Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FNUS74 KEPZ 260003
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Corral...Gila National Forest
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
603 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1900 MDT on June 25.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Moisture will slowly be getting pushed eastward over the next couple
of days.  After another active afternoon and evening today, with
locally heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail with storms, coverage
will mainly be confined to the eastern and northern areas Monday. By
Tuesday, westerly low level winds will push moisture to past the Rio
Grande valley with any activity over Otero and Hudspeth counties.
Stronger zonal flow will kick in toward the end of the week with
some breezy conditions along with temperatures near the 100 degree
mark for the lowlands.  Depending on how quick fuels dry out, could
have some areas near critical conditions on Thursday.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    isolated showers and thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2400, then 3.
Min temperature.....50-54.
Max humidity........89-94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    south 5 to 8 mph late in the evening. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......200-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 26 to 27 mph becoming northwest 4 to 5
                    mph early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    south 2 to 3 mph after midnight shifting to the
                    northeast around 1 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........83     83     83     67     67     67
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).40     40     40     20     20     20
LAL.............5      5      5      3      3      3
Temp............80     73     65     60     55     53
RH..............32     41     54     67     81     88
20 ft wind......N 12   NE 9   E 8    SE 7   SE 6   S 6
20 ft wind gust.20     15     15     15     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   1600   1600   200    200    200
Transport wind..N 29   W 14   W 2    NW 5   SW 3   S 1
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Vent Rate.......POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    numerous showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................4 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....77-81.
Min humidity........30-35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming southwest 5 to 10
                    mph late in the morning. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......8900 ft AGL increasing to 12400 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 1 mph shifting to the west 6 to 7
                    mph early in the morning, then shifting to the
                    south around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (59000-80400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........68        68        76        76
Weather cov.....SCTTRD    SCTTRD    NUMRUS    NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD    SCTTRD    NUMRUS    NUMRUS
Chc of pcpn (%).50        50        60        60
LAL.............5         5         5         5
Temp............52        65        76        78
RH..............90        55        37        34
20 FT wind......S 5G10    S 4G5     SW 5G10   SW 6G10
Mix hgt (ft)....8900      8900      12400     12400
Transport wind..NE 1      W 2       NW 8      W 5
Haines index....3         3         3         4
Vent Rate.......FAIR      FAIR      GOOD      GOOD

$$
Forecaster...NOVLAN
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1711287.6/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us


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