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000
FGUS63 KKRF 211710
ESGLSH

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1208 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  5/25/2013 - 8/23/2013 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:S FK SOLOMON R AT WOODSTON KS 1S
WODK1              12.0  16.0  27.0    14   22   11   17   <5   <5
:N FK SOLOMON R AT PORTIS KS
PTIK1              15.0  20.0  25.0    27   20    9   14   <5    6
:MULBERRY CR AT SALINA KS 3W
SLNK1              24.0  26.0  27.4    25   33   19   22   <5   <5
:GYPSUM CR AT GYPSUM KS 4S
GYSK1              15.0  19.0  22.0    29   32   11   13   <5   <5
:MUD CR AT ABILENE KS 1NW
ALEK1              15.0  27.0  33.0    12   12   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0525 Z DH12 /DC1305211208/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 5/25/2013 - 8/23/2013

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:S FK SOLOMON R
WODK1       6.1/    6.2/    6.2/    6.3/    7.3/   18.0/   20.1

:N FK SOLOMON R
PTIK1       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    5.8/   15.6/   19.1/   22.4

:MULBERRY CR
SLNK1       4.3/    4.3/    6.5/   13.3/   24.0/   26.5/   26.9

:GYPSUM CR
GYSK1       4.7/    4.7/    6.7/    9.2/   16.4/   19.1/   20.2

:MUD CR
ALEK1       1.5/    1.5/    3.0/    8.3/   11.7/   15.5/   16.3

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$