Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FNUS54 KMRX 230831
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
431 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A large amount of moisture will stream across the
Southern Appalachian region in advance of a strong low pressure
system that moves northeast out of the Mid Mississippi Valley today
and through the Eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. This will
result in a lengthy period of rain showers through the first half of
the day over western sections of the forecast area with a focus
across eastern sections around mid day into the afternoon. The
precipitation will taper a bit tonight, but there will still be a
chance for a few more showers ahead of a reinforcing shot of colder
air streaming southeast out of the northern plains. High
temperatures will be limited to the middle and upper 60s under the
blanket of rain filled clouds while lows drop to the middle and
upper 40s tonight.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-240945-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
431 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           Cloudy       MCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      63-68 (-11)  43-48 (-13)  55-60
RH % (24h trend)      62-67 (+22)  90-95 (-4)   45-50
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE 16 G46                 SW  8 G23
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SW  8 G31    SW  9 G23    W 10 G25
Precip type           showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     100          60           20
Precip duration       5            2            1
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   8 PM
Precip amount         1.18         0.13         0.02
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI                  3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3100                      6700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1100                      4600
Transport wnd (mph)   SE 18                     SW 18
Dispersion            16 Gen poor               72 Good
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE 19 G46                 SW 10 G23
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SW 10 G31    SW 12 G23    W 13 G25

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. West
winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Patchy frost. Lows in the lower
30s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Southwest winds less
than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid
30s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds less than
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-240945-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
431 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           Cloudy       PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      62-67 (-8)   42-47 (-11)  54-59
RH % (24h trend)      63-68 (+19)  87-92 (-7)   43-48
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE 22 G56                 W  6 G24
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S 12 G47     W 10 G24     W 11 G25
Precip type           showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     90           60           20
Precip duration       5            2            1
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         1.40         0.18         0.02
LAL                   2            1            1
LASI                  3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3200                      7100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   400                       4300
Transport wnd (mph)   SE 26                     W 15
Dispersion            7 Poor                    56 Gen good
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE 27 G56                 W  8 G24
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 15 G47     W 12 G24     W 14 G25

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in
the 30s to lower 40s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Patchy frost. Lows in the 30s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Highs in the lower 50s to mid
60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 70s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds less than
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds up to
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-240945-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
431 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      63-68 (-8)   41-46 (-12)  52-57
RH % (24h trend)      57-62 (+8)   87-92 (-7)   43-48
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE 23 G66                 SW 10 G26
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W  9 G30     W 11 G30     W 12 G28
Precip type           tstms        showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     100          20           20
Precip duration       5            1            1
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   8 AM
Precip end            Continuing   2 AM         Continuing
Precip amount         1.49         0.03         0.02
LAL                   2            1            1
LASI                  3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3600                      7500
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   600                       4500
Transport wnd (mph)   S 22                      SW 20
Dispersion            8 Poor                    73 Good
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE 29 G66                 SW 12 G26
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 12 G30     W 14 G30     W 15 G28

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 30s to mid 40s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s to mid 50s. West
winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Patchy frost. Lows in the 20s to
upper 30s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Highs in the upper 50s to mid
60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Southwest winds less
than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds less than
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-240945-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
431 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      63-68 (-12)  42-47 (-14)  56-61
RH % (24h trend)      57-62 (+7)   91-96 (-4)   40-45
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE 20 G56                 SW  8 G23
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W 11 G27     W  7 G20     W 11 G25
Precip type           tstms        NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     100          0            0
Precip duration       3
Precip begin          8 AM
Precip end            8 PM
Precip amount         1.70         0.00         0.00
LAL                   2            1            1
LASI                  4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3400                      7200
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1300                      5200
Transport wnd (mph)   S 18                      W 17
Dispersion            19 Gen poor               75 Good
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE 25 G56                 SW 10 G23
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 13 G27     W  9 G20     W 13 G25

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Patchy frost. Lows in the lower
to mid 30s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s.
South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 70s. Southwest winds
less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-240945-
Nantahala National Forest-
431 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

CLOUD COVER           MCldy        PCldy        PCldy
TEMP (24H TREND)      63-68 (-11)  40-45 (-15)  56-61
RH % (24H TREND)      57-62 (+7)   88-93 (-8)   39-44
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE 18 G46                 W  7 G23
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 11 G29     W  8 G20     W 11 G25
PRECIP TYPE           tstms        showers      NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     100          30           0
PRECIP DURATION       5            1
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         Continuing
PRECIP END            Continuing   2 AM
PRECIP AMOUNT         1.91         0.01         0.00
LAL                   2            1            1
LASI                  3                         4
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3200                      7400
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL)*   900                       5200
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 16                      W 16
DISPERSION            10 Poor                   70 Good
MAX LVORI             7                         4
33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE 22 G46                 W  9 G23
33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     W 14 G29     W 10 G20     W 13 G25

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Patchy frost. Lows in the 20s to
upper 30s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Clear, warmer. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s. South
winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 70s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds less than
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-240945-
East Tennessee District East-
431 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      65-70 (-12)  43-48 (-12)  57-62
RH % (24h trend)      60-65 (+17)  91-96 (-3)   43-48
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE 15 G43                 SW  7 G25
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SW  9 G29    SW 11 G29    W 11 G26
Precip type           showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     90           50           20
Precip duration       5            1            1
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   8 PM
Precip amount         1.02         0.08         0.01
LAL                   2            1            1
LASI                  3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3700                      6500
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2200                      5000
Transport wnd (mph)   S 20                      SW 18
Dispersion            36 Fair                   79 Good
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE 19 G43                 SW  9 G25
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SW 11 G29    SW 14 G29    W 14 G26

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Patchy frost. Lows in the 30s.
Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s.
South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Southwest winds less
than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds less than
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 30s.
Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-240945-
East Tennessee District West-
431 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      63-68 (-13)  44-49 (-13)  56-61
RH % (24h trend)      59-64 (+10)  93-98 (-3)   41-46
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE 12 G38                 SW  9 G23
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SW  8 G24    W  9 G24     W 10 G24
Precip type           showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     100          20           0
Precip duration       5            1
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         1.26         0.02         0.00
LAL                   2            1            1
LASI                  3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3900                      6600
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2700                      5300
Transport wnd (mph)   S 18                      SW 20
Dispersion            43 Gen good               89 Good
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE 15 G38                 SW 11 G23
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SW 11 G24    W 12 G24     W 13 G24

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s to mid 40s. West
winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s.
Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Highs in the upper 50s to mid
60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. West winds less than
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Cooler. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. North winds less than
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 30s.
Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-240945-
Cumberland District South-
431 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 /331 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      63-68 (-13)  43-48 (-15)  57-62
RH % (24h trend)      55-60 (+4)   91-96 (-5)   37-42
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SW 11 G37                 W  9 G25
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W 11 G26     W  7 G21     W 11 G25
Precip type           tstms        NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     100          0            0
Precip duration       3
Precip begin          8 AM
Precip end            8 PM
Precip amount         1.14         0.00         0.00
LAL                   2            1            1
LASI                  3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4100                      6700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2900                      5500
Transport wnd (mph)   SW 17                     W 18
Dispersion            44 Gen good               89 Good
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SW 14 G37                 W 11 G25
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 13 G26     W  9 G21     W 13 G25

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 50s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Southwest winds
less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Highs in the 60s. South winds
less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. West winds less than
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Cooler. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. North winds less than
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 30s.
Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$



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