Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 151108
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR OGEMAW FUEL BREAKS...MICHIGAN DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
708 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON AUGUST 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...MAINTAINING
PLEASANT LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........63 AT IGNITION...MAX 74.
RH..................62 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 0-1100 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 4000-5100 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (800).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........5   6   5   4   3   3   3   3
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............58  63  67  69  70  72  73  73
RH..............62  52  43  36  32  29  28  28
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5
SMOKE DISP......300 500 600 600 600 700 700 800

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57.
RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........4   8   9   9   9   9   14  23  28  38  58  68
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............72  70  68  65  61  59  57  57  57  57  57  58
RH..............29  31  34  40  48  55  64  69  75  75  77  75
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 76.
RH..................MIN 69 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........74     90     88     84     82     78
WEATHER COV.....       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............57     58     62     69     73     76
RH..............80     86     90     81     73     69
20 FT WIND......SW 3   SW 3   SW 6   W 8    W 8    W 9
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      15     15     20     20

$$
FORECASTER...ANDREW SULLIVAN
REQUESTED BY...DON KLINGLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140815.OGEMA.01/APX





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