Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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782
FNUS74 KAMA 271251
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast FOR JA RX BURN...GFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Amarillo TX
651 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on February 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...

.DISCUSSION...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop at the burn
site between noon and 7 PM CST today. Minimum relative humidity values
are forecast to fall to around 15 percent and 20 foot southwest winds
are expected to increase to between 15 and 20 mph with some higher
gusts this afternoon. No precipitation is expected at the burn site
through Tuesday.

.TODAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor /1000 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /20000 knot-ft/ increasing to excellent to
                    excellent (110000-165000 knot-ft).
Temperature.........41 at ignition...Max 75.
LAL.................1.
RH..................65 percent at ignition...Min 14 percent.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Transport winds.....West 1 to 9 mph increasing to southwest 17 to
                    25 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL at ignition, otherwise 0 ft AGL
                    increasing to 2500 ft AGL late in the morning,
                    then increasing to 5000 ft AGL late in the
                    morning increasing to 6500-7500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon decreasing to 5500 ft AGL.
20-foot winds.......Winds west at 3 mph at ignition, otherwise
                    Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming southwest
                    5 to 15 mph in the late morning and early
                    afternoon increasing to 13 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 OR low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.

Time (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........MCLEAR CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR
Weather Cov.....
Weather Type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............41     57     69     75     74
RH..............65     35     21     13     15
20 Ft Wind......W 3    SW 8   SW 14  SW 16  SW 13
20 Ft Wind Gust.5      10     20     25     20
Chc of Pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
Haines Index....2      2      4      4      4
VentR KtFt/1000.1      75     165    150    120

.TONIGHT...

Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (45000-104500 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to poor to fair (0-18000 knot-ft)
                    early in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 45.
LAL.................1.
RH..................Max 58 percent.
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 22 mph becoming west 5 to 10
                    mph early in the evening.
Mixing height.......3000-4500 ft AGL decreasing to 0-1500 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........5 OR moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.

Time (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  Midngt 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather Cov.....
Weather Type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............69     60     56     53     50     48
RH..............18     24     30     35     42     47
20 Ft Wind......SW 10  SW 7   SW 7   SW 8   W 8    W 8
20 Ft Wind Gust.15     10     10     10     10     10
Chc of Pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines Index....5      5      5      4      4      4
VentR KtFt/1000.105    18     0      0      0      0

.TUESDAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-42000 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent to excellent (247000-340000 knot-ft).
Temperature.........Max 77.
LAL.................1.
RH..................Min 14 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 12 mph increasing to 43 to 45
                    mph.
Mixing height.......0-1000 ft AGL increasing to 6500-8000 ft AGL.
20-foot winds.......Windy. Southwest winds 8 to 17 mph with gusts
                    to around 30 mph increasing to 28 to 31 mph
                    with gusts to around 55 mph.
Haines Index........5 OR moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.

Time (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  Noon   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather Cov.....
Weather Type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............46     46     58     69     76     77
RH..............53     55     36     22     16     14
20 Ft Wind......SW 8   SW 14  SW 21  SW 25  SW 30  SW 30
20 Ft Wind Gust.10     25     35     45     50     50
Chc of Pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines Index....4      4      4      5      5      5
VentR KtFt/1000.0      0      15     81     228    332

$$
Forecaster...Andrade
Requested by...JASON WHISLER
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702807.3/AMA



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