Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 081056
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST COUNCIL RIDGE...NC STATE PARK LAWA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
656 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JULY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...NONE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6000-7300 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND
                    20 MPH LATE.
MAX ADI.............65.
MAX LVORI...........5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (5060-57844 MPH-FT)...INCREASING
                    TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT (66815-118104 MPH-FT) LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............28     31     38     35
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................85     89     91     91
RH..................64     53     49     49
20 FT WIND..........SW 6   SW 7   SW 8   S 10
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     20
MIX HGT (FT)........3600   6000   7300   6800
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 16  SW 14  SW 14  SW 17
LVORI...............2      1      1      1
ADI.................11     46     49     60
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...58     83     101    118

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 100-1800 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 22 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12
                    MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
MAX ADI.............62.
MAX LVORI...........6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (68310-97059
                    MPH-FT)...DECREASING TO POOR TO GOOD
                    (1380-36570 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............32     32     31     31     33     31
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................89     84     81     79     77     75
RH..................54     66     75     82     86     90
20 FT WIND..........S 10   S 8    S 7    S 6    SW 6   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....20     15     15     15     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........4700   1800   500    100    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 21  S 21   S 15   S 10   SW 9   SW 7
LVORI...............1      3      3      4      5      6
ADI.................62     37     16     7      6      5
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...97     37     7      1      2      2

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 97.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5900-7800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 16 MPH.
MAX ADI.............54.
MAX LVORI...........6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (229-44850 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (71645 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............28     28     27     27     27     31
WEATHER COV.........                            S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                            S CHC  S CHC
TEMP................75     79     86     92     95     95
RH..................90     81     61     47     42     44
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   SW 5   SW 6   SW 8   SW 9   SW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     15     20     20     20
MIX HGT (FT)........100    300    1800   4500   7000   7800
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 7   SW 8   W 14   W 16   SW 15  SW 15
LVORI...............6      4      2      1      1      1
ADI.................3      5      9      47     52     54
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...1      2      25     72     105    116

$$
FORECASTER...KREITNER
REQUESTED BY...JONATHAN SHOT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140708.EASTC.01/ILM






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