Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FNUS73 KGRR 121311
FWSGRR

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR FLAT RIVER RX...MDNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
911 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKLY...WINDS INCREASE...AND SOME RESIDUAL DRY
AIR HANGS ON EARLY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHER
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES MAY
DIP TOWARDS 30 PERCENT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE IS
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY CONTAIN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS IN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
EXCEED 40 MPH.

A WET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. WAVES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED NORTH OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
                    AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 69.
RH..................53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    BECOMING SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 9 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 21 TO 29
                    MPH...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 14 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1300-1800 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 3700 FT AGL FROM LATE MORNING
                    THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO
                    6800-7300 FT AGL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 3200-3700 FT AGL LATE IN THE DAY.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-300 (POOR TO GOOD) INCREASING TO 800
                    (EXCELLENT) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 1400 (EXCELLENT)
                    THROUGH MID AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 1900-2100
                    (EXCELLENT) THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DECREASING TO
                    1500 (EXCELLENT) DECREASING TO 800 (EXCELLENT)
                    LATE IN THE DAY DECREASING TO 200 (FAIR).

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........59     69     77     80     85
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............50     55     61     66     67
RH..............53     47     39     36     41
20 FT WIND......E 10   SE 15  SE 15  S 15   S 15
20 FT GUST......
HAINES INDEX....4      4      5      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63.
RH..................MIN 81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-2900 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....100-500 (POOR TO GOOD) INCREASING TO 500-600
                    (GOOD TO EXCELLENT) LATE IN THE DAY.

$$
FORECASTER...DUKE
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140412.FLATR.01/GRR






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