Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 161600
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
1100 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...HOWEVER, IF THERE IS NOT AT LEAST NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE
WEEK TWO TIMEFRAME...MUCH OF THE AREA COULD BE CHANGED TO BELOW
NORMAL IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK.

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR 28-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS IN THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...A MIX
OF STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA...BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS PREVAIL.  IN
A LINE FROM CHARLESTON NORTH TO BLACKSBURG VIRGINIA...NEAR NORMAL
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE PREVELANT.  ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN, THE BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS.

PAST PRECIPITATION...IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON SERFC
MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE WHOLE AREA AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN SOME PARTS.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE SAVANNAH BASIN WHERE NEAR
NORMAL RAINFALL WAS RECEIVED.
.

RESERVOIRS...MOST OF THE RESERVOIRS IN THE REGION ARE NEAR THEIR
TARGET POOLS.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT IS ALONG THE SAVANNAH BASIN AT
THE BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.  THE TWO MAIN CORPS
RESERVOIRS THAT HAVE THE LARGEST WATER SUPPLY ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

SNOW PACK...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA.

SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES SHOW BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AREA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.   LESS THAN ONE
HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THAT
TIME.  WEEK TWO SHOWS A BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST
NORMAL RAINFALL...MAYBE MORE.  IF THAT RAINFALL IS NOT REALIZED, THE
SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK MAY CHANGE IN OUR NEXT ISSUANCE.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THE WINTER INTO
EARLY SPRING...BASED ON THE CPC LONG LEAD OUTLOOK...BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR NEAR NORMAL AS YOU APPROACH THE HEADWATERS/MOUNTAINS
AREA.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY MONTH.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE
MENU.

HAMILL



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