Extended Streamflow Prediction
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FGUS65 KSTR 131409
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COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
May 4, 2017

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 APR PRECIP     OCT-APR PREC    MAY 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES              95            120                95
ANIMAS                        60            110               105
LOWER SAN JUAN                95            120                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         APR FLOW       OCT-APR FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               145%            155%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF MAY 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                      110
VALLECITO                   142
LEMON                       111

TOTAL                       111

San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    225   105    255    235    215    200    215
  Pagosa Springs           May-Jul    161    89    192    172    152    137    180
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    395   104    450    415    370    350    380
  Carracas, nr             May-Jul    270    90    325    290    245    225    300
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     56   104     65     58     53     47     54
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  May-Jul     41    91     50     43     38     32     45
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     69   106     81     73     65     57     65
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  May-Jul     50    93     62     54     46     38     54
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    210   100    245    220    197    184    210
  Arboles, nr              May-Jul    136    89    171    145    123    110    153
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    205   106    250    210    193    170    194
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  May-Jul    160    94    205    165    148    125    171
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    695    95    820    725    660    585    735
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   May-Jul    460    81    585    490    425    350    565
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     53    96     68     56     48     40     55
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   May-Jul     43    88     58     46     38     30     49
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    440   106    555    475    410    365    415
  Durango                  May-Jul    360    99    475    395    330    285    365
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul   1100   100   1330   1160   1040    965   1100
  Farmington               May-Jul    770    88    995    825    705    630    880
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul     27   117     32     29     25     23     23
  Hesperus                 May-Jul     20   110     25     22   18.0   16.0   18.2
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul   1100   100   1380   1170   1020    950   1100
  Bluff, nr                May-Jul    770    90   1050    840    695    620    855
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     39   126     45     42     36     33     31
  Mancos, nr               May-Jul     29   121     35     32     26     23     24

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G.Smith



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