Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS63 KMSR 222324
ESGGND

GRAND..MUSKEGON..WHITE..PERE MARQUETTE RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 12/29/2014 - 3/29/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Red Cedar River
WMSM4             9.0   10.0   10.5     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ELNM4             7.0   10.0   13.0    25   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sycamore Creek
HHTM4             8.0    9.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Looking Glass River
EAGM4             7.0    9.0   11.0    54   40   10    6   <5   <5
:Maple River
MRPM4             9.0   11.0   13.0    35   40   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Thornapple River
HSTM4             7.0    9.0   10.0    32   29   <5   <5   <5   <5
CLDM4            10.0   12.0   14.0    10   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rogue River
ROCM4             8.0   10.0   11.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Flat River
SMYM4             8.5    9.5   10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Grand River
JACM4            14.0   15.0   16.0    25   31   15   12    6    6
ETNM4             6.0    8.0    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DMDM4            13.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LNSM4            11.0   13.0   15.0    10    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
GDLM4            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PORM4            12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
IONM4            21.0   23.0   25.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
LWLM4            15.0   18.0   20.0     7   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
ADAM4            20.0   22.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GDRM4            18.0   21.0   23.0     7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Muskegon River
EVRM4            12.0   13.0   14.0     7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Muskegon River
MORM4             6.0    7.0    8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Muskegon River
CROM4             9.0   11.0   12.0    12   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:White River
WHTM4             6.0    7.0    8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pere Marquette River
SCTM4             5.5    6.5    7.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1222 Z DH12 /DC1412222323/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 12/29/2014 - 3/29/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Red Cedar River
WMSM4       6.0/    6.2/    6.6/    7.4/    8.1/    8.7/    9.2
ELNM4       5.1/    5.2/    5.6/    6.4/    7.2/    7.8/    8.5
:Sycamore Creek
HHTM4       5.6/    5.8/    6.1/    6.7/    7.1/    7.6/    8.0
:Looking Glass River
EAGM4       5.1/    5.3/    6.2/    7.2/    7.9/    9.1/    9.5
:Maple River
MRPM4       8.5/    8.5/    8.5/    8.9/    9.2/    9.5/    9.5
:Thornapple River
HSTM4       4.7/    5.0/    5.6/    6.5/    7.4/    8.3/    8.7
CLDM4       5.4/    5.9/    6.7/    7.7/    9.3/   10.1/   11.0
:Rogue River
ROCM4       5.2/    5.2/    5.8/    6.2/    7.1/    7.8/    8.4
:Flat River
SMYM4       4.8/    4.8/    5.1/    5.3/    6.3/    7.0/    7.5
:Grand River
JACM4      10.9/   11.1/   11.7/   12.8/   14.1/   15.6/   16.3
ETNM4       4.0/    4.0/    4.2/    4.5/    4.9/    5.3/    5.6
DMDM4       6.5/    6.8/    7.3/    8.1/    9.0/   10.0/   10.6
LNSM4       5.9/    6.0/    6.9/    8.0/    9.6/   11.2/   11.8
GDLM4       6.6/    6.6/    7.0/    7.6/    8.4/    9.3/    9.6
PORM4       8.3/    8.4/    8.8/    9.4/   10.3/   11.4/   11.7
IONM4      14.9/   14.9/   15.8/   17.7/   19.7/   20.7/   21.1
LWLM4       9.3/    9.3/    9.9/   11.2/   13.7/   14.8/   15.8
ADAM4      12.7/   12.8/   14.0/   15.5/   18.1/   19.2/   19.9
GDRM4       8.7/    9.0/   10.3/   12.7/   15.8/   17.4/   18.4
:Muskegon River
EVRM4       8.6/    8.9/    9.3/    9.9/   10.7/   11.6/   12.4
:Little Muskegon River
MORM4       2.6/    2.8/    3.0/    3.4/    3.7/    4.8/    5.0
OKGM4       4.3/    4.5/    4.8/    5.4/    6.0/    7.3/    7.8
:Muskegon River
CROM4       6.3/    6.6/    7.2/    7.6/    8.3/    9.2/   10.1
:White River
WHTM4       3.2/    3.4/    3.8/    4.4/    5.0/    5.5/    5.7
:Pere Marquette River
SCTM4       2.8/    3.1/    3.5/    3.8/    4.2/    5.0/    5.1
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1222 Z DH12 /DC1412222323/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 12/29/2014 - 3/29/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Red Cedar River
WMSM4       3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3/    3.2
ELNM4       3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3
:Sycamore Creek
HHTM4       3.0/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8
:Looking Glass River
EAGM4       3.6/    3.5/    3.2/    3.0/    2.8/    2.7/    2.6
:Maple River
MRPM4       5.9/    5.7/    5.0/    4.4/    4.1/    3.9/    3.8
:Thornapple River
HSTM4       3.4/    3.4/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9
CLDM4       4.0/    4.0/    3.8/    3.6/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3
:Rogue River
ROCM4       4.5/    4.4/    4.3/    4.2/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0
:Flat River
SMYM4       3.9/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4
:Grand River
JACM4       9.3/    9.3/    9.2/    9.1/    8.9/    8.9/    8.8
ETNM4       3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6
DMDM4       5.6/    5.4/    5.2/    5.1/    4.9/    4.7/    4.6
LNSM4       3.7/    3.6/    3.4/    3.2/    3.0/    2.8/    2.7
GDLM4       5.5/    5.4/    5.3/    5.2/    5.0/    4.9/    4.9
PORM4       6.4/    6.3/    6.1/    6.0/    5.8/    5.7/    5.6
IONM4      10.4/   10.1/    9.5/    9.2/    8.8/    8.6/    8.5
LWLM4       6.5/    6.4/    6.0/    5.7/    5.4/    5.2/    5.1
ADAM4       8.6/    8.4/    7.8/    7.3/    6.7/    6.4/    6.2
GDRM4       4.1/    3.9/    3.7/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3
:Muskegon River
EVRM4       7.7/    7.6/    7.5/    7.4/    7.3/    7.2/    7.2
:Little Muskegon River
MORM4       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2
OKGM4       3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4
:Muskegon River
CROM4       5.5/    5.4/    5.3/    5.1/    5.0/    5.0/    4.9
:White River
WHTM4       2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7
:Pere Marquette River
SCTM4       2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.7/    1.7/    1.6/    1.6
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




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