Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER TAUNTON MA
549 PM EDT WED JAN 03 2018

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /1/

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS BELOW NORMAL IN THE NEAR TERM.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LONGER
TERM...EXCEPT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LONGER TERM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN AND TUG HILL IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE BUFFALO
CREEKS AND GENESEE RIVER IN WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
NEAR TERM BUT MAY INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LONGER TERM.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

THE NORTHEAST WAS CURRENTLY IN THE MIDST OF AN EXTENDED ARCTIC
OUTBREAK FROM LATE DECEMBER INTO EARLY JANUARY.

PERSISTENT SUBFREEZING COLD BEGAN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT DECEMBER 25-26TH. THE EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WHERE CONTINUED SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES BEGAN IN MID DECEMBER.

AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD FROM DECEMBER 26TH
THROUGH JANUARY 1ST RANGED -15 TO -20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

OVERALL...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CHARACTERIZED DECEMBER
2017 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH
GENERALLY RANGED FROM -3 TO -6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

DECEMBER 2017 PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES MOSTLY VARIED FROM BELOW
NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE WERE SOME EXCEPTIONS OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
AND LOCALLY IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES FROM +0.50 TO +1.00 INCH
OCCURRED IN KNOX AND WALDO COUNTIES IN EASTERN MAINE. THE MONTHLY
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE AT CARIBOU MAINE WAS ALMOST AN INCH ABOVE
NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES FROM +0.50 TO +1.50
INCHES WERE NOTED ACROSS CATTARAUGUS...WYOMING AND LEWIS COUNTIES IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

THE GREATEST NEGATIVE PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES FROM -1.50 TO -2
INCHES WERE FOUND IN THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.

DECEMBER 2017 SNOWFALL TOTALS GENERALLY RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...THANKS MOSTLY DUE TO DEVELOPING
COASTAL AND CANADIAN MARITIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DECEMBER 9TH...
12-13TH AND 23-25TH...AND ALSO DUE TO COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

A WEAK LA NINA PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THIS IS
TYPICALLY CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES PERSISTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S....AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET
STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AND A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OR NORTHEASTERN U.S.

LOOKING AT THE TELECONNECTION PATTERNS...THE COMBINATION OF A
POSITIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN PHASE (PNA)...NEGATIVE EASTERN
PACIFIC OSCILLATION PHASE (EPO) AND NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION
PHASE (AO) HAVE ALLOWED COLDER THAN NORMAL AIRMASSES TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.

SOME CHANGE IN THE JET STREAM PATTERN WILL OCCUR BEGINNING THE WEEK
OF JANUARY 7TH...ALLOWING THE DEEPEST ARCTIC AIR TO RETREAT BACK
INTO CANADA. A GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT...DUE TO ADVANCING
PACIFIC JET ENERGY AND THE NORTHEASTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED OVER TIME.

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEMS INDICATE
THIS MODERATING TREND IN THE LONGER TERM DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY.

PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH
SOME MODERATION FORECAST IN THE LONGER TERM.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED DEPENDING ON
TIMING AND PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM SYSTEMS. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE DUE TO PACIFIC JET
STREAM ENERGY. WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DURING
THE TWO WEEK PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OSCILLATION PHASE (NAO)
REMAINS POSITIVE WITH THE LACK OF STRONG BLOCKING UPSTREAM.

JANUARY 4TH WILL FEATURE A NOREASTER THAT WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND
BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN BASINS. SOME RAIN
COULD MIX IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN BASINS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE JANUARY 8TH AND 9TH ALONG WITH
MILDER AIR. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND QPF
AMOUNTS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR WITH 0.25 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF POSSIBLE.

A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
THE 11TH AND 12TH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM
JANUARY 8TH THROUGH JANUARY 16TH GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THE FORECAST INDICATES BEST CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOWPACK HAD INCREASED DURING DECEMBER DUE TO COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOWFALL. SNOW COVER REACHED
94 PERCENT OF THE NERFC AREA AS OF JANUARY 3RD.

...NEW YORK STATE...

SNOW COVERS THE GROUND ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK STATE.

SPOTTY SNOW DEPTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS NEW YORK
CITY...THE NEARBY NORTHERN SUBURBS AND ON LONG ISLAND...BUT MORE IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE GENERALLY A
TRACE UP TO 0.10 INCH.

HEADING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER BASIN...NEARBY CATSKILL AND
TACONIC REGIONS...SNOW DEPTHS VARY FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED AT TROY...PHOENICIA AND NISKAYUNA. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 0.40 INCH UP TO 1.20 INCHES.

EXAMINING THE FINGER LAKES REGION...SNOW DEPTHS MOSTLY RANGE FROM 3
TO 5 INCHES AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS 0.40 INCH UP TO 1.00 INCH.

LOOKING AT THE BUFFALO CREEKS...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 INCHES
NORTH OF BUFFALO AND 6 TO 18 INCHES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO.
LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW DEPTHS FROM 20 TO 27 INCHES ARE OBSERVED FROM
NEAR COLDEN TO GLENWOOD. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES.

THE GENESEE VALLEY REGION SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES...BUT
INCREASE TO 8 TO 14 INCHES IN THE ROCHESTER AREA. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY RANGE FROM 0.30 INCH TO UNDER 1
INCH...BUT INCREASE UP TO 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE ROCHESTER AREA.

BLACK RIVER BASIN AND ADJACENT TUG HILL SNOW DEPTHS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS VARY CONSIDERABLY. SNOW DEPTHS
RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 INCHES ACROSS THIS REGION...EXCEPT UP TO 54
INCHES AT REDFIELD AS OF JANUARY 3RD. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS UP
TO 6 INCHES AT TUG HILL.

LOOKING AT THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND MOHAWK VALLEY
REGIONS...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES...EXCEPT 10 TO 15
INCHES AROUND NORTH CREEK. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...THEN INCREASE TO 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES
APPROACHING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION OF NEW
YORK...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST DEPTHS
FOUND NEAR THERESA AND OGDENSBURG NY. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.

OBSERVING THE CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS REGION OF NEW YORK STATE...SNOW
DEPTHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 12 TO 22 INCHES EXCEPT UP TO 26 INCHES
AT OLD FORGE. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4
INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS FOUND ACROSS
THE PEAKS.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

SNOW COVER IS FOUND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH MORE EXPECTED IN
THE NEAR TERM OF THE OUTLOOK.

IN CONNECTICUT...SNOW DEPTHS HAD RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...EXCEPT
3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE LITCHFIELD HILLS INCLUDING NORFOLK. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGED FROM 0.40 INCH TO LESS THAN ONE
INCH...EXCEPT AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE LITCHFIELD HILLS.

IN RHODE ISLAND...SPOTTY SNOW COVER HAD EXISTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BUT SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO 1 TO 2.50 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF RHODE ISLAND. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS IN RHODE
ISLAND WERE GENERALLY NIL TO LESS THAN 0.50 INCH...BUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER.

IN MASSACHUSETTS... SPOTTY SNOW COVER LESS THAN ONE INCH HAD EXISTED
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD AS OF JANUARY
2ND.

ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES WITH HIGHEST TOTALS NEAR LAWRENCE. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
WERE GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH...APPROACHING ONE INCH NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER.

IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES SOUTH
AND 5 TO 8 INCHES NORTH. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGED FROM 0.50
INCH SOUTH UP TO 1.50 INCHES NEAR MOUNT MONADNOCK AND APPROACHING
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER.

IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR SPRINGFIELD AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS
NEAR THE VERMONT BORDER. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGED FROM 0.50
INCH SOUTH UP TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE VERMONT BORDER.

...VERMONT...

SNOW COVERS THE STATE OF VERMONT WITH MORE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
OF THE OUTLOOK.

SNOW DEPTHS VARY DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. THE LOWEST SNOW DEPTHS ARE
FOUND ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE HIGHEST DEPTHS ARE FOUND
ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN.

SNOW DEPTHS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT RANGE FROM 5 TO 9
INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES.

SNOW DEPTHS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT INCLUDING THE HIGH
TERRAIN INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 INCHES...LOCALLY UP TO THREE FEET
ACROSS THE PEAKS INCLUDING MOUNT MANSFIELD. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
PEAKS.

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW COVERS THE STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH MORE EXPECTED IN THE
NEAR TERM OF THE OUTLOOK.

SNOW DEPTHS VARIED DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. THE LOWEST SNOW DEPTHS
WERE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER MERRIMACK VALLEY REGION AND THE HIGHEST
SNOW DEPTHS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE UPPER MERRIMACK VALLEY AND THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

SNOW DEPTHS IN THE LOWER MERRIMACK VALLEY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE RANGED
FROM 7 TO 11 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGED FROM 1 TO 2.5
INCHES.

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE UPPER MERRIMACK VALLEY AND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS RANGED FROM 12 TO 20 INCHES WITH UP TO 23 INCHES AT MOUNT
WASHINGTON. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGED FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...EXCEPT NEAR 5 INCHES AT WOODSTOCK AND CONWAY.

SNOW DEPTHS IN FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DECREASED SOMEWHAT
APPROACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER. SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM 8 TO 14
INCHES AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES.

...MAINE...

SNOW COVERS THE STATE OF MAINE WITH MORE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM
OF THE OUTLOOK.

SNOW DEPTHS INCREASED RAPIDLY NOT FAR FROM SOME OF THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. SNOW DEPTHS IN EXTREME EASTERN MAINE RANGED FROM 2 TO 6
INCHES...THEN INCREASED TO 10 TO 15 INCHES JUST AWAY FROM THE COAST
TO THE FOOTHILLS. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PEAKS.

LATEST SNOW CORE DATA INDICATED AVERAGE 13 TO 14 INCH SNOW DEPTHS
AND TWO INCH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AT WEST WINTHROP...WEST
HALLOWELL...NORTH READFIELD AND LITCHFIELD MAINE...LOCATED NEAR AND
JUST NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST OF AUGUSTA.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGED FROM AROUND 0.50 INCH IN EXTREME
EASTERN MAINE NEAR CHERRYFIELD...THEN INCREASED QUICKLY TO 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND IN NORTHERN
MAINE.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX (PDSI) SPANS WEEKS TO MONTHS IN
DURATION IN DETERMINING THE LONG TERM MOISTURE CONDITIONS. THE
LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FROM 30 DECEMBER 2017 SHOWED
MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS.
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO ALSO INDICATED
EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS. VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK. UNUSUALLY MOIST
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OF BOTH NEW YORK STATE AND VERMONT AND THE UPPER MERRIMACK VALLEY
AND THE MONADNOCK REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES AS OF 02 JANUARY 2018 SHOWED DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WETTER THAN NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES WERE FOUND FROM
WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND ALSO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA OF NEW YORK STATE.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR UTILIZES THE LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT
MOISTURE INDEX (PDSI) AND NEAR TERM CROP MOISTURE INDEX (CMI). THE
LATEST ISSUANCE ON 30 DECEMBER 2017 INDICATED ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THE CATSKILLS TO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REGION OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND ALSO NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. ALSO
A NARROW AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WAS INDICATED IN CENTRAL
VERMONT AND ALONG COASTAL MAINE.

TAKING A LOOK AT GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
AND NEW ENGLAND COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
(USGS)...

IN NEW YORK STATE...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS RANGE FROM BELOW NORMAL ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. GROUNDWATER
LEVELS RANGED FROM NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
THE ADIRONDACK REGION.

GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE SLOWLY DECREASED OR REMAINED NEARLY STEADY
ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND LACK OF
RUNOFF DUE TO PERSISTENT SUBFREEZING OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...SEVERANCE HAD ITS LOWEST GROUNDWATER LEVEL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUNY ALBANY WAS APPROACHING THE 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR GROUNDWATER LEVELS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN ITS PERIOD OF
RECORD. BEAR MOUNTAIN STATE PARK WAS BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE AQUIFERS ON LONG ISLAND ALSO INDICATED WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
WESTBURY INDICATED ITS LOWEST GROUNDWATER LEVEL IN ITS PERIOD OF
RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE ADIRONDACKS REGION...BATAVIA AND
CALEDONIA RECENTLY REPORTED GROUNDWATER LEVELS WITHIN THE 75TH AND
90TH PERCENTILE RANGE. HARRISVILLE ALSO REPORTED A GROUNDWATER LEVEL
WITHIN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE. GAINESVILLE REPORTED
GROUNDWATER LEVELS WITHIN THE 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR HAVE SLOWLY DECREASED DUE
TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND PERSISTENT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MORE LIMITED RUNOFF.

IN CONNECTICUT...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE BELOW NORMAL. GREENWICH WAS
REPORTING ITS LOWEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MANSFIELD AND SALISBURY WERE WITHIN THE 10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN RHODE ISLAND...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL.
SOUTH KINGSTOWN WAS NEARING THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR GROUNDWATER
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BURRILLVILLE WAS WITHIN THE 25TH TO
50TH PERCENTILE FOR GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE...EXCEPT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD. LAKEVILLE...WEST BROOKFIELD AND PITTSFIELD WERE WITHIN THE
10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE FOR GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. SHEFFIELD AND MONTGOMERY WERE NEAR THEIR LOWEST MEDIAN
GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TOWNSEND WAS NEAR THE 50TH
PERCENTILE FOR GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE AQUIFERS ON OUTER CAPE COD WERE SHOWING ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...
MOSTLY BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FROM BARNSTABLE TO TRURO
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR HAVE SLOWLY DECREASED DUE
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND PERSISTENT SUBFREEZING OR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALLOWING FOR MORE LIMITED RUNOFF. HOWEVER IN
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MAINE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE GRADUALLY
INCREASED DUE TO SOME ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

IN VERMONT...GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL.
GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE AT PITTSFORD AND
BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR
NORMAL. GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE AT WARNER
AND BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE AT PEMBROKE AND GORHAM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN MAINE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR
NORMAL...EXCEPT ABOVE NORMAL IN PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN AND FAR
EASTERN MAINE. GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE BEYOND THE LOWEST MEDIAN
GROUNDWATER LEVEL AT NORTH WINDHAM AND AUGUSTA FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE
AT BAR HARBOR...CALAIS AND FORT KENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ELSEWHERE GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE WITHIN THE 25TH TO 50TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...RESERVOIR LEVELS...

THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF 7 LARGE
RESERVOIRS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WAS AT 75.4 PERCENT
CAPACITY AS OF 02 JANUARY 2018...WHICH WAS 12 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

THE SCITUATE RI RESERVOIR LEVEL WAS 281.13 FT AS OF JANUARY 3RD
2018. THIS LEVEL IS AROUND 2.9 FEET BELOW THE SPILLWAY.

IN MAINE...THE ANDROSCOGGIN RESERVOIRS ARE 12.9 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.
BRASSUA AND FLAGSTAFF ALONG THE KENNEBEC RIVER ARE NEAR NORMAL.
MOOSEHEAD IS NEAR NORMAL.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

STREAMFLOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTHEAST. MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE AFFECTED DUE
TO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT COLD.

NO RIVER FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE NERFC AREA SINCE LATE
OCTOBER AND EARLY NOVEMBER 2017.

IN NEW YORK STATE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THE GRATEST CONCENTRATION OF BELOW
NORMAL FLOWS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND THE NEW
YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY BELOW
NORMAL. LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FLOWS ARE OBSERVED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
IN CONNECTICUT. BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE FOUND IN RHODE ISLAND.
BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FLOWS ARE FOUND ACROSS MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
HOWEVER NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ARE FOUND ACROSS
THE PIONEER VALLEY REGION OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE....STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL.

ICE COVERAGE AND THICKNESSES ARE GREATER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AGAIN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SUBFREEZING COLD OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THERE ARE NO ICE JAMS REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

SIGNIFICANT FRAZIL ICE BUILDUP WAS FOUND ALONG THE KENNEBEC RIVER IN
AUGUSTA MAINE. CHANNELS ARE PARTIALLY OPEN IN THE SYRACUSE AREA.
PARTIAL ICE WAS SEEN ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR HARTFORD.

SIMULATED ICE THICKNESSES ARE MODELED AND CALCULATED USING FREEZING
DEGREE DAYS.

MODELED SIMULATIONS INDICATE GENERAL ICE THICKNESSES FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN BASINS INCLUDING THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND MERRIMACK VALLEY REGIONS.

MODELED SIMULATIONS INDICATE GENERAL ICE THICKNESSES FROM 8 TO 12
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK...IN
NORTHERN VERMONT AND IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. MODELED SIMULATED
THICKNESSES CURRENTLY INDICATE OVER ONE FOOT OF ICE IN NORTHERN
MAINE.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE LONGER TERM ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEAST.

SNOW COVERS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL PRIMARILY IN THE NEAR TERM. CHANCES EXIST FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS BUT CURRENT
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL. LONG TERM
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEW YORK INTO WESTERN CONNECTICUT.

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE LONGER TERM FOR THE BLACK RIVER...NEARBY TUG HILL...BUFFALO
CREEKS AND GENESEE RIVER IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. ABOVE
NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
MOSTLY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. IN ADDITION THE LONG TERM
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY MOIST AND THE CHANCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXISTS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
NEAR TERM. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT BUILDUP OF ICE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASINS. HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL TO TO NEAR NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OFFSET THIS THREAT
IN THE NEAR TERM. IF GREATER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND A
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND MATERIALIZE...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
DUE TO ICE JAMS WOULD INCREASE IN THE LONGER TERM.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT


        ***WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/NERFC/OPS/FP1_TODAY.JPG***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NERFC ON THURSDAY 18 JANUARY 2018.

END/STRAUSS
$$



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