Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FNUS73 KBIS 281317
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for N. Pelican...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
817 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on April 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will remain over the area today with
sunny skies expected. Expect light north winds at ignition becoming
northeast around 10 mph by 11 am. Expect some gusts up to
15 mph during max heating from mid to late afternoon.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......4200-6100 ft AGL increasing to 6100-6400 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (37800-60800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   2   4   2   8   7   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............45  46  49  51  52  53  55
RH..............33  24  22  21  18  17  15
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 4.8 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.1
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.10  10  12  12  12  10  10
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 27.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds up to 7 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......5700-5900 ft AGL decreasing to 200-300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 10 mph shifting to the east around 2
                    mph late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    south 2 to 5 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (14800-53000 knot-ft) decreasing
                    to poor (400 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........3         5         13        22
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............55        44        34        31
RH..............15        34        53        61
20 FT wind......NE 7G10   NE 5G10   SE 3G5    S 3G5
Mix hgt (ft)....5900      2100      300       200
Transport wind..N 10      N 8       E 2       S 2
Haines index....5         5         5         5

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south up to 8 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......200-1500 ft AGL increasing to 5400-6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (600-41500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 (low) to (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........27        33        40        50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............27        39        52        58
RH..............69        53        33        26
20 FT wind......S 4G5     S 6       S 8G10    S 7G10
Mix hgt (ft)....200       2900      5400      6600
Transport wind..S 5       S 5       SW 6      SW 8
Haines index....5         5         4         5

$$
Forecaster...HAMILTON
Requested by...Eric Hoff
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707945.0/BIS
.EMAIL ehoff@tnc.org


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