO



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