Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 201617
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Dark...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
917 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 1000 MST on January 20.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Cooler air will be filtering into the region today with winds on the
increase.  Expect high temps to occur by early afternoon and start to
slowly fall this afternoon. A strong upper low will be moving across
the NM/CO border region over the next 24 hours and bring gusty winds
and a chance for rain and snow.  Snow amounts should be light.
Much cooler air will be in place for the next couple of days
as highs tomorrow struggle to get out of the 30s with continued
gusty winds.  Temperatures will bounce around through next week but
generally remain at or below normal. Winds will not be a big concern
after Sunday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 58 by noon then temperatures slowly falling into
                    upper 40s by sunset.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds becoming west-southwest 12 to 17 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......1700-2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 21 mph increasing to southwest 32 to
                    33 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (49900-83000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........5      10     20     25
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............54     58     55     52
RH..............16     15     20     25
20 ft wind......SW 8   SW 14  W 17   SW 16
20 ft wind gust.20     30     30     25
Mix hgt (ft)....1700   2800   2800   2800
Transport wind..W 30   W 36   W 33   SW 31
Haines index....3      3      2      2
Vent Rate.......FAIR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers and snow showers in the evening, then
                    scattered snow showers after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 24.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Southwest winds 14 to 21 mph with gusts
                    to around 35 mph shifting to the west 24 to 26
                    mph with gusts to around 45 mph in the late
                    evening and overnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
Sky (%).........45     50     67     74     74     74
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSN   RNSN   RNSN   SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     20     40     40     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............48     40     36     32     28     26
RH..............33     72     88     92     95     75
20 ft wind......SW 14  SW 20  SW 20  W 25   W 25   W 25
20 ft wind gust.25     35     45     45     45     45
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 34.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West-northwest winds 20 to 29 mph with gusts to
                    around 45 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL increasing to 5200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 39 to 40 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (95400 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (181200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
Sky (%).........60        55        45        35
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............24        27        33        34
RH..............70        63        50        38
20 FT wind......W 25G45   W 27G45   W 26G45   W 29G45
Mix hgt (ft)....2800      2800      5200      5200
Transport wind..W 38      W 40      W 39      W 40
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vent Rate.......GOOD      GOOD      EXNT      EXNT

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Wendall Hosuer
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1800631.1/EPZ
.EMAIL nmadc@fs.fed.us



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