Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
933 AM PST Fri Dec 15 2017

ECC029-161145-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
933 AM PST Fri Dec 15 2017

...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR THE
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS DUE TO GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...

...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...

Offshore winds continue to weaken this morning allowing for the
expiration of the Red Flag Warnings for Los Angeles and Ventura
counties.

After the passage of an upper level disturbance, there will be
increasing upper level wind support and cold air advection that will
 bring strengthening north to northeast winds across the mountains
and adjacent foothills of Santa Barbara county (including higher
elevations of the Thomas Fire) late tonight through Saturday
evening, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph being common. Due to the
stronger winds in the upper atmosphere, there is the potential for
locally stronger gusts across exposed ridgetops on Saturday. The
combination of these gusty winds with humidities generally ranging
between 10 and 20 percent will likely result in critical Red Flag
conditions across the Santa Barbara county mountains. Gusty north to
northeast winds up to 30 mph will also filter down into the Santa
Barbara south coast, which could bring significant impacts to lower
elevations of the Thomas Fire. In addition, there will be increasing
northerly winds on Saturday across the Ventura county mountains,
especially near the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors.

For the remainder of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, the flow will
likely shift to the northeast by Saturday evening, with a greater
threat of  increased Santa Ana winds and low humidities late
Saturday night into Sunday when gusts between 35 and 55 mph will be
possible. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for late Saturday night
through Sunday evening for the mountains and valleys of Los Angeles
and Ventura counties, with critical conditions possibly extending to
coastal areas. An additional Santa Ana wind event  is possible next
Thursday into Friday.


...Discussion from Monterey...

...Gusty northerly winds will combine with very low humidity  values
Friday evening through Sunday morning...

...Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 pm Friday evening through
10 am Sunday morning for gusty winds and low humidity values for
fire weather zones 507, 511, 512, 517, and 518...

An upper level high pressure area over California  will move west
out over the eastern Pacific late this week allowing a mainly dry
cold front and upper level trough to move southeast  across the
district Friday night into early Saturday morning. A red flag
warning is in effect Friday evening through Sunday  morning due to
gusty northerly winds combining with very low  humidity values over
the hills and mountains in the wake of this  front. Dry weather then
continues this weekend with generally poor recoveries in the
mountains. It`s a low confidence forecast at  this point, but a dry
pattern may turn to a wet weather pattern by the middle of next
week.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



$$

ECC028-161145-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
933 AM PST Fri Dec 15 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR THE
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS DUE TO GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...

Offshore winds continue to weaken this morning allowing for the
expiration of the Red Flag Warnings for Los Angeles and Ventura
counties.

After the passage of an upper level disturbance, there will be
increasing upper level wind support and cold air advection that will
 bring strengthening north to northeast winds across the mountains
and adjacent foothills of Santa Barbara county (including higher
elevations of the Thomas Fire) late tonight through Saturday
evening, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph being common. Due to the
stronger winds in the upper atmosphere, there is the potential for
locally stronger gusts across exposed ridgetops on Saturday. The
combination of these gusty winds with humidities generally ranging
between 10 and 20 percent will likely result in critical Red Flag
conditions across the Santa Barbara county mountains. Gusty north to
northeast winds up to 30 mph will also filter down into the Santa
Barbara south coast, which could bring significant impacts to lower
elevations of the Thomas Fire. In addition, there will be increasing
northerly winds on Saturday across the Ventura county mountains,
especially near the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors.

For the remainder of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, the flow will
likely shift to the northeast by Saturday evening, with a greater
threat of  increased Santa Ana winds and low humidities late
Saturday night into Sunday when gusts between 35 and 55 mph will be
possible. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for late Saturday night
through Sunday evening for the mountains and valleys of Los Angeles
and Ventura counties, with critical conditions possibly extending to
coastal areas. An additional Santa Ana wind event  is possible next
Thursday into Friday.


$$

ECC031-161145-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
933 AM PST Fri Dec 15 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...

...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...

Offshore winds continue to weaken this morning allowing for the
expiration of the Red Flag Warnings for Los Angeles and Ventura
counties.

After the passage of an upper level disturbance, there will be
increasing upper level wind support and cold air advection that will
 bring strengthening north to northeast winds across the mountains
and adjacent foothills of Santa Barbara county (including higher
elevations of the Thomas Fire) late tonight through Saturday
evening, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph being common. Due to the
stronger winds in the upper atmosphere, there is the potential for
locally stronger gusts across exposed ridgetops on Saturday. The
combination of these gusty winds with humidities generally ranging
between 10 and 20 percent will likely result in critical Red Flag
conditions across the Santa Barbara county mountains. Gusty north to
northeast winds up to 30 mph will also filter down into the Santa
Barbara south coast, which could bring significant impacts to lower
elevations of the Thomas Fire. In addition, there will be increasing
northerly winds on Saturday across the Ventura county mountains,
especially near the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors.

For the remainder of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, the flow will
likely shift to the northeast by Saturday evening, with a greater
threat of  increased Santa Ana winds and low humidities late
Saturday night into Sunday when gusts between 35 and 55 mph will be
possible. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for late Saturday night
through Sunday evening for the mountains and valleys of Los Angeles
and Ventura counties, with critical conditions possibly extending to
coastal areas. An additional Santa Ana wind event  is possible next
Thursday into Friday.


$$

ECC024-161145-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
933 AM PST Fri Dec 15 2017


Offshore winds continue to weaken this morning allowing for the
expiration of the Red Flag Warnings for Los Angeles and Ventura
counties.

After the passage of an upper level disturbance, there will be
increasing upper level wind support and cold air advection that will
 bring strengthening north to northeast winds across the mountains
and adjacent foothills of Santa Barbara county (including higher
elevations of the Thomas Fire) late tonight through Saturday
evening, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph being common. Due to the
stronger winds in the upper atmosphere, there is the potential for
locally stronger gusts across exposed ridgetops on Saturday. The
combination of these gusty winds with humidities generally ranging
between 10 and 20 percent will likely result in critical Red Flag
conditions across the Santa Barbara county mountains. Gusty north to
northeast winds up to 30 mph will also filter down into the Santa
Barbara south coast, which could bring significant impacts to lower
elevations of the Thomas Fire. In addition, there will be increasing
northerly winds on Saturday across the Ventura county mountains,
especially near the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors.

For the remainder of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, the flow will
likely shift to the northeast by Saturday evening, with a greater
threat of  increased Santa Ana winds and low humidities late
Saturday night into Sunday when gusts between 35 and 55 mph will be
possible. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for late Saturday night
through Sunday evening for the mountains and valleys of Los Angeles
and Ventura counties, with critical conditions possibly extending to
coastal areas. An additional Santa Ana wind event  is possible next
Thursday into Friday.


$$

ECC032-161145-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
933 AM PST Fri Dec 15 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...

...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...

Offshore winds continue to weaken this morning allowing for the
expiration of the Red Flag Warnings for Los Angeles and Ventura
counties.

After the passage of an upper level disturbance, there will be
increasing upper level wind support and cold air advection that will
 bring strengthening north to northeast winds across the mountains
and adjacent foothills of Santa Barbara county (including higher
elevations of the Thomas Fire) late tonight through Saturday
evening, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph being common. Due to the
stronger winds in the upper atmosphere, there is the potential for
locally stronger gusts across exposed ridgetops on Saturday. The
combination of these gusty winds with humidities generally ranging
between 10 and 20 percent will likely result in critical Red Flag
conditions across the Santa Barbara county mountains. Gusty north to
northeast winds up to 30 mph will also filter down into the Santa
Barbara south coast, which could bring significant impacts to lower
elevations of the Thomas Fire. In addition, there will be increasing
northerly winds on Saturday across the Ventura county mountains,
especially near the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors.

For the remainder of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, the flow will
likely shift to the northeast by Saturday evening, with a greater
threat of  increased Santa Ana winds and low humidities late
Saturday night into Sunday when gusts between 35 and 55 mph will be
possible. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for late Saturday night
through Sunday evening for the mountains and valleys of Los Angeles
and Ventura counties, with critical conditions possibly extending to
coastal areas. An additional Santa Ana wind event  is possible next
Thursday into Friday.


$$

ECC030-161145-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
933 AM PST Fri Dec 15 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...

...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...

Offshore winds continue to weaken this morning allowing for the
expiration of the Red Flag Warnings for Los Angeles and Ventura
counties.

After the passage of an upper level disturbance, there will be
increasing upper level wind support and cold air advection that will
 bring strengthening north to northeast winds across the mountains
and adjacent foothills of Santa Barbara county (including higher
elevations of the Thomas Fire) late tonight through Saturday
evening, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph being common. Due to the
stronger winds in the upper atmosphere, there is the potential for
locally stronger gusts across exposed ridgetops on Saturday. The
combination of these gusty winds with humidities generally ranging
between 10 and 20 percent will likely result in critical Red Flag
conditions across the Santa Barbara county mountains. Gusty north to
northeast winds up to 30 mph will also filter down into the Santa
Barbara south coast, which could bring significant impacts to lower
elevations of the Thomas Fire. In addition, there will be increasing
northerly winds on Saturday across the Ventura county mountains,
especially near the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors.

For the remainder of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, the flow will
likely shift to the northeast by Saturday evening, with a greater
threat of  increased Santa Ana winds and low humidities late
Saturday night into Sunday when gusts between 35 and 55 mph will be
possible. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for late Saturday night
through Sunday evening for the mountains and valleys of Los Angeles
and Ventura counties, with critical conditions possibly extending to
coastal areas. An additional Santa Ana wind event  is possible next
Thursday into Friday.


$$



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