Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FNUS74 KEWX 251453
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for Lyda North...USFWS
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
953 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on September 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Low clouds persist over the prescribed burn site this morning with
light southeast wind near 5 mph at ground level. This same speed will
be near the 20-foot level through late morning but increase to near 15 mph
as clouds slowly decrease. Low-level mixing will initially be poor
but slowly improve through the afternoon as temperatures increase and
cloud cover reduces. Humidity levels will remain elevated through the
day, only dropping to near 50-55 percent. A few isolated to scattered
showers will occur through the afternoon near the burn site but coverage
and duration should be low if directly impacted.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
CWR.................2 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0700, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1200-2300 ft AGL increasing to 5100-5500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........63  66  69  72  71  71  70  70
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............76  78  81  83  85  87  87  86
RH..............85  79  69  65  61  55  55  57
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   7   6   6   7   6
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   5   4   4   5   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.    5   5       5   5       5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.3 3.4 3.9 4.3 5.1 5.5 5.1
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.9   10  10  12  13  14  15  16
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................2 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2800-4400 ft AGL decreasing to 1800-2300 ft AGL
                    after midnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........69  69  72  74  75  71  79  79  91  93  97  97
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............84  82  80  78  77  75  75  74  74  74  73  73
RH..............59  63  67  74  76  82  84  87  87  87  90  90
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.4 4.0 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.17  17  17  17  17  16  16  15  15  14  14  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   2   2

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 0700, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds 5 to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1000-1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........98  98  86  87  88  89  90  91  89  86  84  87
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............72  72  72  73  75  78  80  83  84  85  85  84
RH..............93  93  97  97  90  82  74  65  63  59  59  61
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.                            5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.0
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   NE
Transp wind spd.13  12  10  10  9   9   8   8   8   8   9   9
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Allen
Requested by...Jeff Adams
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1716211.0/EWX
.EMAIL Jeffrey_Adams@fws.gov



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