Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FNUS75 KBOU 271405
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR EMERALD MOUNTAIN PILES...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
700 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MST ON FEBRUARY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  AT LOWER LEVELS...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
HAS SETTLED OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE COLD
AIR EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 10000 FEET MSL.  A STRONG INVERSION WILL BE
PRESENT AT THAT LEVEL ALL DAY TODAY.  THIS WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXING LAYER AND HENCE SMOKE DISPERSION.  DISPERSION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN POOR ALL DAY DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW MIXING
HEIGHTS.  MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL SEE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE DRY AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.  DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THEN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 1000...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL
                    1000...THEN DRY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....13-18.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-70%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN WEST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1900...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 2300...THEN SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SNOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....ZERO TO 5 BELOW.
MAX HUMIDITY........100%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST UP TO 5-10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....15-20.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-75%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR EMERALD MOUNTAIN PILES.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

02/27-06 65 29  8 -3100  SW  3  3 3 1   W 30  1318  SW  2  3137 P
02/27-07 63 29  8 -1100 WSW  3  3 2 1   W 32  1347 WSW  3  3606 P
02/27-08 63 29  8  1100 WSW  3  3 2 1   W 33  1377 WSW  3  4075 P
02/27-09 63 29  8  6100   W  3  3 2 1   W 32  2316   W  6 16869 P
02/27-10 59 29  8 13 79 WNW  5  5 2 1   W 31  3255   W  9 29663 P
02/27-11 59 20  4 18 67 WNW  5  5 2 1   W 30  4195   W 12 42457  F
02/27-12 59 20  4 21 60 NNW  5  5 2 1   W 30  4565   W 13 49890  F
02/27-13 54 20  4 22 58 NNE  3  3 2 1   W 29  4935   W 14 57323  F
02/27-14 54 20  4 22 57 ENE  3  3 2 1   W 29  5306   W 14 64756   G
02/27-15 54 20  4 21 59   E  3  3 2 1   W 29  3920 WSW 10 44019  F
02/27-16 54 20  4 20 60 ESE  2  2 2 1   W 29  2534 SSE  7 23281 P
02/27-17 54 28  8 17 67 ESE  2  2 2 1   W 29  1149  SE  2  2543 P
02/27-18 54 28  8 13 78 SSE  2  2 2 1   W 26  1357 SSE  3  5162 P
02/27-19 74 28  8  8 94  SW  2  2 2 1 WSW 23  1566  SW  6  7781 P
02/27-20 74 28  8  4100   W  3  3 2 1 WSW 20  1774 WSW  7 10400 P
02/27-21 74 28  8  3100   W  5  5 2 1 WSW 21  1842 WSW  8 13689 P
02/27-22 76 28  8  4100   W  5  5 3 1 WSW 22  1909 WSW 10 16977 P
02/27-23 76 24  5  4100   W  6  6 3 1 WSW 23  1976 WSW 12 20265 P
02/28-00 76 24  5  4100   W  7  7 3 1 WSW 23  1914 WSW 12 19098 P
02/28-01 76 24  5  3100   W  7  7 3 1   W 22  1851 WSW 12 17931 P
02/28-02 76 24  5  2100   W  7  7 3 1   W 22  1789   W 10 16764 P
02/28-03 76 24  5  2100   W  6  6 3 1   W 20  1927   W 10 16740 P
02/28-04 76 24  5  3 95   W  5  5 3 1   W 18  2065   W  9 16715 P
02/28-05 88 31 10  3 95   W  3  3 3 1   W 17  2203   W  9 16690 P
02/28-06 88 31 10  5 92   W  2  2 3 1   W 17  2202   W  7 13631 P
02/28-07 88 31 10  6 95 WNW  2  2 3 1   W 17  2202  NW  6 10573 P
02/28-08 88 31 10  7100 WNW  2  2 3 1 WSW 17  2202 NNW  3  7514 P
02/28-09 88 31 10 11 94 NNW  2  2 3 1 WSW 17  2385   N  5  8539 P
02/28-10 88 31 10 16 80  NE  3  3 3 1 WSW 16  2568 ENE  5  9564 P
02/28-11 94 54 29 20 71   E  5  5 3 1  SW 17  2751   E  5 10589 P
02/28-12 94 54 29 22 66   E  6  6 3 1  SW 17  2677   E  5 11423 P
02/28-13 94 54 29 22 67   E  6  6 3 1  SW 18  2603 ESE  6 12257 P
02/28-14 94 54 29 21 69   E  6  6 3 1  SW 22  2529 ESE  6 13091 P
02/28-15 94 54 29 19 74   E  6  6 3 1  SW 26  2329 ESE  6 11695 P
02/28-16 94 54 29 17 79 ENE  6  6 3 1  SW 32  2130 ESE  6 10300 P
02/28-17 98 67 48 14 88 ENE  5  5 3 1 WSW 36  1931   E  6  8904 P
02/28-18 98 67 48 12 93 ENE  3  3 3 1 WSW 36  1559   E  5  6771 P
02/28-19 98 67 48 10 99   E  3  3 3 1 WSW 33  1187   E  5  4637 P
02/28-20 98 67 48  9100   E  2  2 3 1 WSW 32   814   E  3  2504 P
02/28-21 98 67 48  9 96   CALM  1 3 1 WSW 35   994 ESE  3  3107 P
02/28-22 98 67 48 10 89   CALM  1 3 1 WSW 38  1174 SSE  3  3710 P
02/28-23 91 61 39 10 87   CALM  1 3 1 WSW 40  1353   S  3  4313 P
03/01-00 91 61 39  9 90   CALM  1 3 1 WSW 38  1397   S  5  5381 P
03/01-01 91 61 39  8 93  SW  2  2 3 1 WSW 36  1441 SSW  5  6449 P
03/01-02 91 61 39  7 97   W  3  3 3 1 WSW 33  1485  SW  6  7517 P
03/01-03 91 61 39  7 97   W  5  5 3 1 WSW 35  1465  SW  7  9192 P
03/01-04 91 61 39  7 98 WSW  5  5 2 1 WSW 37  1445  SW  9 10867 P
03/01-05 91 29  8  7100 WSW  5  5 2 1 WSW 41  1425 WSW 10 12542 P
03/01-06 91 29  8  7100   W  5  5 2 1 WSW 48  1868 WSW 12 20396 P
03/01-07 91 29  8  7100   W  3  3 3 1 WSW 55  2311 WSW 14 28250 P
03/01-08 91 29  8  9100   W  3  3 3 1 WSW 60  2755   W 15 36104 P
03/01-09 91 29  8 13 91 WSW  3  3 3 1 WSW 60  2708 WSW 14 32920 P
03/01-10 91 29  8 18 77   S  3  3 2 1   W 59  2660 WSW 13 29736 P
03/01-11 93 40 18 22 68 SSE  3  3 2 1   W 55  2613 WSW 12 26552 P
03/01-12 93 40 18 24 64 SSE  3  3 2 1 WSW 52  2675  SW 12 26340 P
03/01-13 93 40 18 25 63 SSE  5  5 2 1 WSW 48  2736  SW 12 26128 P
03/01-14 93 40 18 24 67 SSE  5  5 2 1 WSW 44  2797  SW 10 25916 P
03/01-15 93 40 18 21 77 SSE  5  5 2 1  SW 37  2457 SSW  9 21046 P
03/01-16 93 40 18 18 88 SSE  3  3 3 1  SW 31  2116   S  8 16175 P
03/01-17 94 41 18 15100 SSE  3  3 3 1 SSW 30  1775   S  7 11305 P
03/01-18 94 41 18 12100 SSE  3  3 3 1  SW 38  1626   S  7 10240 P
03/01-19 94 41 18 11100 SSE  3  3 3 1 WSW 48  1477   S  7  9176 P
03/01-20 94 41 18 11100   S  3  3 3 1 WSW 59  1328   S  7  8112 P
03/01-21 94 41 18 12100   S  3  3 3 1 WSW 63  1256   S  8  8150 P
03/01-22 94 41 18 13 93   S  3  3 3 1 WSW 66  1185 SSW  8  8189 P
03/01-23 91 43 20 14 88 SSW  3  3 3 1  SW 66  1114 SSW  8  8228 P
03/02-00 91 43 20 13 92 SSW  3  3 3 1  SW 67  1707 SSW 17 33349 P
03/02-01 91 43 20 13 94 SSW  3  3 2 1  SW 66  2299  SW 25 58471  F
03/02-02 91 43 20 12100  SW  3  3 2 1 WSW 63  2892  SW 33 83592   G
03/02-03 91 43 20 12100  SW  3  3 2 1  SW 61  2846 WSW 30 73333   G
03/02-04 91 43 20 13100 WSW  3  3 3 1  SW 58  2800 WSW 25 63073   G
03/02-05 85 40 18 14100 WSW  3  3 3 1  SW 54  2753 WSW 22 52814  F

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...DANKERS
REQUESTED BY...TODD RUZICKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150227.EMERA.01/BOU



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.