Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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FGUS72 KTAE 061359
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ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-061800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
859 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014 /759 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...

...ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM OCTOBER THROUGH FEBRUARY HAS GENERALLY
BEEN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
BEING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL ARE AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES. AREAS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND HAVE SEEN A SURPLUS OF
RAINFALL IN THIS PERIOD. THE NET RESULT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIVER BASINS HAS RESULTED IN OCCASIONAL
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER PORTION OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
AND THE APALACHICOLA RIVER THROUGHOUT THE WINTER MONTHS.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOILS REMAIN MOIST FROM NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL WITH AREA LAKES AND HOLDING
PONDS STILL RATHER FULL. WHILE CAPACITY IS A LITTLE GREATER THAN SPRING
2013...THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT STORAGE CAPACITY...AND THIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT LATER THIS SPRING IF HEAVIER RAINS MATERIALIZE.

...CURRENT STREAM FLOWS...
STREAM FLOWS ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
WHILE ALL RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE...ELEVATED FLOWS NEAR
ACTION LEVELS CONTINUE ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER. STREAM FLOWS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND DOWN INTO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...WHILE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN AREAS TO THE WEST...REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENTILE RANGE.

...RESERVOIRS...
MOST RESERVOIRS ARE ABOVE THEIR TARGET POOL AND CONTINUING STRATEGIC
RELEASES TO MANAGE ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS. OCCASIONAL RELEASES FROM LAKE
SEMINOLE BEFORE AND DURING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN DOWNSTREAM SITES ALONG THE APALACHICOLA RIVER REACHING MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS.

...LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED IN LATE
FEBRUARY SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES FOR BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL
THROUGH THE SPRING PERIOD. SEE CPC WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE NEXT 8 TO 14 DAYS...INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR EARLY MARCH. LATER THIS
SPRING AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A DRIER PATTERN COMMON TO
MID APRIL...THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
LONG TERM ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES...RECENT RAINFALL...AND CURRENT STREAM FLOWS
SUGGEST AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING
THROUGH THE SPRING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...CHIPOLA...AND
APALACHICOLA RIVER SYSTEMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING...THOUGH
STILL ELEVATED...IS A LITTLE LESS FURTHER EAST ACROSS OUR REGION IN
THE WITHLACHOOCHEE AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASINS. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
HIGHEST THROUGH MARCH AND INTO EARLY APRIL. THEREAFTER ...THE INCIDENTS
OF STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS DECREASE AS THE
JET STREAM SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS PROVIDED
COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER AND THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
FLORIDA BIG BEND...

GO TO: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE
AND UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS ...CLICK ON RIVERS & LAKES

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...
GO TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP


$$

GODSEY





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