Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 311856
ESGTIR
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
300 PM EDT Monday August 31 2015

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR September.

...WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...

The streamflow outlook is expected to be below normal across portions
of the upper Ohio Valley and near normal elsewhere in the Ohio River
Basin/Lake Erie drainage.
.....................................................................

...HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...

Very dry conditions have persisted this Summer in the upper Ohio Valley
and wet conditions over other watersheds in the Ohio Valley.

Climatologically...Autumn is the driest season of the year in the
Ohio River Basin. Continued below normal precipitation raises the
risk for drought conditions in the upper Ohio Valley.

.....................................................................

...PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...

Rainfall averaged much below normal during August in the upper Ohio Valley
and below normal elsewhere in the Ohio River Basin/Lake Erie drainage.

Hydrologically...the Ohio River Basin ended a nearly two month
stretch of flooding at some point in the Ohio Valley when the Wabash
River dropped below flood stage during the first half of August. This
stretch of high flows and flooding was probably unprecedented for the
summer months.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ohrfc/drought.html

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

Soil moisture is below normal in the upper Ohio Valley...and near
normal elsewhere in the Ohio River Basin.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...

Streamflows during the last half of August have averaged slightly
above normal in the lower Ohio Valley...and normal to below normal in
the upper Ohio Valley.

http://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

...ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR September

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
Trending neutral = near normal rainfall

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
negative = drier than normal

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
neutral = near normal rainfall

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
strengthening El Nino = drier than normal

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

...Summary...

The wet pattern over the lower and mid section of the Ohio River
Basin broke in early August...and flooding finally abated. The
developing drierer pattern is forecast to continue into September for the
Ohio Valley leading to receding streamflows back to normal values.

In the upper Ohio Valley...the dry pattern could have a negative impact
where below normal rainfall has occurred since the beginning of
Summer. Across these watersheds of the upper Ohio Valley...there is a risk
for drought conditions developing.
.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$
Wheeler



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