Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 251108
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR TEXAS BLOCK HOUSE...DCNR-FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
708 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0706 EDT ON JULY 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGH HEAT INDICES JUST OVER 100
DEGREES TODAY WILL PRECEDE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STRONG...TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LINGERING HIGH HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AIR WITH MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 9
                    MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0800...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1000...THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3200-5000 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    5800-7700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
                    TO 4600 FT AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 13 TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............69  69  69  70  70  70  68  67  66  65  65
WEATHER COV.........    ISO ISO CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC
WEATHER TYPE........    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............    SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC
TEMP................72  74  77  79  81  84  86  89  90  90  89
RH..................81  79  74  69  67  61  57  52  50  50  52
20 FT WIND DIR......W   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......5   5   6   7   8   9   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.....            10  10  15  15  20  20  20  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 5.0 6.7 7.7 7.1 5.8 4.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....5   7   9   13  15  17  18  20  20  18  17
LAL.................3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 2000...THEN 1-8 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 0100...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 600-2300 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............60  49  43  41  38  35  33  33  33  33  33  33
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC ISO ISO ISO ISO SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............CHC CHC ISO ISO ISO ISO SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................87  84  82  80  77  75  73  72  70  70  70  68
RH..................55  59  63  67  71  76  81  84  87  87  87  93
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......8   7   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.5 4.7 4.7 4.1 3.2 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....17  18  18  17  16  14  13  12  10  10  10  10
LAL.................3   3   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5300-5900 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............22  22  22  22  22  22  22  22  22  22  22  22
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................67  69  71  74  76  79  80  82  84  85  86  85
RH..................93  87  81  71  64  56  52  47  43  43  42  43
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......5   5   5   5   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....                10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.0 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.3 5.7 5.9 5.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  12  13  14  15  15  15  15  14  13  12  12
LAL.................2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/LAMBERT
REQUESTED BY...ERIC FRITZINGER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160725.TEXAS.01/CTP



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