Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FNUS74 KAMA 221246
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast FOR WILLOWCREEK RX...GFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Amarillo TX
746 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on March 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
While there was a chance for drizzle early this morning, these chances will
dissipate by ignition time. Light north to northeast winds are expected
at the burn site this morning. Winds are expected to continue to rotate
clockwise around the dial before reaching southeasterly as early 3 PM. Once
winds become southeasterly we expected 20-ft winds to increase into the
10 to 20 mph range and continue through the late evening hours. Haines Index
for today reaches 6 which shows potential for plume dominated fire growth.
Minimum relative humidity this afternoon is expected to drop to the mid-30s.
By midnight, winds will start to diminish below 10 mph while shifting out
of the south. Thursday will see strong south winds of 15 to 30 mph. If burning
activities continue past 3 PM then the risk for thunder at the burn site
greatly increases.

.TODAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (5000-24000 knot-ft).
Max temperature.....Around 74.
LAL.................1.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    drizzle early in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......1000-2500 ft AGL.
20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........6 OR high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.

Time (CDT)      10 AM  Noon   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY
Weather Cov.....
Weather Type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............48     55     69     72
RH..............83     67     40     37
20 Ft Wind......E 8    E 7    SE 7   S 12
20 Ft Wind Gust.15     10     10     15
Chc of Pcpn (%).10     10     10     10
Haines Index....5      5      6      6
VentR KtFt/1000.9      10     12     23

.TONIGHT...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (5500-28000 knot-ft).
Min temperature.....Around 53.
LAL.................1.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Transport winds.....South 13 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......500-2000 ft AGL.
20-foot winds.......South winds 14 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........6 OR high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.

Time (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  Midngt 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY
Weather Cov.....
Weather Type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............72     66     62     59     57     55
RH..............38     47     56     62     69     77
20 Ft Wind......S 15   SE 14  SE 15  SE 17  S 18   S 17
20 Ft Wind Gust.25     20     25     25     25     25
Chc of Pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
Haines Index....6      5      5      5      5      5
VentR KtFt/1000.28     24     7      6      6      8

.THURSDAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (8500-57500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent to excellent (145000-154000 knot-ft).
Max temperature.....Around 81.
LAL.................1.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Transport winds.....South 20 to 28 mph increasing to 30 to 33 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-2000 ft AGL increasing to 4500-5500 ft AGL.
20-foot winds.......Windy. South winds 16 to 24 mph with gusts to
                    around 40 mph increasing to 28 to 30 mph with
                    gusts to around 45 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 OR moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.

Time (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  Noon   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather Cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather Type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Temp............54     53     61     71     77     80
RH..............83     89     67     42     32     28
20 Ft Wind......S 16   S 17   S 20   S 22   S 24   S 30
20 Ft Wind Gust.25     25     30     35     40     45
Chc of Pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     20     20
Haines Index....5      4      4      4      5      5
VentR KtFt/1000.9      19     33     58     84     154

$$
Forecaster...Morris
Requested by...ARCHIE STONE
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704747.2/AMA


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