Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 250039
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
624 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MDT ON APRIL 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY. THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-55.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-17%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-18 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 9200-10200 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 30-35
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY(60-65%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36.
MAX HUMIDITY........58-61%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH
                    UNTIL 0300...THEN SOUTH 8-9 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-30 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN AROUND 15
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  10KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

04/25-06 35  0  0 34 50 SSW  9 15 3 1   W 51   652  SW 10  5760 P
04/25-07 36  0  0 38 43 SSW  9 14 3 1   W 51  1930  SW 15 33951 P
04/25-08 36  0  0 44 36   S  9 14 3 1 WSW 51  3208  SW 18 62142   G
04/25-09 37  0  0 49 31   S  9 15 3 1 WSW 51  4487  SW 23 90334   G
04/25-10 42  0  0 53 27 SSW 12 18 3 1 WSW 51  6468  SW 26160798     E
04/25-11 47  0  0 55 25 SSW 14 22 3 1 WSW 52  8448  SW 30231263     E
04/25-12 52  2  0 56 24  SW 16 25 3 1 WSW 52 10429  SW 33301728     E
04/25-13 53  2  0 56 22  SW 17 28 3 1 WSW 52 10216  SW 33293674     E
04/25-14 54  2  0 56 22  SW 18 29 3 1 WSW 52 10003  SW 33285620     E
04/25-15 55  2  0 56 22  SW 18 30 3 1 WSW 51  9790  SW 32277566     E
04/25-16 55  2  0 55 23  SW 18 29 3 1 WSW 52  9405  SW 32266334     E
04/25-17 55  2  0 54 26  SW 17 28 3 1 WSW 52  9020  SW 32255102     E
04/25-18 55  3  1 51 32  SW 16 25 3 1 WSW 52  8635  SW 32243870     E
04/25-19 56  3  1 48 37  SW 15 24 3 1 WSW 54  5848  SW 28164129     E
04/25-20 57  3  1 44 43  SW 13 21 3 1 WSW 55  3060  SW 24 84389   G
04/25-21 58  3  1 42 47 SSW 12 18 3 1 WSW 58   272  SW 20  4648 P
04/25-22 58  3  1 40 50 SSW 10 16 3 1 WSW 55   313  SW 18  4724 P
04/25-23 59  3  1 40 50 SSW  9 14 3 1  SW 53   353  SW 16  4800 P
04/26-00 60  4  1 40 50 SSW  8 13 3 1  SW 51   394  SW 14  4876 P
04/26-01 60  4  1 40 51 SSW  8 13 3 1  SW 49   308  SW 15  3938 P
04/26-02 59  4  1 40 52 SSW  8 14 3 1  SW 48   221  SW 16  3001 P
04/26-03 58  4  1 39 55 SSW  9 15 3 1  SW 48   135 SSW 17  2063 P
04/26-04 57  4  1 37 59 SSW  9 15 3 1  SW 49   328 SSW 17  5004 P
04/26-05 56  4  1 36 61 SSW 10 16 3 1  SW 51   522 SSW 17  7946 P
04/26-06 55 23  5 37 59   S 10 16 3 1  SW 52   715  SW 17 10887 P
04/26-07 55 23  5 40 55   S 12 17 3 1  SW 49  2202 SSW 21 50019  F
04/26-08 55 23  5 45 47   S 12 18 2 1  SW 47  3688 SSW 25 89151   G
04/26-09 55 23  5 50 41   S 13 21 2 1  SW 45  5174 SSW 29128283    V
04/26-10 55 23  5 52 37   S 14 22 2 1 SSW 45  6509 SSW 29163250     E
04/26-11 55 23  5 52 37 SSW 15 24 3 1 SSW 45  7844 SSW 29198217     E
04/26-12 83 43 20 53 35 SSW 16 25 3 4 SSW 45  9179 SSW 29233184     E
04/26-13 83 43 20 53 36 SSW 16 26 3 4 SSW 45  9182 SSW 28221109     E
04/26-14 83 43 20 53 37 SSW 16 25 3 4 SSW 44  9186 SSW 26209034     E
04/26-15 83 43 20 53 38 SSW 15 24 3 4 SSW 44  9190 SSW 24196959     E
04/26-16 83 43 20 51 42 SSW 14 22 3 4 SSW 39  8733 SSW 23177261     E
04/26-17 83 43 20 49 47  SW 13 21 3 4 SSW 36  8276  SW 22157563     E
04/26-18 90 67 48 47 51  SW 12 18 3 4 SSW 31  7819  SW 21137865    V
04/26-19 90 67 48 44 57 WSW 10 17 3 4 SSW 26  6640  SW 21116816    V
04/26-20 90 67 48 41 61 WSW 10 16 3 4   S 21  5462 WSW 21 95768   G
04/26-21 90 67 48 38 67 WSW  9 15 3 1   S 16  4283 WSW 20 74720   G
04/26-22 90 67 48 37 70 WSW  8 14 3 1   S 13  4011   W 20 69805   G
04/26-23 90 67 48 36 73   W  8 13 2 1   S  9  3739   W 20 64890   G
04/27-00 00 85 76 35 75   W  8 13 2 1   S  6  3467   W 20 59975  F
04/27-01 00 85 76 34 76   W  9 14 2 1  SW  8  3306   W 23 64642   G
04/27-02 00 85 76 33 77   W 10 16 2 1  NW  9  3145 WNW 25 69308   G
04/27-03 00 85 76 32 78   W 12 18 2 1   N 10  2985  NW 29 73974   G
04/27-04 00 85 76 31 81   W 13 21 2 1   N 13  2961  NW 31 79549   G
04/27-05 00 85 76 30 85   W 14 22 2 1   N 15  2938  NW 33 85124   G
04/27-06 92 72 56 30 85   W 15 24 2 1   N 16  2914  NW 36 90699   G
04/27-07 92 72 56 30 84 WNW 16 25 2 1 NNW 17  3214  NW 36100776    V
04/27-08 92 72 56 31 79 WNW 16 26 2 1 NNW 17  3515  NW 37110852    V
04/27-09 92 72 56 32 75 WNW 17 28 2 1 NNW 17  3816  NW 37120929    V
04/27-10 92 72 56 33 71 WNW 18 30 2 1  NW 16  4425  NW 36137067    V
04/27-11 92 72 56 34 67 WNW 20 31 2 1  NW 14  5035  NW 36153205     E
04/27-12 96 58 35 35 64   W 21 33 2 1  NW 13  5645  NW 35169343     E
04/27-13 96 58 35 36 61   W 22 35 2 1 WNW 14  6071 WNW 36186153     E
04/27-14 96 58 35 36 61   W 22 36 2 1 WNW 15  6498 WNW 36202964     E
04/27-15 96 58 35 36 61 WNW 22 36 2 1   W 17  6925 WNW 37219774     E
04/27-16 96 58 35 36 62 WNW 22 36 2 1   W 20  7071 WNW 37228933     E
04/27-17 96 58 35 36 62 WNW 22 36 2 1   W 22  7216 WNW 38238092     E
04/27-18 96 43 20 36 61 WNW 22 35 2 1   W 24  7362 WNW 39247251     E

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
10KFT WIND  - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...COOPER
REQUESTED BY...CASEY CHEESBROUGH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140425.BIGCR.02/BOU



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