Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 191407
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR 4 WELL...BIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
807 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0755 MDT ON AUGUST 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL START TO DEVELOP BY AROUND NOON OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE BURN SITE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THAT SLOW MOVEMENT MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF
HEAVIER RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WEST OF THE BURN SITE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL PUSH
THE MAIN PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAINES INDICES
VERY LOW (2 OR 3) TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT TIL NOON...THEN 40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS.
VENTILATION.........FAIR (45000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................40 PERCENT TIL 2400...THEN 20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 3 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 KNOTS.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 5 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 4 KNOTS.
VENTILATION.........POOR (28000 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...PARK
REQUESTED BY...BELA HARRINGTON
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140819.4WELL.01/EPZ





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