Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FNUS73 KILX 101310
FWSILX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MF-PATTON WOODS...CHAMPAIGN COUNTY FOREST PRESERVE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
810 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 1 PM AND 2 PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
WIND WILL WEAKEN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE 12 TO 16 MPH
RANGE...THEN WEAKEN ABOUT 4 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 13 TO 22 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 12
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 13 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
                    MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200-4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (0-43585 MPH-FT) INCREASING TO
                    GOOD TO GOOD (63019-87400 MPH-FT) IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)          9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............46     55     71     71     73
WEATHER COV.........              CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP................54     62     66     68     67
RH..................59     46     45     42     43
20 FT WIND..........SW 14  SW 18  SW 16  W 12   W 8
20 FT WIND GUST.....35     35     35     25     15
EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 10  SW 13  SW 12  W 9    W 6
EYE LEVEL GUST......35     35     35     25     15
MIX HGT (FT)........600    1600   3100   4500   4200
TRANSPORT WIND......S 23   SW 26  SW 25  W 21   W 14
CWR.................10     10     50     50     50
HAINES INDEX........4      3      3      3      3
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...14     44     79     87     63

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1200 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (0-40710 MPH-FT).

TIME (CDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............76     72     52     36     31     33
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
TEMP................64     59     54     50     47     44
RH..................46     55     64     74     76     82
20 FT WIND..........NW 7   N 6    N 5    NE 4   NE 3   N 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     10     10     10     5      5
EYE LEVEL WIND......NW 5   N 4    N 4    NE 3   NE 2   N 2
EYE LEVEL GUST......15     10     10     10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........3300   1900   1200   800    100    BLW100
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 10  N 7    N 8    NE 10  NE 10  NE 8
CWR.................50     20     20     20     10     10
HAINES INDEX........3      3      3      3      3      4
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...41     9      2      5      3      0

$$
FORECASTER...SHIMON
REQUESTED BY...NATHAN HUDSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140410.MFPAT.01/ILX






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