Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 271140
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Jones Lake Prescribed Fire...Jones Lake State Park
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
740 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure offshore will continue today with dry
conditions and well above normal temperatures. A weakening
cold front will approach from the west and stall across the
central Carolinas tonight and will dissipate on Fri.

Southwest 5 to 10 mph winds will back to a southerly direction
at 10 to 15 mph with some gusts up to 20 mph during this
afternoon and evening.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight...Low.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 11 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......5500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph, increasing to 18 to 23
                    mph late in the morning.
Max Vent Rate.......126499 mph-ft.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12  14  17  20  23  26  29  33  37  42
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............65  69  72  76  78  80  81  81  85  84
RH..............88  78  68  60  56  53  51  51  46  49
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   8   9   10  11  11  11  10
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.5 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.1
Trans Wnd Dir...S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Trans Wnd Spd...7   10  15  18  21  21  21  22  23  22
VR MPH-FT*1000..6   15  34  57  80  95  105 119 126 111
Stability.......C   C   C   C   D   D   D   D   D   D

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent), then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 68.
Max humidity........99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Min Mixing Hgt......200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 20 mph, becoming southwest 8 to 10
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Min Vent Rate.......1954 mph-ft.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........46     54     61     67     74     68
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............82     75     71     69     69     69
RH..............54     70     84     92     96     98
CHC Pcpn (%)....10     20     20     20     20     20
20 ft wind......S 10   S 9    S 9    S 8    S 7    S 7
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....3800   900    200    200    300    200
Transport wind..SW 20  S 12   S 10   S 10   S 9    S 9
VR MPH-FT*1000..74     10     2      2      2      2
Stability.......D      D      D      D      D      D

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Max Mixing Hgt......5700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph, increasing to 17 to 21
                    mph in the afternoon.
Max Vent Rate.......117874 mph-ft.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........63     63     56     49     43     38
Weather cov.....                            S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........                            S CHC
Temp............69     70     77     84     87     88
RH..............98     94     71     57     50     48
CHC Pcpn (%)....10     10     10     10     20     10
20 ft wind......SW 6   SW 6   SW 7   SW 8   SW 8   S 7
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....300    700    1800   3600   5400   5500
Transport wind..SW 8   SW 8   SW 13  SW 17  SW 21  SW 21
VR MPH-FT*1000..2      5      22     63     113    113
Stability.......D      C      C      C      C      C

$$
Forecaster...Hoehler
Requested by...John Privette
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707845.0/ILM
.EMAIL john.privette@ncparks.gov



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